General elections should be an intensive debate about the country’s future, as well as a reckoning for the record of any incumbent government.
At stake is how to make Britain’s economy stronger, rebuild our public services, expand opportunity and exercise power and influence in the world.
If Labour wins, of course we would inherit a very difficult situation. That is testament to the record of the Tories over the past 14 years. And if they won again, nothing would change.
We know we can’t solve the country’s problems overnight but the point is to make a start. To begin to make a difference, on the economy, on living standards, on the NHS, on how we view ourselves and our country.
The chance to liberate our governance from the obsessions of Tory factions is itself no small prize. What do the five Tory families think? Will the Tory right be sending letters to the 1922 Committee? Wouldn’t it be great not to have to care about the impact of all that on the way the country is run?
Despite these pressing issues, there is a danger that the debate in this election becomes consumed by polls and specifically by the idea that the outcome is somehow pre-determined.
It is one thing for polls to take a snapshot of public opinion. It’s another entirely for them to influence voting behaviour. Particularly when it is reinforced by a cynical voter suppression strategy from the Tory party telling people the outcome is known so they don’t have to bother to vote.
No way is this election a done deal. The headlines about the clutch of MRP polls disguise a huge level of uncertainty.
Up to 20% of voters taking part in these polls say they have yet to make their minds up or are uncertain how to vote. This could easily be four to five thousand people in each constituency. No wonder one MRP this week said there are 175 seats which are too close to call.
The reason the Tories are talking down their prospects is to try to persuade swing voters that they either don’t need to vote or, because of their argument the result is decided, to persuade voters they can afford to vote for one of the minor parties where the seat is a Labour/ Tory battle.
Don’t fall for it. Many of these contests are very tight. There are dozens of seats which will be decided by just a few hundred votes. No one should assume anything is decided. In the vast majority of constituencies in England and Wales, if people don’t want to wake up to a Tory MP on 5 July, the only way to make sure of that is to vote Labour. Staying at home or voting for one of the minor parties makes it more likely that the Tory candidate will win.
Remember, too, the size of Labour’s task. In 2019, we fell to our worst defeat in 85 years. And while that result was particularly bad, history tells us that Labour victories are rare. Only three times in 100 years has Labour won a majority in parliament from opposition. We have a real chance this time, but only if we work night and day for every vote, only if we fight the election as if our lives depend on it, and only if no one thinks they can assume the result.
Change will only happen if you vote for it isn’t just a slogan. It’s an inescapable iron political fact. So ignore the polls. Think about whether you want five more years of the Tories – a future where nothing changes because the Tory future is the same as the Tory past. Or change and the chance to rebuild with Labour.
That’s the choice at this election and the saving grace is that it is you, the voters, and not the pollsters or the cynics in Tory Central Office who get to decide the future.
• Pat McFadden is Labour’s national campaign coordinator
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