The Miami Dolphins are 7-3. They have a 90 percent chance, per the New York Times, of winning the AFC East for the first time in 15 years. They have a quarterback who ranks among the top three in touchdown passes, passing yards and passer rating. They have the league’s most unstoppable wide receiver.
And they are thoroughly untrustable.
The Mike McDaniel era in south Florida has been defined by flashy, explosive performances, some bad injury luck and a lack of quality wins. The Dolphins have seven victories this season; only one came against a team that’s .500 or better. That’s the 5-5 Denver Broncos, who were in the midst of a 1-5 start when Miami stomped a mudhole in them and walked themselves dry for a 70-20 Week 3 win.
That’s the issue with this year’s NFL. A league that prides itself on parity has built a handful of sure-fire playoff teams but few no-doubt Super Bowl contenders. The Dolphins haven’t beaten anybody. The Kansas City Chiefs’ lack of receiving depth has made them vulnerable. The Philadelphia Eagles’ secondary concerns and inability to put opponents away could bite them come playoff time. The Baltimore Ravens remain forever trapped between “good” and “great.”
There’s a lot more to worry about than have confidence as the calendar flips over to winter. But as the two-thirds mark of the 2023 NFL regular season looms, here’s how we see all 32 teams shaking out.
32
Carolina Panthers
Last week: 31
Hey, look at that! The Panthers converted three fourth downs for a 100 percent conversion rate against a top-tier Dallas defense. That’s something, right? Here’s a gold star, Bryce Young. I’m sure it makes up for (gestures broadly) everything else. — Robert Zeglinski
31
New England Patriots
Last week: 29
The Patriots won their bye week when the New York Giants beat the Washington Commanders. That leaves Bill Belichick staring down a top three pick, which would be worth, like six second round picks if he plays his cards right. – Christian D’Andrea
30
Chicago Bears
Last week: 30
Matt Eberflus’ Bears had their first NFC North win in hand. A sound defensive effort flummoxed an inept Jared Goff all afternoon. And in his first game after a thumb injury, Justin Fields played like a hero. He even uncharacteristicaly manipulated the Chicago pocket for a few chunk plays, especially to D.J. Moore.
But despite kicking the Lions’ [expletive] for 57 minutes, the Bears couldn’t hold their water. Because that’s the Eberflus brand — play hard, turtle at the worst possible time, and set a new standard for shame. Eberflus has the worst winning percentage for a coach in almost 103 years of Bears football. By the time the Bears axe him this January, he will officially finish as the worst coach in the history of the NFL’s charter franchise. That is a black mark he deserves and then some. — RZ
29
Arizona Cardinals
Last week: 24
Even in a game where C.J. Stroud threw three brutal interceptions, the Cardinals lost. The easy target will be to blame a rusty Kyler Murray, who was starting just his second professional football game in less than a calendar year after an ACL tear. The correct culprit is a talent-deprived roster that would sooner belong in major Division I football rather than in the NFL. — RZ
28
New York Giants
Tommy DeVito has a win as a starting quarterback in the NFL. Sure, it came at the expense of draft position, but it will almost certainly ensure the 2023 New York Giants are *not* the least competitive team in NFL history. Hooray? – CD
27
Washington Commanders
Last week: 21
It is so Commanders to finally find a potential franchise quarterback in Sam Howell, but one other aspect of the team is wholeheartedly broken. In this case, I’m talking about an awful secondary that allowed Tommy “Peter Pan” DeVito to throw for 264 yards and three touchdowns with minimal resistance.
This is an easier fix for one offseason than, say, finding a quarterback, but that task grows more challenging if 2023 first-round pick Emmanuel Forbes doesn’t blossom. The more things change in D.C., the more they stay the same. — RZ
26
Los Angeles Rams
Last week: 28
Sunday gave us the gift of Vintage Matthew Stafford. In a game where the Seahawks were content to play with their food, this wily vet gutted out a tough win while throwing a few dimes to Puka Nacua. Do NOT ask about anything else. The Rams are rebuilding and they don’t even seem to know it. Let them figure that out on their own. It’s better this way. — RZ
25
Tennessee Titans
Last week: 23
Where were you for Will Levis Mania 2023? I was writing about football on a website, telling people how impressed I was with his early start. Go figure.
Levis’ fall from grace lately hasn’t been all his fault — the Titans are atrocious and still need a full-scale rebuild — but the bloom is definitively off the rose. Jay Cutler in an elaborate body suit can’t do it all by himself. — RZ
24
Green Bay Packers
Last week: 27
Green Bay isn’t hopeless. In fact, its young skill players provided a key proof of concept for the future, as Dontayvion Wicks, Jayden Reed, Christian Watson, Luke Musgrave and even Tucker Kraft all played important roles in their Week 11 win over the Los Angeles Chargers.That group buoyed Jordan Love to a huge day — especially when Love’s tailbacks provided next to no value on the ground. – CD
23
Atlanta Falcons
Last week: 22
The Falcons will leave the bye week with a date against the hated New Orleans Saints at home. At this time, it looks like it will be a “battle” for the NFC South lead. If Arthur Smith can’t scheme up an offense that has all his best players touching the ball (a lot) against a middling rival, then it’s time to ensure his key fob no longer works at the team facility. — RZ
22
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Last week: 19
Tampa Bay is not a good team, but has been frisky enough to remain in the periphery of a gross NFC South race thanks to an opportunistic defense and better than expected play from Baker Mayfield. Neither of those things happened against the San Francisco 49ers in Week 11, however, which explains the 27-13 loss. – CD
21
New York Jets
Last week: 17
My goodness does Zach Wilson know how to commit to a bit. Imagine your team’s season is rapidly spinning down the drain. Then imagine literally falling over as you take the field before a 81-yard performance where you complete seven whole passes. That is the Zach Wilson experience, ladies and gentlemen. Like Bambi trying to walk, but without the happy ending. — RZ
20
Las Vegas Raiders
Last week: 25
The magic with Antonio Pierce and Aidan O’Connell couldn’t last, but this team still gave the Miami Dolphins a proper scare on the road despite being led by a rookie fourth round pick and an interim head coach. Just imagine what could have been if this franchise hadn’t been forced to relive the late-00s Denver Broncos mistakes by hiring Josh McDaniels and watching him screw everything up beyond all hope? – CD
19
Indianapolis Colts
Last week: 26
I think the lesson here is we have no idea where to place the Colts. A soft finish to 2023 — including a game against the Joe Burrow-less Bengals at just the right time — paves the way for a 10-win season and perhaps even an AFC South title. Or they could slump to below .500 like you’d expect from the league’s 26th-best scoring defense. Both options make sense! – CD
18
Cincinnati Bengals
Last week: 8
Cincinnati plummets down our rankings because, well, it doesn’t have Joe Burrow anymore! A top-five quarterback! A guy who makes the Bengals offense sing beautiful melodies when he’s healthy!
With no due respect to Jake Browning (I mean, c’mon, it’s not like he’s done anything in the NFL to earn respect), the Bengals are done. The 2023 season will go down as a lost one smack dab in the middle of Burrow’s prime. Brutal for all sides on the Ohio River. — RZ
17
Los Angeles Chargers
Last week: 12
How are the Chargers a real team? Save for one fluky effort against the miserable Bears, Jordan Love has looked like an overwhelmed pumpkin all season for the Packers. Yet, there Love was, slinging the rock around, outdueling Justin Herbert en route to the first 300-yard passing effort of his career. I am a professional writer yet I am running out of unique ways to say this Los Angeles franchise should probably be relegated before it embarrasses itself even further. — RZ
16
Pittsburgh Steelers
Last week: 14
At what point do the Steelers pull the plug on Kenny Pickett? Or Matt Canada? Will anyone on this Pittsburgh offense face accountability for an attack that makes any rational football lover want to scratch their eyes out?
I’m starting to warm to the idea that Mike Tomlin holds them in place purely because he loves adding an extra degree of difficulty to another great coaching job. They make him look better by default. There’s no other logical explanation at this point. — RZ
15
New Orleans Saints
Last week: 18
If you replaced this team with a coin flip each week, would anyone notice? – CD
14
Minnesota Vikings
Last week: 13
Josh Dobbs played fine on Sunday night, providing average quarterbacking against a defense that consistently brought pressure. That wasn’t enough to beat the Broncos on the road, but if that’s his floor as a Viking it’s great news for this team’s playoff hopes.
The bad news? We’ve got years of data suggesting his floor is somewhere lower — and Minnesota is going to need Justin Jefferson at full force to keep him floating above his journeyman past. – CD
13
Cleveland Browns
Last week: 15
No Deshaun Watson, once levied with more than 20 allegations of sexual misconduct and what the league later described as “predatory behavior,” no problem. Well, sort of. The Browns’ pop-gun offense with quarterback fill-in Dorian Thompson-Robinson managed just 259 total yards of offense and a 23 percent third-down conversion rate on Sunday.
Fortunately for Cleveland, it was playing against the one NFL offense who will always manage to disappoint relative to expectations. Unfortunately for Cleveland, it can’t play against certified bust Kenny Pickett and an overmatched Matt Canada every week. The Browns resemble a playoff team in this uninspiring state — albeit one with a short shelf life. — RZ
12
Buffalo Bills
Last week: 16
Perpetually winning the field position battle helped, but the Bills repeatedly cracked and eventually exploded a very good Jets defense en route to a revenge win over Zach Wilson in Week 11. It was a solid debut for new offensive coordinator Joe Brady, but it’s merely a warmup for a gauntlet to come. Over the next four weeks, Buffalo has games against the Philadelphia Eagles, Kansas City Chiefs and Dallas Cowboys sandwiched around its bye. Win two of those and then we can talk playoffs. – CD
11
Denver Broncos
Last week: 20
Are the Broncos good? Kind of? There were some very real red zone concerns and this team’s ability to straight-up lose guys in zone coverage is a real problem — put Justin Jefferson in Sunday night’s game and Minnesota likely scores 30-plus.
But Russell Wilson rose to the occasion, Courtland Sutton finally looks like the guy with an All-Pro trajectory early in his career and this flawed defense came together when it mattered. I still don’t trust Denver, but amidst a flawed second tier this team can devastate some more playoff hopefuls. – CD
10
Seattle Seahawks
Last week: 9
The Seahawks remain untrustworthy; a collection of fancy gears that don’t quite all turn in harmony. I won’t put too much stock in a loss to the Rams — that’s sort of Pete Carroll’s thing (6-13 against them since 2014) — but losing Geno Smith for an extended period would be anathema to their NFC West title hopes. Fortunately, there’s room to survive for a couple weeks of Drew Lock’s purgatory play and still earn a Wild Card bid in the uneven NFC. – CD
9
Houston Texans
It feels like there’s a clear top six in the NFL this season — and even that’s nebulous when one of those teams is coached by Mike McCarthy. Then comes a vast middle plain of teams capable of getting hot at the right time and sneaking into a conference title game.
The fact this applies to the Texans, led by a rookie quarterback with a roster that had won 11 games the previous three seasons, is stunning. DeMeco Ryans will earn some coach of the year votes as Houston shows us what it’s capable of after declaring its arduous rebuild over. – CD
8
Jacksonville Jaguars
Last week: 11
A week after someone admitted they didn’t know what they were doing against the 49ers, the Jaguars took the Titans behind the woodshed. Trevor Lawrence was still kind of just OK, though, and they won’t get to play a rookie quarterback (the non-C.J. Stroud division) every week. Jacksonville is obviously talented, but they reek “paper tiger” just like tilapia cooked in an office microwave. — RZ
7
Miami Dolphins
Last week: 7
Miami’s best win on paper, all year, is either versus an early, untested and awful version of the Sean Payton Broncos (now 5-5) or over the Raiders — who are straddling .500 with an interim coach filling in for a professional doofus. I am not remotely exaggerrating, by the way.
Las Vegas equals the most victories of any team the frontrunning Dolphins have beaten over the course of the entire season. (And they barely won, too!) Ah, well, I’m sure the current AFC East leader won’t have to play someone better come January. This isn’t a problem. — RZ
6
Dallas Cowboys
Last week: 6
Dallas has only played two teams this season that have records better than 4-6 through Week 11. The Cowboys are 0-2 against them. That said, beating the brakes off bad opponents is exactly what a good team is supposed to do and exactly what they’ve done. It’s just hard to get too excited about wins over the Panthers and Patriots, you know? – CD
5
Detroit Lions
Last week: 3
The Lions played footsie with the woeful Bears and on a different Sunday, would’ve probably fallen short. But Dan Campbell’s bunch is too well-coached for that. In front of a raucous Detroit crowd, the Lions erased a 12-point deficit in just about three minutes for an unthinkable win. Concerns will predictably spark about Jared Goff’s viability for a contender, but that’s a conversation for another day. These Lions clearly have a never-say-die championship mettle. — RZ
4
Kansas City Chiefs
Last week: 2
The Chiefs’ lack of wideout depth once again reared its ugly head; this time in the form of a dropped deep ball to Marquez Valdes-Scantling that would have given Kansas City the lead with under two minutes to play against the Eagles. Instead, the ball caromed to the turf and Patrick Mahomes’ top two non-Travis Kelce targets were Justin Watson and Rashee Rice. Those are nice complements, but man oh man this team really could’ve used a new set of hands at the trade deadline.
3
San Francisco 49ers
Last week: 5
What three-game losing streak? After a midseason crisis, San Francisco hit the pavement sprinting. They’ve outscored (and humbled) pretenders 61-17 over the last two weeks. Whatever concerns we had about an imminent demise of Kyle Shanahan’s team were clearly exagerrated. Part of that has been the steady hand of Brock Purdy, who’s thrown for over 600 yards and six touchdowns since the bye. If San Fran can get this version of Purdy consistently, it’ll be hard to see anyone toppling the 49ers in their mission for Super Bowl 58. — RZ
2
Baltimore Ravens
Last week: 4
Rolling up 400-plus yards of offense against Lou Anarumo’s Bengal defense is a feat, even if it came at the cost of Mark Andrews, who leads the team in per-game receiving yards. Zay Flowers has proven to be capable of filling the void Hollywood Brown left behind, but this team’s passing game may hinge on whether Odell Beckham Jr. (10 catches, 212 yards, two touchdowns his last three games) can provide consistent production as the team’s second option downfield. – CD
1
Philadelphia Eagles
Last week: 1
The Eagles do nothing simple, but you can’t argue with the results (unless we’re talking about the Jets game). Philadelphia trailed by 10 at halftime, then got opportunistic forcing turnovers and pressuring Patrick Mahomes to hold the Chiefs scoreless at home in the third and fourth quarters. This team did most of its dirty work on the ground, getting Jalen Hurts into the end zone on both a QB draw AND a tush push and proving this team would have been a pack of terminators back in 1948.
