The 2023 NFL Draft is about six months away.
But now that we’re halfway through the college season and roughly a third of the way into the pro campaign, it’s as good a time as any to start looking ahead and making bold predictions.
Next spring’s draft should be a return to normalcy after 2022 saw only one quarterback selected in the first 73 picks — and none inside the top 19. Next spring’s crop of passers is loaded with viable starters, including two top-tier prospects in Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud and Alabama’s Bryce Young. That pair might not meet in the College Football Playoff this winter, but they’ll certainly see enough of each other as teams put them through the pre-draft motions to figure out which one will be 2023’s top overall pick.
It’s still too early to decide which one will win out, if either. Should a team with a young quarterback already in place slides to the top spot, Bama edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. could be the pick. Right now, all we’ve got is a vague idea of how this will all unfold, from which teams will be picking where and who their targets will be.
But that doesn’t mean it’s too early to throw some theories out there and begin to shape next year’s process into a basic form from which it will evolve. Here’s my first crack at a 31-team (because the Miami Dolphins forfeited their 2023 first-rounder) 2023 NFL mock draft.
1
Detroit Lions: QB Bryce Young, Alabama
Team needs: QB, CB, S, LB, DT
The Lions’ recent losing streak has a very Lions silver (and Honolulu Blue) lining. It’s pushed them to the top of the early 2023 Draft order. That leaves Detroit in perfect position to draft its next franchise quarterback.
Will it be Young or Ohio State star CJ Stroud? That’s the tough question whomever lands the top pick will have to figure out. Stroud has lifted a litany of blue chip wideouts to stardom. Young is a Heisman Trophy winner who may be the best quarterback in Alabama program history. Young’s abilities as a playmaker give him the edge for now, but it’s nearly a coin flip between these two future stars.
2
Houston Texans: QB CJ Stroud, Ohio State
Team needs: QB, WR, EDGE, LB, OL
Drafting Stroud means Davis Mills can transition to the high-value backup he was always meant to be. He’d take an immediate backseat to a player capable of erasing the memory of Deshaun Watson, accused of sexual misconduct by more than 20 women and the perpetrator of what the NFL itself described as “predatory behavior,” from the brains of Texans fans.
Stroud has been an absolute monster at Ohio State, throwing for nearly 6,500 yards in 19 games (!) and tossing 72 touchdown passes against only 10 interceptions. He’s the latest model of prolific gunslinger to come off the Buckeyes’ revamped assembly line and likely the most advanced. While he doesn’t offer much as a dual-threat quarterback he’s an athletic scrambler who can avoid contact in the pocket and throw darts downfield under pressure. That’s a perpetual plus in Houston.
3
Carolina Panthers: QB Hendon Hooker, Tennessee
Team needs: QB, RB, WR, OL, EDGE, LB
Yeah, let’s get wild with the third overall pick. The Panthers badly need a quarterback, but the two sure-thing prospects will be gone by No. 3 if this is how the draft order shakes out. That leaves general manager Scott Fitterer with a tough choice to make.
Will Levis is currently the consensus third-best quarterback … but Hendon is rising quickly and, more importantly, has the tools GMs have coveted in recent drafts. His deep ball is glorious, a barrage of cannon shots placed accurately downfield. He’s going to absolutely crush his pro day workout and, combined with his game tape against Alabama (385 yards, five touchdowns) rise up draft boards through the spring.
Team owner David Tepper made his name as a hedge fund manager for his boldness. Drafting Hooker third overall? That’s a bold move.
4
Philadelphia Eagles (via New Orleans Saints): EDGE Will Anderson Jr., Alabama
Team needs: EDGE, LB, RB
The Eagles get richer as the best defensive prospect in the draft slides to them at No. 4. A front seven that got support from one SEC athletic marvel last year when Jordan Davis languished to the 13th pick now gets to add 2023’s most explosive and terrifying pass rusher.
Few players in college football can match Anderson’s burst and acceleration in tight quarters. No one is doing it weighing more than 240 pounds. The Crimson Tide stalwart can baffle opposing tackles with a glorious spin move, plant his foot and disrupt passing plays in the blink of an eye. He has 23.5 sacks and 43 tackles for loss in his last 23 games and would make an instant impact for an already potent Philly defense.
5
Houston Texans (via Cleveland Browns): EDGE Myles Murphy, Clemson
Team needs: QB, WR, EDGE, LB, OL
Taking Stroud at No. 2 means missing out on Anderson. Murphy is a strong consolation prize. The Clemson edge rusher has 4.5-second 40 speed at 275 pounds and looks every bit a Sunday afternoon nightmare for opposing tackles.
He’s more potential than production as part of a Tiger roster loaded with talent. Murphy is a ridiculous athlete who can win with speed or power and, importantly, is a potent defender against the run. Houston’s sack leader through seven games is 34-year-old Jerry Hughes. Adding Murphy is a necessity.
6
Seattle Seahawks (via Denver Broncos): CB Kelee Ringo, Georgia
Team needs: EDGE, S, LB, IOL, DT, CB
Pete Carroll will strongly consider other defensive positions inside the top 10, but with the top two edge rushers off the board Ringo could be the best fit for the Seahawks. The Georgia lockdown corner is a big, fast werewolf in coverage who can hang with tight ends and speedster deep threats alike.
Ringo would pair with Tariq Woolen and Coby Bryant to give Carroll a rising young crop of cornerbacks capable of shutting down the NFC’s top QBs. Seattle has plenty of defensive needs and can afford to take the best defender available with the selection gleaned from the Broncos in the Russell Wilson trade. In this case, it’s the Georgia star around whom opposing quarterbacks try their best to gameplan.
7
Pittsburgh Steelers: OT Peter Skoronski, Northwestern
Team needs: OL, CB, DT, LB
Second-year left tackle Dan Moore currently has a 55.4 PFF grade. Pittsburgh needs an upgrade to protect and grow alongside Kenny Pickett.
Skoronski and Ohio State tackle Paris Johnson Jr. would be the best fits. Johnson is a 6-foot-6 behemoth who gets out in space and ruins linebackers days on running plays, but he also spent his first two seasons in Columbus playing on the interior. Skoronski is slightly smaller and less athletic in space but the better pocket protector at the edge. He also has three years of OT reps against Big Ten defenses. Neither is a dead-set can’t-miss prospect, but either would make a ton of sense for Pittsburgh.
8
Jacksonville Jaguars: DL Bryan Bresee, Clemson
Team needs: DL, CB, S, OG
Bresee is big (6-foot-5, 300 pounds) and agile enough to fill multiple roles in the front line of Jacksonville’s 3-4 defense. He’s an active defender who commands multiple blockers and seems to find himself in the middle of chaos on a regular basis. His presence up front would be a boon for 2022 picks Travon Walker and Devin Lloyd, each of whom could thrive in the gaps he creates.
Drafting defense here wouldn’t be as sexy as opting for USC wideout Jordan Addition or Ohio State’s Jaxon Smith-Njigba, but it’s a practical move for a team that’s embracing that sort of thing after the disastrous Urban Meyer era. Bresee makes a decent defense better and insulates the Jaguars against the run-heavy offenses of the AFC South.
9
Las Vegas Raiders: DT Jalen Carter, Georgia
Team needs: OL, DB, LB, DT
Derek Carr’s right tackle at the moment is journeyman Jermaine Eleumenor, which could convince the Raiders to draft Paris Johnson to bookend with Kolton Miller along the offensive line. Instead, Carter can fix things on the other side of the trenches. where current tackles Andrew Billings and Bilal Nichols are each upgradable.
Carter is a straight-up gap shooter who wrenches linemen out of his way and clogs running lanes in a hurry. He’s also capable of breaking into the pocket and forcing quarterbacks to move laterally — right where Maxx Crosby can clean them up. He’s not a player who’ll have traditionally great counting stats, but he’s capable of making the rest of the Las Vegas defense better every play.
10
Atlanta Falcons: QB Will Levis, Kentucky
Team needs: QB, OT, RB, EDGE, LB, DB
Having Marcus Mariota and Desmond Ridder on the roster won’t keep the Falcons from looking at a quarterback in the 2023 NFL Draft. If Levis falls this far — and it’s unlikely, since there are some needy teams who’d happily trade up to grab him — he’d be an easy choice for Atlanta to make.
The 2022 Falcons are 3-4 behind a run-first offense that throws the ball less often than anyone but the Chicago Bears. This has served primarily to make them mediocre enough to avoid a top five draft pick and done the grand disservice of making a team with Kyle Pitts and Drake London on the roster boring. Levis can fix that, even if he isn’t on that Young-Stroud level.
11
Miami Dolphins (via San Francisco 49ers): RB Bijan Robinson, Texas
Team needs: EDGE, TE, RB, LB, S
The Dolphins rush offense has been a disaster in recent years. While it’s improved in 2022 — 17th in DVOA through seven games — its success relies heavily on 30-year-old Raheem Mostert, who is not a long-term solution.
Drafting a running back in the top 12 may not be great optics in a league that typically devalues its runners, but Robinson is a special case. The Texas back has averaged more than six yards per carry in his college career. In the passing game, he’s able to do stuff like this.
— pickett’s pool (@PickettsPool) October 15, 2022
12
Arizona Cardinals: WR Jordan Addison, USC
Team needs: EDGE, CB, DT, OL, WR
Does this pick happen if Kliff Kingsbury is fired in January? It seems unlikely! The Cardinals’ attempts to build receiving depth around DeAndre Hopkins have been uneven at best. If Addison slides out of the top 10, the USC stud could be too tempting for Arizona to pass up.
Joining a Hopkins-Hollywood Brown-Rondale Moore combination would give Kyler Murray an embarrassment of playmaking riches at wideout. There are smarter choices to make here. The Cardinals could opt for a disruptive defensive lineman like BJ Ojulari or blocking help up front or a shutdown cornerback. But expecting things to make sense in the Kingsbury era is a stupid bet to make. The Cardinals get another blue chip wideout and cross their fingers once more in hopes of a breakthrough.
13
New England Patriots: OT Paris Johnson Jr., Ohio State
Team needs: OT, LB, EDGE, CB, S
Bill Belichick may be tempted to draft a wideout like Jaxon Smith-Njigba or a lockdown corner like Joey Porter Jr. here. But Johnson addresses a more important need, especially with young quarterbacks on the roster who need time in the pocket to help realize their potential as NFL passers.
Isaiah Wynn has failed to pan out at either left or right tackle. Trent Brown has failed to reclaim the magic from his first run as a Patriot. Johnson has the most potential of any blocker still left on the board. However, given Belichick’s 2022 selection of Cole Strange, it’s possible this pick is actually someone most mocks expected to be drafted somewhere in the middle of Day 2.
14
Chicago Bears: WR Quentin Johnston, TCU
Team needs: OL, WR, EDGE, DT, LB
It would be tempting to grab Jaxon Smith-Njigba here — he’s been slowed by injury to start 2022 but is still a beast. Offensive tackle Broderick Jones from Georgia would be a smart pick as well.
But Johnston is the kind of security blanket big wideout who’d complement Darnell Mooney and give Justin Fields the chance to thrive as a passer. The 6-foot-4 Horned Frog has averaged more than 18 yards per catch in his college career and, more importantly, been instrumental in TCU’s recent comeback wins over Oklahoma State and Kansas State (12 catches, 254 yards two touchdowns).
15
Washington Commanders: CB Joey Porter Jr., Penn State
Team needs: QB, OL, CB, S, LB
Rather than reach for the fifth-best quarterback on the board, the Commanders instead bulk up their defense with a Day 1 pick for the sixth time in the last seven years. Porter Jr. — the son of former Steeler linebacker Joey Sr., because time comes for us all with no relent — has been a breakout star in the middle of an otherwise questionable Penn State defense.
Porter Jr. already has 11 passes defensed in seven games this fall. He’s not just a ballhawk, however. He’s tall and long (6-foot-2) and capable of standing up in zone or man press coverage. He’d give the Commanders their William Jackson III replacement and pair with Benjamin St. Juste to give the team a pair of cornerbacks around which they could build their secondary.
16
Green Bay Packers: WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Ohio State
Team needs: WR, OL, EDGE, S, TE
Smith-Njigba’s injury woes in 2022 allow him to slide to the Packers, who desperately need him. Will his arrival be too late to save a suddenly foundering franchise?
Smith-Njigba has taken a backseat to Ohio State’s other blue chip wideouts this fall due to a bum hamstring, recording just five catches in three games of limited duty. That’s not representative of his abilities as a game-breaking receiver, however.
Last year’s 95 catches and 1,606 yards in 13 games? Representative. 15 receptions for 347 yards and three touchdowns against Utah in the Rose Bowl? Hoooo buddy, that’s even better. Rodgers gets a reasonable Davante Adams replacement here (perhaps a year too late) and a Smith-Njigba/Romeo Doubs/Allen Lazard/Christian Watson WR corps doesn’t look too bad … right?
17
Indianapolis Colts: OT Broderick Jones, Georgia
Team needs: QB, CB, S, OL
The Colts need a quarterback, but this is no place to take one. They also need someone capable of keeping that quarterback upright, and that’s where Jones is a metaphorical viking. The former five-star recruit is a two-year starter for one of college football’s top programs and has done an admirable job keeping Stetson Bennett’s jersey clean.
Since-benched Matt Ryan has been sacked 24 times for a league-worst -184 yards. Some of that is on Ryan, but he’s faced pressure on more than a quarter of his dropbacks. Jones would jump ahead of 2022 draft pick Bernhard Raimann on the depth chart and give whomever is calling audibles for Indianapolis next season — Jimmy Garoppolo? — a little extra time in the pocket. Jones is strong, agile and, importantly for the Colts’ running game, capable of getting upfield in a hurry to clear space.
18
Cincinnati Bengals: CB Cam Smith, South Carolina
Team needs: OL, DB, DT, TE
The Bengals are still relying heavily on Eli Apple in their secondary, which is a temporary solution with an expiration date printed in ink. Smith is a divisive prospect whose ability to play press coverage could cause his draft stock to fall. Cincinnati, however, often opts for zone coverage — an area where his ball skills shine.
Smith broke up or intercepted 14 passes last season with the Gamecocks. While his numbers have dropped this fall, he’s still a high-upside prospect with fluid hips and the ability to explode toward the ball and erase separation downfield. He’d be an important piece of a rebuilding young secondary.
19
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: EDGE BJ Ojulari, LSU
Team needs: IOL, QB, CB, S, EDGE
Tom Brady could use help on the interior of his line, so it’s feasible this pick could be a guard or center like O’Cyrus Torrence or John Michael Schmitz. But the top 20 could be too early for what looks like an average class of linemen, so Ojulari gets his name called instead.
The Buccaneers have 22 sacks in seven games and a top 10 pressure rate, but William Gholston and Shaq Barrett are each on the wrong side of 30 and their production could decline. Ojulari could be a bargain pickup with the 19th overall pick, as he’s a fluid, explosive defender capable of winning inside or out and can slither into the pocket with quickness. This would mark the third straight year Tampa’s first draft selection was used on a pass-rusher (Joe Tryon-Shoyinka, Logan Hall), but it’s a value pick aimed at crushing NFC quarterbacks with pressure that doesn’t require extra blitzes.
20
Detroit Lions (via Los Angeles Rams): LB Trenton Simpson, Clemson
Team needs: QB, CB, S, LB, DT
Detroit’s current off-ball linebackers are Alex Anzalone and 2022 sixth-round pick Malcolm Rodriguez, both of whom are better off as depth options rather than starters. Simpson, a 6-foot-3, 240-pound dump truck in the middle of the field, has a little bit more size and speed than Alabama’s Henry To’oTo’o, which gives him the nod here for Dan Campbell’s defense — though either would be a proper addition.
Simpson hasn’t been a factor in the backfield like he was in 2021 (12.5 tackles for loss, 6.5 sacks) but he’s a tailback-mashing presence who can pump up the league’s 29th-ranked rushing defense in a division loaded with running threats. He’s also big and fast enough to run with tight ends, providing a stable presence in the center of the Lions’ D.
21
Los Angeles Chargers: OT Jaelyn Duncan, Maryland
Team needs: OL, CB, LB
Justin Herbert’s average pass distance has dropped from 7.6 yards downfield to 6.3 thanks in large part to an offensive line that can’t keep opposing pass rushers at bay. Rashawn Slater’s return from a season-ending injury will be a massive boost, but Los Angeles badly needs reinforcements.
Duncan can be a big part of that equation. The 6-foot-6 Terrapin allowed only six quarterback hurries in 13 games in 2021 and could slide to the right side of the line to give Herbert two beefy young edge protectors capable of giving him the time needed to rediscover his deep ball. No. 21 may be a reach for the fourth-best OT in a draft that isn’t loaded with offensive line talent, but it’s a reach the Chargers may have no choice but to take.
22
Baltimore Ravens: WR Kayshon Boutte, LSU
Team needs: WR, EDGE, DL, CB
Boutte is the latest star to come off an LSU wideout assembly line that’s featured Ja’Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson and DJ Chark in recent years (and also, uh, Terrace Marshall). He’s capable of stretching the field vertically or thriving near the line of scrimmage as more of a possession-type wideout, bringing versatility to a limited Baltimore receiving corps loaded with more questions than answers.
The rest of the 2022 season and pre-draft process will test how Boutte has recovered from a serious injury that cut his 2021 short following only six games (and nine — NINE — touchdowns). If he can reclaim the cornerback-exploding athleticism that made him such a dynamic threat he may not last until the 22nd pick.
23
Seattle Seahawks: DL Isaiah Foskey, Notre Dame
Team needs: EDGE, S, LB, IOL, DT, CB
The Seahawks’ defensive makeover continues with Foskey, a versatile edge rusher and lineman who can attack the pocket from multiple angles. The Notre Dame product has 16 sacks since 2021, providing a bright spot in what’s been a disappointing season for the Irish.
Here he gets to pair with Boye Mafe, Uchenna Nwosu and Darrell Taylor to give Pete Carroll an explosive pass rushing rotation capable of bringing consistent pressure. Foskey’s ability to generate leverage and identify the moment his blocker swings even slightly off balance makes him a chaos agent. His presence up front will have a ripple effect through a defense that’s quietly improved as the 2022 season wears on.
24
Tennessee Titans: TE Michael Mayer, Notre Dame
Team needs: EDGE, CB, LB, TE, WR
Mayer may not have the blocking chops Tennessee’s run-heavy offense would prefer, but he can be a difference maker in a passing game in dire need of stars. The junior tight end had 840 yards and seven touchdowns in 2021 and is on pace to eclipse those numbers in 2022 while staking his claim as next spring’s top prospect at the position.
The 6-foot-4, 265-pound Mayer is a moose of a man and difficult to bring down after the catch. He uses that frame effectively to shield the ball from defenders and rumble upfield. Pairing that with Treylon Burks would give Ryan Tannehill two wide-bodied targets capable of punishing defensive backs en route to big gains.
25
New York Jets: OT Matthew Bergeron, Syracuse
Team needs: OL, EDGE, S, LB
Bergeron was a reasonable prospect coming into 2022, but he’s taken huge strides his senior season and could be in play toward the back end of the first round. He’s been a monster for one of this fall’s biggest surprises, clearing space for Garrett Schrader — he’s allowed only two sacks since 2021 — and moving mountains in the running game. That earned him praise from ESPN draft guru Matt Miller — and could be the start of his climb up draft boards.
Bergeron would be a boost for a line that’s been beset by injuries and attrition. Mekhi Becton will return in 2023. Pairing him with a rising star like the big Canadian would help keep Zach Wilson upright — something New York desperately needs if Wilson is ever going to reach his potential.
Zach Wilson's pressure splits are freaking mind blowing this season.
PFF Grade when kept clean: 89.6
PFF Grade under pressure: 23.0YPA kept clean: 9.1
YPA under pressure: 1.7Comp % kept clean: 75.7%
Comp % under pressure: 16.1%aDot kept clean: 6.4
aDot pressure: 12.7— Sam Monson (@PFF_Sam) October 25, 2022
26
Dallas Cowboys: LB Noah Sewell, Oregon
Team needs: OL, LB, S, CB
The Cowboys could use fresh blood in their linebacker corps alongside Micah Parsons. Sewell fits that bill.
The Oregon standout is a wide-bodied wrecking ball capable of running with tight ends or crashing through the line of scrimmage as a blitzer (four sacks in 2021). He’s productive, aggressive, and impressively athletic — creating the kind of profile that should boost his stock in the pre-draft prospect and be an easy sell for Jerry Jones. The Dallas defense has been punishing against the pass this fall but lags vs. the run. Bringing in a thumper like Sewell would be a long term solution.
27
Minnesota Vikings: EDGE Andre Carter II, Army
Team needs: EDGE, CB, S, LB, TE
The 6-foot-7 Carter has a 6-foot-10 wingspan and and 4.6-second 40 speed. He’s quick, explosive, and capable of winning with speed around the edge or footwork and strength to cut inside.
Carter hasn’t quite followed up on his breakthrough 14.5 sack campaign for the Black Knights last season, but he remains an intriguing prospect who found a way to shine so brightly he could be the first service academy star drafted in the first round since the 1940s. His slow start to the season has dulled his draft prospects — teams aren’t going to be taken by surprised by Army’s monster edge rusher this year — but he has the size and athleticism to be the kind of pre-draft darling that works his way into the back end of Day 1.
28
Kansas City Chiefs: DL Tyree Wilson, Texas Tech
Team needs: OL, CB, DT, LB, S
The Chiefs beefed up their pass rush in last year’s draft with Purdue workhorse George Karlaftis. Now they get Wilson, a physical, powerful defensive end who can bring pressure from the outside and eventually handle the duties currently shared by Carlos Dunlap (a free agent in 2023) and Frank Clark (who turns 30 next June).
Wilson can split outside and rush from the edge or use his length and bulk to clog lanes against the run inside. He’s got 13.5 sacks and 23 tackles for loss in his last 20 games, with all but 0.5 of those sacks coming against Power 5 opponents. He’s versatile and, playing alongside Chris Jones, capable of racking up impressive numbers cleaning up messes.
29
New York Giants: EDGE Nolan Smith, Georgia
Team needs: WR, CB, LB, QB, S
Smith isn’t a necessity for Brian Daboll’s team, but imagine pairing the massively disruptive Kayvon Thibodeaux with 2022’s fastest pass rusher. The four-year Georgia contributor is hiccup-quick on the outside and able to dip his shoulders low to slice around blockers and create leverage. That gives him added utility when asked to contribute in coverage, as his elite speed makes him difficult to shake for long.
He’s a little small for the position and may not have an early every-down impact in the pass rush, but he can fill a handful of different roles up front. While he may start his career as a situational player he has the chops and athleticism to be a multi-tool in Daboll’s defense.
30
Buffalo Bills: OG O'Cyrus Torrence, Florida
Team needs: CB, IOL, S, LB
Torrence, at 347 pounds, is roughly the size of a Smart car but potentially quicker thanks to nimble feet that betray his considerable girth. He didn’t allow a single sack in any of his three seasons at Louisiana and has risen to the challenge of the SEC by being a standout along a line that’s allowed only five sacks in 2022.
He’s a mean run blocker who finishes his assignments and revels in flattening linebackers. While he’s a bit unpolished he’s a high-potential prospect a stacked team like the Bills can afford to take a risk on. He could be a perfect replacement for a 34-year-old Rodger Saffold or upgrade over Ryan Bates if his skills continue to scale at an impressive level.
31
Philadelphia Eagles: RB Jahmyr Gibbs, Alabama
Team needs: EDGE, LB, RB
This is a luxury pick for a team with few glaring needs. Miles Sanders and Boston Scott will both be free agents in 2023, creating a need for an explosive runner and receiver out of the the backfield. That’s precisely what Gibbs is.
Gibbs has averaged nearly seven yards per carry in his first season in Tuscaloosa, but his production through the air may be even more encouraging. He’s got 31 receptions in eight games, proving a valuable and versatile target for Young and a Crimson Tide offense that’s not hurting for star power. He could make an immediate impact in an offense that currently ranks in the NFL’s top five in both scoring and total yardage.
