Super Wild Card Weekend ™ is over. It ended not with a bang, but with a whimper.
Comparatively.
The Dallas Cowboys’ rout of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers was notable for Dak Prescott’s heroics and what may have been Tom Brady’s final game in Tampa, but was mostly a snoozer. This paled next to the action of the Jacksonville Jaguars’ rally back from a 27-0 deficit to further the Los Angeles Chargers’ existence of misery, the Cincinnati Bengals and Buffalo Bills’ battles against division foes with feisty backup quarterbacks and, uh, Kirk Cousins staring down fourth-and-eight with his season on the line and throwing a three-yard pass.
KIRK COUSINS WHAT THE HELL MAN pic.twitter.com/VNmoFZVnxP
— Christian D'Andrea (@TrainIsland) January 16, 2023
That leaves eight teams still grinding their way toward Super Bowl 57. The Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles jump into the mix for the Divisional Round after winning their respective conferences’ top seeds and the Wild Card bye that comes with it. But neither is the top ranked team in this week’s power rankings, which not only considers how each team has played in 2022 but how the rest of their postseason path might unfold.
Here’s how the NFL’s elite eight sort out before four more are sent home to clean out their lockers.
8
New York Giants
The Giants are a wonderful underdog story that went 2-5-1 over the final eight games of the regular season and made it to the Divisional Round by virtue of beating Kirk Cousins. Brian Daboll is my Coach of the Year vote (that’s right, I get one) for turning Daniel Jones into a viable playoff quarterback, especially given the receiving corps around him, but New York is punching way above its weight class. Even so, that can result in knockouts — the Eagles, 2-0 against the Giants this year, can’t afford to overlook their division rival.
7
Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville is capable of overcoming a 27-0 first half deficit. This means it’s also capable of giving up 27 straight points, even against a depleted Chargers offense. Trevor Lawrence’s short memory is an asset, but the fact remains he’ll have to continue carrying this offense in order to counteract a young defense that ranked 26th in overall DVOA this season.
On the other hand, this team has effectively been playing for its playoff life since the start of December and keeps winning. You can’t count the Jags out.
6
Dallas Cowboys
Dak Prescott knew his reputation was under attack after spending 2022 as Schrodinger’s Quarterback. He responded to the criticism with one of the finest playoff performances of the millennium; five total touchdowns to thoroughly carve up the Buccaneers. The Dallas defense answered the bell as well, keeping Tom Brady out of the end zone until that game was well in hand.
Next up is the challenge of stopping Brock Purdy (reasonable!), his cast of game-breaking skill players (much more difficult) and the league’s top-ranked defense and presumptive defensive player of the year, Nick Bosa. This is how a team that glided through the Wild Card round gets stuck at No. 6.
5
Cincinnati Bengals
Was it the familiarity of a third game against the Ravens that kept Cincy’s Wild Card game locked in struggle? Or was it a design flaw that threatens to derail the Bengals’ AFC title defense? Either way, this team was potentially one boneheaded goal-line reach away from getting beaten by Tyler Huntley at home.
Next comes a swarming Bills defense and Josh Allen in Buffalo. Cincinnati will need more than the 234 total yards it managed against Baltimore to survive its trip to western New York.
4
Buffalo Bills
The Bills have the regular season edge over the Chiefs, having beaten them on the road in consecutive years. They’re also 0-2 against them in the postseason since 2021 and have the tougher Divisional Round opponent, sliding them into fourth place. Josh Allen is a forlorn transformer who spends most of his time on the field resisting the urge to shift back into the 18-wheeler he lives as throughout the season. Sometimes these concerns overtake him and he makes weird throws.
That’s the best way I can explain his occasionally jarring decision-making against the backdrop of otherwise sterling football. Anyway, the Buffalo secondary is getting big returns from its cornerbacks recently. They’ve got the chops to absolutely ruin Joe Burrow, then Patrick Mahomes or Trevor Lawrence’s, day.
3
Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City has thrived without Tyreek Hill because Patrick Mahomes doesn’t need superstars (or more than one superstar. Travis Kelce remains incredible at football). Eleven different Chiefs caught touchdowns this season from the MVP frontrunner as he finished 2022 head and shoulders above the rest of his class when it came to overall efficiency. This is great, because the defense behind him is middling.
Kansas City ranked 17th in overall DVOA, 16th in points allowed and a troubling 31st in red zone touchdown percentage allowed (67.3). This suggests more shootouts en route to a Super Bowl appearance (should it happen), starting with the Jaguars and their even-more-troubling D.
2
Philadelphia Eagles
Jalen Hurts’ sore shoulder is the reason the Eagles aren’t in first place. All we’ve seen from the NFC’s top quarterback in 2022 has been success — but his lone game since Week 15 was an outing against the Giants’ backups, and he finished that game with a 65.1 passer rating (and a win). He and All-Pro right tackle Lane Johnson (torn ab muscle) will both grit it out this postseason, but may not play to the peak of their abilities.
That said, Philly can win a world title even with an average performance from Hurts thanks to the stars in his orbit and the league’s top-ranked passing defense. The Eagles are a nightmare for opposing offenses, generating 15 more sacks than anyone in the league despite a league-average blitz rate. That’s a lot of static for Daniel Jones, Brock Purdy or Dak Prescott to have to throw through.
1
San Francisco 49ers
Brock Purdy keeps rolling; from Week 13 on he’s the league’s second-most efficient quarterback, just ahead of Patrick Mahomes (but behind Jared Goff. Who knew?).
He’s got a much tougher test ahead of him than the Seahawks’ 21st-ranked defense when he has to stare down Micah Parsons, Dorance Armstrong and the Cowboys third-ranked pass rush (in terms of pressure rate), but forcing him into short throws isn’t a bug in his game; it’s a feature. The Kyle Shanahan way is to plaster over his QB’s defects with guys who can run after the catch, including Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle and Christian McCaffrey.
How are defenses supposed to account for all those guys? What if Purdy comes out throwing deep again and forcing opponents to reconsider high safety help? And how have we not even gotten into the league’s top-ranked defense and its cache of stars at every level??? Hoooo buddy, the 49ers are good — like, take Mr. Irrelevant to the Super Bowl in his first season good.
