Benjamin Netanyahu has thanked voters for a “huge vote of confidence” as his rightwing religious bloc extended its lead with about 87% of all votes counted in the country’s fifth election in four years.
The former prime minister’s Likud party appears to have added one seat to the 30 it held in the last Knesset. But a surge in support for his new far-right allies, the Religious Zionists, and what appears to be a poor showing for two pro-Arab rights parties and the leftwing Meretz party, means the scandal-plagued former leader is at present the most likely candidate to be able to form a coalition government in the aftermath of Tuesday’s election.
Likud is on track for a first-place finish, which when combined with ultra-Orthodox parties and the rightwing extremist slate could give Netanyahu’s bloc a comfortable 65-seat majority in the 120-seat Knesset.
The night’s strongest showing was from Netanyahu’s new partners, the Religious Zionists, which emerged as the third largest party with 13 or 14 seats, up from six in the last parliament. The party’s top candidate, the extremist Itamar Ben-Gvir, celebrated at an all-male campaign gathering overnight in Jerusalem, where people waved Israeli flags and chanted “death to terrorists”.
“It’s time we go back to being masters of our country,” Ben-Gvir said after the vote.
His supporters gathered in the flashpoint East Jerusalem neighbourhood of Sheikh Jarrah after the exit polls were published, shouting and throwing stones at Palestinians.
Netanyahu, speaking at the Likud’s campaign headquarters in the early hours of Wednesday after exit polls suggested a narrow majority for his camp, said his rightwing religious bloc was “alive and kicking”.
“We are on the brink of a very large victory,” Netanyahu told party members and activists. “The people want power, not weakness.”
Netanyahu’s main opponent, the centrist incumbent prime minister, Yair Lapid, said the race was not done yet, telling supporters on Wednesday morning that “until the last envelope is counted, nothing is over and nothing is final”. He said he would “continue to fight for Israel to be a Jewish and democratic, liberal and progressive state”.
By Wednesday afternoon, however, he had asked his office to prepare for a transition of power, and he cancelled his trip to next week’s Cop27 climate conference in Egypt.
Lapid’s broad anti-Netanyahu camp, which managed to oust the longtime leader from power last year, was on course to win just 54 seats in the 120-seat Knesset, as exit polls had suggested.
Even tiny adjustments could yet prevent Likud’s return to power, but with most votes counted, leftwing parties began cancelling election parties.
In Israel’s fragmented politics, no single party wins a parliamentary majority, and coalition-building is necessary to govern. Official results will not be released until next week, and negotiations between parties could drag out for three months, after which another election would have to be called next year.
As with the four previous elections held since 2019, Tuesday’s poll was largely a referendum on whether the scandal-ridden Netanyahu was fit for office. Turnout on Tuesday was higher than it had been since 2015, as voters attempted to break the paralysing political deadlock of the past few years.
Palestinian citizens of Israel, who comprise 20% of the population, were predicted to be a key factor in blocking Netanyahu’s return to office. This time around, however, their vote was split among three different factions, meaning many votes were wasted.
Ben-Gvir, a former follower of the banned Kach terrorist group with a conviction for inciting racism, has promised to support legislation that would alter the legal code, which could help Netanyahu evade a conviction in his corruption trial.
Netanyahu has faced accusations that he gave preferential treatment to an Israeli telecom company in exchange for positive articles on its news site, and that he received gifts worth hundreds of thousands of dollars from wealthy friends. He denies the charges, which his ardent supporters say are part of a witch-hunt. Netanyahu’s many detractors say the former leader’s attempts to undermine the Israeli judicial system have damaged the public’s faith in democratic institutions.
The apparent success of the far-right party sets the stage for possible conflict with Israel’s international partners. The US and the UAE have reportedly warned Likud that giving the Religious Zionists cabinet roles would damage bilateral relations. Netanyahu has said such a choice cannot be made by outsiders.
A new far-right coalition in power would make peace with the Palestinians less likely than ever. Ben-Gvir has said he would lobby for the deportation of “disloyal” Palestinian citizens of Israel, and he is in favour of total annexation of the occupied West Bank.
A Religious Zionist member has already raised the possibility that their government will change the status quo on Jerusalem’s holy Temple Mount, an issue that has helped provoke several wars.
Many Palestinians expressed fears on Wednesday that the prospect of the most extremist government in Israeli history was a prelude to further escalation of the decades-long conflict. Mohammad Shtayyeh, the prime minister of the Palestinian Authority, said: “The results confirm that we have no partner in Israel for peace.”
