Scrapping the Northern Territory's indoor mask mandate may trigger a spike in COVID-19 cases, or it may cause the number of daily cases to plateau, says a leading epidemiologist.
On Monday, NT Chief Minister Michael Gunner said the indoor mask mandate could be lifted within days following a trend of declining case numbers and hospitalisations.
"We don't have a date but it's definitely sooner rather than later — like very soon," he told Mix 104.9.
The number of coronavirus patients in Territory hospitals continued to fall today, with NT Health reporting 86 hospitalisations compared to 96 yesterday.
Nine patients are now requiring oxygen — down from 17 yesterday — and four patients are in the intensive care unit.
Speaking to ABC Radio Darwin on Tuesday morning, Nancy Baxter, an epidemiologist from the University of Melbourne, said it was "really good news that the numbers are coming down".
However, she said removing protections such as face masks would likely lead to more transmission.
"Potentially, it might lead to another peak," she said.
"But more likely, what it will do is cause the decline to plateau, so we end up with the numbers not going down as quickly anymore."
Professor Baxter said it was the right time to ease restrictions in the NT, but said she was concerned about "losing so many at the same time".
Last month, the NT opened its doors to both unvaccinated travellers and international tourists following months of hard border rules.
Professor Baxter recommended Territorians continue wearing masks after the mandate lifts, as an extra precaution.
"The public health message is that masks remain a highly effective way of reducing transmission, both in terms of yourself getting it and giving it to others," she said.
Health unions confirm COVID-19 pressure is easing
As the number of COVID-19 patients in Territory hospitals continues to fall, so has the pressure on over-worked health workers, according to NT nurses and doctors unions.
Cath Hatcher, the NT branch secretary of the Australian Nursing and Midwifery Federation, said she was no longer calling for an emergency Code Brown alert given hospital numbers had stabilised.
The Australian Medical Association's NT branch president Rob Parker agreed a 'Code Brown' alert was no longer necessary.
However, Ms Hatcher said many nurses and midwives were still taking double shifts and working long hours due to staff shortages related to both COVID and pre-existing strains on the NT's health system.
For that reason, she said it was too early to lift the mask mandate.
"Give the nurses a bit of a break and ease their workload from day to day by keeping the masks for at least a few months, until the numbers are almost in the double digits," Ms Hatcher said.
Dr Parker said it was "always a balance" when deciding to lift a restriction like face masks.
"It may cause an increase [in cases], but given the wave has come and gone, I'm not that concerned," he said.
"I think we were bloody lucky we had Omicron rather than Delta. [Omicron] is more transmissible but less virulent.
"There may be other variants that turn up."
In a statement, NT Health said 565 new COVID-19 cases were recorded Territory-wide in the 24 hours to 8pm on Monday, of which 514 were detected using rapid antigen tests (RATs).
Of today's total COVID-19 cases, there were 339 cases recorded in the Top End region, as well as 109 in Central Australia, 19 in East Arnhem, 70 in the Big Rivers region, 14 in the Barkly region and 14 that are under investigation.
The number of active cases in the NT is 4,243, according to the NT government.
