What is the deal about?
The government has established new rules to smooth post-Brexit trade between Great Britain and Northern Ireland. This is to assuage Democratic Unionist party concerns that the Irish Sea border has undermined the region’s position in the UK. In return for these concessions the DUP has agreed to restore power sharing after a two-year boycott that has paralysed the Stormont assembly and executive.
What has changed?
The deal promises to remove routine checks on goods from Great Britain that are destined to remain in Northern Ireland. It also promises to bolster the so-called Stormont brake that gives some oversight to EU laws, and to affirm Northern Ireland’s constitutional position in the UK.
The DUP leader, Sir Jeffrey Donaldson, says the deal removes the Irish Sea border. The government says it alters the “operation” of the Windsor framework – agreed with the EU last year – without altering its “fundamentals”. The changes seem minor enough to not require intervention from Brussels.
“The deal is being spun as if it is new,” said Katy Hayward, a Brexit expert at Queen’s University Belfast. The terms of use of the Stormont brake remained unchanged and thus limited and the commitment to monitor for possible UK-EU divergence was already in the Windsor framework, she said. What was new was the promise to have it overseen by a ministerial group, she said.
Will Brexiters be happy?
Brexit-supporting Tory MPs pressed ministers in the Commons on whether the changes would hinder the UK’s ability to diverge from EU laws. Publicly, these MPs have expressed frustration that Northern Ireland will continue to remain a member of the EU’s single market, with all the obligations that entails. But privately, influential Brexiters are said to be preparing to vote with the government on Thursday. It means Rishi Sunak is likely to get this deal through with virtually no Tory opposition.
What does Labour say?
Labour will support the legislation, which makes things easier for the government and demonstrates a cross-party desire to get the Northern Ireland executive back up and running. Hilary Benn told the Commons the changes were “a great achievement”. As far as Labour is concerned, anything that irons out remaining Brexit trade barriers in Northern Ireland before the next election is a good step because it reduces the number of problems inherited by a future Labour government.
Will the EU be happy?
Assuming there are no booby-traps that unravel the Windsor agreement, Brussels will be relieved to see peace on this part of the Brexit front, and will certainly welcome the restoration of Stormont. “I do not anticipate any particular difficulties in respect of the EU side,” said Ireland’s foreign minister, Micheál Martin. He welcomed the deal and said this was a moment “we need to grasp”.
Will all of the DUP be happy?
No. A significant minority oppose the deal, including Westminster MPs such as Sammy Wilson. “When the Northern Ireland assembly sits, ministers and assembly members will be expected by law to adhere to and implement laws which are made in Brussels, which they had no say over and no ability to amend, and no ability to stop,” he told the Commons. “This is a result of this spineless, weak-kneed, Brexit-betraying government, refusing to take on the EU and its interference in Northern Ireland.”
In addition to unrest within his party, Donaldson will be concerned that some supporters will defect to the hardline Traditional Unionist Voice, which has denounced the deal as a sellout. It has proved deft at siphoning DUP votes.
What happens next?
The government is to cement the deal by fast-tracking legislative measures through Westminster on Thursday, paving a recall of the Stormont assembly. It is expected to meet on Saturday to elect an assembly speaker and appoint an executive led by Sinn Féin’s Michelle O’Neill as first minister and a DUP member as deputy first minister, reflecting the results of a 2022 assembly election. Devolved government should be fully functioning by next week and able to access a £3.3bn financial package that was tied to Stormont’s restoration.
