Get all your news in one place.
100’s of premium titles.
One app.
Start reading
Nottingham Post
Nottingham Post
Sport
Sarah Clapson

Nottingham Forest's promotion chances boosted as supercomputer predicts final Championship table

A nine-point week has put Nottingham Forest right in the thick of the promotion race as the end of the season fast approaches.

Seeing off Blackpool, Coventry City and Birmingham City after returning from the international break made it five league wins in a row for the Reds. They are also unbeaten in 10 in the Championship ahead of Friday’s trip to Luton Town.

Huddersfield Town’s victory over the Hatters on Monday pushed Forest down a place, into fourth. But Steve Cooper’s side are just two points adrift of the Terriers, with two games in hand.

Read more: Forest 'target' approach laid out as promotion push reaches decisive period

Read more: Championship spending power league table as Forest braced for FFP overhaul

They have also closed the gap on second-placed Bournemouth to six points. And there is still the clash between the two sides to come, in what will be the Reds’ penultimate fixture.

Plenty of Forest fans have hope of snatching an automatic spot. But predicting how the final table will look is not easy.

According to the data experts at FiveThirtyEight, the chances of Cooper’s men achieving promotion has increased on the back of their last three results. However, they are predicting a third-placed finish, behind Fulham and the Cherries.

Prior to their last three games, the Reds were forecast to finish sixth with 73 points. They were said to have a 55 percent chance of making the play-offs and an 18 percent chance of reaching the Premier League.

Now, FiveThirtyEight have Forest finishing third with 77 points. Their chances of making the play-offs have gone up to 82 percent, while they now have a 37 percent chance of securing promotion.

FiveThirtyEight have forecast the final table, including end-of-season probabilities for relegation, making the play-offs, being promoted and winning the Championship. Their predictions are based on their Soccer Power Index, which, they say, are “our best estimate of a team’s overall strength”.

They add: “In our system, every team has an offensive rating that represents the number of goals it would be expected to score against an average team on a neutral field, and a defensive rating that represents the number of goals it would be expected to concede. These ratings, in turn, produce an overall SPI rating, which represents the percentage of available points — a win is worth 3 points, a tie worth 1 point, and a loss worth 0 points — the team would be expected to take if that match were played over and over again.”

Here’s how the final table looks, based on their data. A team’s current points tally is included in brackets.

Predicted final Championship table

1 Fulham (83 points) - 94 points

2 Bournemouth (73 points) - 84 points

3 Nottingham Forest (67 points) - 77 points

4 Huddersfield Town (69 points) - 76 points

5 Sheffield United (65 points) - 73 points

6 Luton Town (65 points) - 72 points

7 Middlesbrough (62 points) - 71 points

8 Blackburn Rovers (63 points) - 70 points

9 Millwall (61 points) - 68 points

10 Coventry City (59 points) - 66 points

11 QPR (59 points) - 65 points

12 Swansea City (57points) - 65 points

13 West Bromwich Albion (57 points) - 65 points

14 Preston North End (57 points) - 64 points

15 Stoke City (55 points) - 62 points

16 Blackpool (53 points) - 61 points

17 Cardiff City (49 points) - 56 points

18 Birmingham City (45 points) - 51 points

19 Bristol City (45 points) - 51 points

20 Hull City (44 points) - 50 points

21 Reading (37 points) - 42 points

22 Barnsley (29 points) - 36 points

23 Derby County (28 points) - 34 points

24 Peterborough United (28 points) - 32 points

Will Forest achieve promotion? Have your say in the comments below

Sign up to read this article
Read news from 100’s of titles, curated specifically for you.
Already a member? Sign in here
Related Stories
Top stories on inkl right now
One subscription that gives you access to news from hundreds of sites
Already a member? Sign in here
Our Picks
Fourteen days free
Download the app
One app. One membership.
100+ trusted global sources.