What’s new: Vehicles powered by renewable energy will account for 90% of China’s new car sales by 2035, amounting to about 38 million units, an industry association said.
New energy vehicle (NEV) sales globally are expected to surpass 70 million units by 2035, or 70% of total cars sales, China Automotive Battery Innovation Alliance said in a report Thursday.
By 2035, China-made NEVs will account for 54% of the global market, with Europe and the United States. taking about 22% and 11% of the market shares, the alliance projected. Southeast Asia countries will account for 6%.
Global power battery installation will reach 3,905 gigawatt-hours by 2035, with China accounting for 1,952 GWh, it said.
The context: The battery alliance’s prediction is largely in line with forecasts by the International Energy Agency (IEA), which expects NEVs to make up two-thirds of global auto sales by 2035, assuming all countries implement their energy transition and carbon neutrality plans as scheduled.
But the agency has warned that the momentum for NEV growth shows signs of slowing, especially in Europe and the U.S. In 2023, global NEV sales were more than 14 million units, with China accounting for about 9.5 million.
In the first quarter this year, China’s NEV sales increased 35% to 1.9 million units, while the growth rate in Europe was only 5% and in the U.S., 15%, according to the IEA.
High prices and inadequate charging infrastructure are significant obstacles to NEV sales growth, the agency said.
While China has addressed these issues to boost domestic NEV sales, its surging exports have drawn concerns from trading partners and triggered rising trade barriers.
The U.S. and European Union have imposed high tariffs and are starting anti-subsidy investigations against Chinese-made electric vehicles. These measures could slow down moves to new energy vehicles, the battery alliance said.
Contact reporter Han Wei (weihan@caixin.com)
