Although Week 18 in the NFL — as of publishing this on Wednesday morning — will go on as scheduled (per the league), there’s absolutely zero doubt that everyone involved, from players to coaches to fans and beyond, will be thinking of Buffalo Bills safety Damar Hamlin.
There’s no easy way to transition into looking at the power rankings ahead of the final week of the 2022 regular season, but know that we’re not callously forgetting that while concentrating, for the moment, on a game.
With 11 of the 14 postseason spots claimed, that leaves three bids for seven remaining teams. Home-field advantage and a Wild Card bye also remains unresolved in each conference, leaving contenders few guaranteed opportunities to rest starters and begin looking ahead.
Across 16 games, the league has separated itself into “haves,” “have-nots,” and a creamy middle of teams capable of looking like world beaters one week and crashing into the earth’s surface like a Dwayne Johnson-anchored superhero movie the next. That, in turn, has led us to our latest vain attempt to rank these franchises 1-32 based on what we’ve seen on the field.
As a programming note, the holidays kept us from publishing the week after Christmas, so “Last Week’s Rank” is really from Week 15. Here’s how every team stands following Week 17.
32
Houston Texans
Last week’s rank: 31
One more loss and Bryce Young is theirs.
31
Indianapolis Colts
Last week’s rank: 32
The Colts offense is a machine consisting of two cogs meant to turn in unison to power something larger. These two pieces are thousands of miles apart and have never spun. Jeff Saturday is trying to fix the problem through grunts and blank stares.
30
Chicago Bears
Last week’s rank: 30
Luke Getsy is getting creative with how he deploys Justin Fields in a Bears offense with few receiving threats. He had his quarterback line up as a tailback for multiple snaps Sunday, springing some successful plays in the process. But, uh, should the Bears really be subjecting Fields to more damage in a lost season where he’s already been sacked a league-high 55 times?
lol toss sweep *to* Justin Fields for 31 yards pic.twitter.com/HYbfjSfJaH
— Christian D'Andrea (@TrainIsland) January 1, 2023
29
Denver Broncos
Last week’s rank: 29
Freeing Russell Wilson from fired head coach Nathaniel Hackett’s influence showcased some immediate dividends. Sure, his passing game remained unfortunate (-6.4 EPA when he threw the ball) but his mobility made a cameo appearance against the Chiefs as he ran for 27 yards and two touchdowns. This in no way means he’s fixed — he threw a back-breaking fourth quarter interception to let Kansas City take the lead and had another one called back due to penalty — but at least it provides a few straws for Denver fans to grasp toward.
28
Arizona Cardinals
Last week’s rank: 27
Kliff Kingsbury is 6-15 as an NFL head coach in games played in December or later. But hey, at least he signed a contract extension last spring!
27
Los Angeles Rams
Last week’s rank: 26
Baker Mayfield is alternating bad games and good like he’s speedrunning through his NFL career so far. There aren’t many bright spots here, but holding onto Cam Akers (123 rushing yards vs. the Chargers) looks like one of them.
26
Atlanta Falcons
Last week’s rank: 28
The good news: Desmond Ridder completed 19 of 26 passes in his most efficient game as a pro to do. The bad news: only three of his completions traveled more than nine yards downfield and he threw for only 169 yards. Still, a win’s a win and any efficiency showcased with this Filene’s Basement group of non-Drake London receiving targets is a potential building block.
The Falcons have $70 million in estimated cap space for 2023. What they do will define whether or not Arthur Smith makes it to a fourth year as head coach in Atlanta.
25
Cleveland Browns
Last week’s rank: 22
Deshaun Watson finally looked like the player for whom the Browns traded three first round picks and gave a guaranteed $230 million despite more than 20 accusations of sexual misconduct and what the NFL described as “predatory behavior.” Sure, he only completed nine of 18 passes, but he also threw three touchdowns without an interception to soundly outplay a broken Carson Wentz and ruin the Commanders’ playoff hopes.
24
Carolina Panthers
Last week’s rank: 25
Carolina was 1-4 under Matt Rhule in 2022 and 5-6 with interim head coach Steve Wilks at the helm. Wilks unlocked this team’s potential by following the Brian Daboll example — using a ground-based offense to grind down defenses (and, ideally, the clock) and rehabilitated a shaky quarterback with short, high-percentage throws.
Will he get a chance to take over the team’s head coach role? Will he get a shot somewhere else? Wilks was shown the door after one (admittedly very bad, but his QB was Josh Rosen) season in Arizona so the Cardinals could replace him with Kliff Kingsbury. He should get his share of interviews this winter based on the turnaround potential he’s shown in Charlotte.
23
New Orleans Saints
Last week’s rank: 23
Not good enough to compete. Not bad enough to rise to a top five draft pick (which, in fairness, would just go to the Eagles anyway in 2023). This is the limbo in which the Saints exist and will continue to exist as they untangle years of salary cap shenanigans that kept the Drew Brees era running thanks to a credit card bill that’s finally come due.
Dennis Allen will likely stick around as head coach because, well, 2023 is likely going to be more of the same anyway. Might as well give him another shot and see if he can prove he’s learned something.
22
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Last week’s rank: 24
Tampa Bay has Tom Brady, which means they’re perpetually a live dog. But at the same time, this team is not good. The defense is heavily dependent on turnover luck and the offense can’t run the ball or keep Brady protected long enough to develop a consistent downfield threat. The Buccaneers are headed to the playoffs and will host a Wild Card game. It could be the backdrop for more Brady magic. Or it could be a four-touchdown beatdown, like the team’s Week 14 loss to the San Francisco 49ers.
21
Las Vegas Raiders
Last week’s rank: 17
Jarrett Stidham put together a Matt Flynn-esque performance, and while his overtime interception cost the Raiders a win it also improved their draft stock so there’s no reason to be too sad about it. That won’t be enough to convince teams he’s a viable starter — not even an encore in Week 18 would get him there — but it may have made him some extra cash in free agency this spring as teams jockey for reliable backup passers for the upcoming season.
20
New York Jets
Last week’s rank: 16
The headstone on the 2022 Jets grave will read “a competent QB away from contention.” Mike White’s return wasn’t enough to spark a necessary win in Seattle and Sam Darnold’s completely unexpected resurgence in Carolina only managed to salt the fields of a village Zach Wilson has spent the last two years burning to the ground.
Veteran options will be available next spring. Will head coach Robert Saleh be reunited with Jimmy Garoppolo? Ship a couple picks West for Derek Carr? BRING BACK DARNOLD? Well, probably not that last one, but something’s gotta happen.
19
Tennessee Titans
Last week’s rank: 15
Starting Josh Dobbs over Malik Willis absolutely sent a message about the latter’s NFL readiness and *probably* sent one about how the Titans view his future. Tennessee is on the brink of going from a 97 percent playoff probability to an early vacation and the first losing season of Mike Vrabel’s tenure is already locked in. The team can extricate itself from Ryan Tannehill’s contract this offseason, leading to a viable question: are the Titans about to hop on the quarterback carousel?
18
Washington Commanders
Last week’s rank: 13
Ron Rivera made a calculated decision to swtich from Taylor Heinicke to Carson Wentz at quarterback. Then Wentz played football like a malfunctioning robot and the Commanders wound up eliminated from the playoff hunt — apparently to Rivera’s surprise. This was a tremendous self inflicted wound from a franchise known for them.
Priority No. 1 this offseason is … well, it’s always gonna be getting Dan Snyder away from the team. No. 2? Finding a quarterback who can climb to the mighty heights of mediocrity and provide a massive upgrade in Washington.
17
Pittsburgh Steelers
Last week’s rank: 21
Mike Tomlin isn’t getting much Coach of the Year recognition — he wasn’t even on the board coming into Week 17. Let’s not act like he isn’t deserving, however. Tomlin was served up a mishmash of strange pieces and managed to fit them together and ensure his 16th straight season with at least eight wins. The Steelers have gone from 2-8 to a very real, if unlikely, spot in the playoff race. The opportunity to keep Tomlin’s streak of non-losing seasons comes in Sunday’s finale against the hated Browns at home.
16
New England Patriots
Last week’s rank: 18
Mac Jones had one of his better games of 2022, quelling calls for Bailey Zappe to re-enter the starting lineup. He still kinda stunk, however — a bad third down sack in the first half cost the Patriots a chance at a field goal and felt entirely too familiar to New England fans, for example — and now has to face the Bills in Week 18 with a playoff spot on the line.
Of course, there’s also a very real possibility that Jones beats Buffalo, then has to travel back to Orchard Park seven days later only to get frogstomped in a stunning tribute to last year’s postseason.
15
Seattle Seahawks
Last week’s rank: 19
This season was always going to be a house money year for the Seahawks — especially with the Broncos in line to deliver the third and 35th selections in next spring’s draft as part of the Russell Wilson trade. Beating the Jets in Week 17 was another leap forward in an unpredictable campaign that kept the team’s postseason hopes alive.
No matter what happens, Pete Carroll is going to have to make a decision about Geno Smith; the veteran hasn’t been as good late as he was in September and October, but he’s also proven he can be a viable starting quarterback in the NFL.
14
Miami Dolphins
Last week’s rank: 11
The Dolphins have lost five straight. While Tua Tagovailoa’s absence in New England played an undeniable role in Week 17, his offense was fading well before he landed back in the crosshairs of the league’s deficient concussion protocol. Miami’s explosive passing offense hasn’t had more than 300 yards through the air since its Week 11 bye after hitting that number four times to start the year — games in which the Dolphins went 3-1.
13
Green Bay Packers
Last week’s rank: 20
Aaron Rodgers is still able to uncork alien life form throws downfield and escape pressure, but the driving force behind the Packers’ unexpected run back into the playoff race has been a defense that’s finally realized its potential. Even without Rashan Gary to bring pressure Green Bay has fielded a top-five unit since its bye, notably haranguing Kirk Cousins into four turnovers in a must-win Week 17 showdown at Lambeau Field.
12
Detroit Lions
Last week’s rank: 9
Detroit let Justin Fields show off early, then scored 34 unanswered points to keep its hot streak rolling. The Lions have one of the league’s most explosive offenses thanks to Jared Goff’s resurgence and the team’s ability to turn just about anyone into a touchdown threat. An undermanned defense, however, — it ranked 28th in overall DVOA before Week 17 — is a concern.
11
Baltimore Ravens
Last week’s rank: 7
Baltimore badly needs Lamar Jackson back and badly needs receivers to whom he can throw. The Ravens have 455 total passing yards in Tyler Huntley’s four games as starting quarterback. Tom Brady, comparitively, had 432 on his own in Week 17 against the Panthers. On Sunday, the team’s non-Mark Andrews targets combined for five catches and 30 yards.
10
Jacksonville Jaguars
Last week’s rank: 12
Jacksonville is flying, not through gimmickry but by trusting its young talent to make plays. Trevor Lawrence looks like a franchise quarterback. Travis Etienne is a 100-yard threat every Sunday and potentially the only good questionable decision to come out of the Urban Meyer era. And next year a receiving corps filled with very nice complementary players is in line to add Calvin Ridley once he’s reinstated to the NFL following a gambling suspension.
The Jaguars are approaching one of the most hopeful moments in franchise history; beating the Titans for the AFC South title would fuel that fire.
9
Minnesota Vikings
Last week’s rank: 8
There may not be a less convincing 12-win team in NFL history. In the past four weeks, Minnesota has suffered double-digit losses to two different surging division rivals, including Sunday’s 41-17 blowout in Green Bay. The Vikings somehow have a -19 point differential despite their gaudy record. The Raiders, for comparison, have a -5 differential and are 6-10.
8
New York Giants
Last week’s rank: 14
Daniel Jones earned New York’s admiration by running face first into danger at every opportunity and somehow making it work. Brian Daboll deserves the Coach of the Year votes he’s going to get, as his run-heavy, risk averse offense has flushed out Jones’ worst traits and currently has him leading the league in interception rate (1.1 percent) while nearly doubling his career highs for rushing stats (708 and seven touchdowns). The Giants have plenty to prove in the postseason, but 2022 has been an unqualified success.
7
Los Angeles Chargers
Last week’s rank: 10
Four straight wins have pushed the Chargers into the postseason. Now Brandon Staley and Justin Herbert have to team up and prove the playoff heartbreak that’s lingered throughout the franchise’s history can be sealed off like an unsuspecting party guest hoping to sample a fine cask of amontillado. That might be a tall task; Los Angeles is only 1-4 this season against teams currently in the postseason picture.
6
Dallas Cowboys
Last week’s rank: 6
The Cowboys have a shot to reel in the NFC East title and the conference’s top seed thanks to a 4-1 record over their last four games. The quarterbacks they’ve beaten in that run? Since-benched Matt Ryan, Houston’s Davis Mills-Jeff Driskel combination, Gardner Minshew and Joshua Dobbs.
Hey, wins are wins and it’s not like Dallas gets to control who’s playing against them — but still, there’s lingering reason to doubt this (and, honestly, any) Mike McCarthy-coached team.
5
San Francisco 49ers
Last week’s rank: 5
Brock Purdy is 5-0 as the 49ers’ primary quarterback and has a 10:3 touchdown-to-interception ratio in those games. His 101.6 passer rating in 2022 would rank seventh among qualified starters and his 0.215 expected points added per play ranks seventh among 40 QBs who’ve played at least 160 snaps. This is all a very small sample size, but this feels like a great opportunity to appreciate just how adaptable Kyle Shanahan has made his offense to underwhelming passers.
4
Philadelphia Eagles
Last week’s rank: 1
Gardner Minshew is making Jalen Hurts’ MVP case for him. The Eagles are 0-2 with their backup quarterback in the lineup and 11-1 when he’s healthy. Of course, the loss of offensive tackle Lane Johnson, who is battling an abdominal tear, is a mighty blow as well. Philadelphia remains a great team, but it needs to get healthy quick.
3
Kansas City Chiefs
Last week’s rank: 2
Kansas City keeps rolling to victory, but has a habit of playing with its food. The Chiefs have won three of their last four by six points or fewer — and those three games came against the bottom-five Texans and Broncos. Giveaways could be a fatal problem in the 2023 Playoffs; Andy Reid’s team has turned the ball over multiple times in half its games this season. While that hasn’t stifled his record, it’ll be a different story against the AFC’s best teams in January.
2
Cincinnati Bengals
Last week’s rank: 4
See below.
1
Buffalo Bills
Last week’s rank: 3
Originally the winner of Monday night’s game was going to take over the top spot. Then Damar Hamlin left the field in an ambulance and this all felt very insignificant. The Bengals and Bills are both very good. Get well soon, Damar.
