China’s new Premier Li Qiang is currently on a visit to Germany, his first trip abroad since taking office in March. With France lined up as the next stop on his agenda, Li’s Western European excursion is the subject of much speculation amid strained relations between China and the EU.
Kicking off his first overseas trip since he was appointed to office three months ago, new Chinese Premier Li Qiang met with German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier on Monday after arriving in Berlin a day earlier.
Set to dine later with Chancellor Olaf Scholz ahead of the seventh inter-governmental consultation between the two nations planned for Tuesday, Li is expected later this week in Paris to attend the Summit for a New Global Financing Pact, a financial summit set for June 22-23 hosted by French President Emmanuel Macron.
Li’s visit has prompted speculation that he is on a charm offensive to renew relations that have come under strain over the war in Ukraine and the competition for dominance in the Asia Pacific. A Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson said ahead of the visit that bilateral relations had shown “resilience”, adding that China “hopes to deepen and expand its relations with Germany” as the world faces “turbulence, sluggish economic recovery and more global challenges”.
In publishing its first National Security Strategy last week, the German government said it viewed China as "a partner, competitor and systemic rival". German officials have expressed a desire to find a way of cooperating with China on issues of mutual interest, notably climate change, adopting the motto "Acting sustainably together" for Tuesday’s meeting.
But the same document also called China a growing threat to global security. In presenting Germany’s security stance, Scholz said a more detailed China strategy was also in the works.
Heightening tensions
Ever since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which the Chinese government has refused to condemn officially, relations between China and the EU have been under renewed pressure.
China’s “unprecedented” military drills off Taiwan’s coast back in April further fuelled tensions with the United States and the EU, both of which urged restraint while calling for peace in the Taiwan Strait.
At the G7 summit held in Hiroshima last month, Germany, France and Italy aligned with the United States to call for “derisking” their national interests – such as an overreliance on Chinese trade by diversifying supplies – from China while rejecting the idea of “decoupling” from the relationship, a strategy spearheaded by EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.
G7 leaders also expressed concern over Chinese “interference” in domestic matters, calling on China to refrain from “activities aimed at undermining” national security and economic interests as well as “the integrity of our democratic institutions”.
Beijing struck back by accusing the West of orchestrating a smear campaign, even summoning the Japanese ambassador to lodge an official complaint.
The West’s soft white underbelly
“China harbours a strong desire to boost its deteriorating image overseas, especially in the West, and it is seizing every opportunity,” said Sciences Po associate professor Antoine Bondaz, who is also a research fellow at the Foundation for Strategic Research.
Bondaz said a previous visit to Europe in February by China’s top diplomat Wang Yi was also part of China’s attempts to address deteriorating relations.
Fearing the united Western front that formed in response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Beijing is launching its charm offensive in Europe – which Bondaz said China regards as the West’s soft white underbelly.
“Beijing knows perfectly well that Western European leaders in France and Germany are far from willing to enter into a confrontation with China, and that they are also reluctant to completely align themselves with the US,” said Bondaz, citing Chinese President Xi Jingping’s warm welcome of Macron when he visited Beijing in April.
Upon his return to Europe, the French president elicited harsh criticism from Western partners over controversial remarks on how Europe should avoid following Washington’s lead on policy regarding Taiwan, even vowing not to be a US “vassal”.
>> Read more: France seeks to reassure Taiwan over Macron’s controversial remarks
But China is not merely trying to restore its image in Western Europe, it is also seeking to secure its trade relations with the EU. While in Germany Li will make a stop in Bavaria, the headquarters of such global brands as Adidas and Audi.
Entangled business ties
Faced with sluggish domestic market growth, Beijing’s leaders are looking to exports to boost its economy.
China was the EU’s largest imports partner in 2022, at 20.8 percent, and the third-largest destination for EU exports (at 9 percent) behind the United States (19.8 percent) and the UK (12.8 percent).
“China, of course, wants to export more to Europe, but Europe is looking to diversify and de-risk from China, as it is already far too dependent,” said Bondaz.
In recent years, the EU’s trade deficit with China has almost doubled from €165 billion in 2019 to more than €395 billion in 2022.
>> Read more: France-China trade ties: 'There is a greater risk due to the current geopolitical climate'
“EU leaders are very worried – especially France and Germany, who used to dominate automobile exports and thus enjoy a very comfortable trade surplus with China in that sector,” said Bondaz.
“But they’re slowly losing that edge. China is catching up and exporting their own automobiles in turn,” he added.
“China is obviously at odds with the EU in terms of economic and even political interest … the only way forward is for Europe to stop repeating slogans and actually de-risk from China in reality,” said Bondaz.
