Get all your news in one place.

100’s of premium titles.
One app.

Start reading

Get all your news in one place.

100’s of premium titles. One news app.

Start reading

Sports Illustrated

Sport

Jeremy Woo

NBA Mock Draft: Magic Win Lottery, Latest Projections

NBA Magic Jaden Ivey Shaedon Sharpe Chet Holmgren Jabari Smith Jr Keegan Murray Paolo Banchero Kings (Organization) Orlando (Organization)

CHICAGO — The Orlando Magic were the big winners of Tuesday night’s draft lottery, walking away with the No. 1 pick and a franchise-changing decision to make over the next month. Joining them in the pantheon of great results were the Thunder (who moved up to No. 2 from No. 4) and the Kings (who grabbed the No. 4 pick and moved up from No. 7). The lottery took place amidst a busy week here at the draft combine, where G League Elite camp wrapped up Tuesday and the combine proper begins on Wednesday. With the entire NBA gathering in one place and the rumor mill heating up behind the scenes, the draft puzzle will only get more fascinating from here.

As usual, this mock draft aims to predict what the picks would look like if they took place on a given day. My projections are heavily informed by intel from around the NBA and ongoing conversations with executives, scouts and others around the industry, in addition to my own personal evaluations of players, which in many cases date back years. Note that these are *not* player rankings: for that, take a look at our latest Big Board, which we’ll update again after players make final decisions on whether to stay in the draft.

1. Magic: Jabari Smith Jr., F, Auburn

Height: 6' 10" | Weight: 220 | Age: 19 | Freshman

Orlando struck gold on Tuesday, converting on top odds and winning the lottery for the first time since 2004, when they landed a franchise-changing player in Dwight Howard. While the broader narrative has been that the top of this draft is wide open, for most of the past six months, the vast majority of executives I’ve spoken with around the NBA consider Smith the big prize in this year’s class. The Magic will certainly do their due diligence on all of the top prospects, but for the time being, I’d operate under the assumption the pick will be Smith. His arrival might mean that Orlando, in the long run, moves on from Jonathan Isaac, whose checkered injury history makes it difficult to view him as an essential piece of the rebuild.

Smith is the youngest of the top prospects by a meaningful margin and brings a rare collection of plus attributes to the table: great positional size, elite jump shooting, modern defensive versatility and an advanced competitive mindset. Smith will have to expand his array of moves and work on getting to the rim more often, but there’s so much to like about a prospect who is polished in so many ways, yet still at a highly nascent stage of his basketball development. I’d take him at the top with confidence.

2. Thunder: Chet Holmgren, F/C, Gonzaga

Height: 7' 0" | Weight: 190 | Age: 20 | Freshman

Oklahoma City moves up from No. 4 to No. 2, an outcome they’ll be pleased with after slipping out of the top four entirely last season. While nobody is ever exactly sure what Sam Presti is thinking, and the Thunder will surely explore all options, Holmgren’s mix of size, skill and upside fits their general ethos quite well. He’ll be in consideration at No. 1 with the Magic, but in this scenario, he comes off the board one pick later.

Holmgren has been a polarizing player amongst teams I’ve spoken with, but everyone pretty much acknowledges his upside as a high-impact defender with some offensive versatility. He has the size and length to protect the basket, and instincts that have mostly compensated for his lack of strength. What should be tested for the first time in the NBA is his foot speed defending in space and covering ground, and if Holmgren proves he can battle on switches and menace drivers as a roving rim protector, whatever else he gives you as a scorer will be gravy. He is a capable jump shooter and has great touch around the basket, but isn’t likely to be an offensive focal point early in his career, if at all. The Thunder have the patience to take a big swing here, and Holmgren should address a major need for improved interior defense.

3. Rockets: Paolo Banchero, F, Duke

Height: 6' 10" | Weight: 250 | Age: 19 | Freshman

Houston will draft in the top three for the second year in a row and has a clear need for frontcourt help, which will be available to them at this spot. While they didn’t win the lottery, they’re still in a favorable position here. Jaden Ivey doesn’t make a whole lot of sense next to the ball-dominant Jalen Green anyway, and Banchero would be an excellent fit if he falls here. The Rockets have the time and patience to find the right players to put around him, and he’s ready to produce as a rookie.

Banchero is the most polished offensive player in the draft, with a unique mix of power, skill and passing chops that lets him operate all over the floor as a playmaking fulcrum. Teams are openly wondering whether he’s a good enough defender to hold his own in the increasingly space-oriented NBA, and his jumper can be inconsistent. He had a strong freshman season on the whole and should be prepared to help contribute on a rebuilding team immediately. Banchero’s feel for scoring and finding teammates should take him a long way, and if his shot-making and defense trend up, there should be All-Star caliber seasons in his future. His playmaking should help take some pressure off Jalen Green, and he’d give Houston a second foundational piece to work with.

4. Kings: Shaedon Sharpe, SG, Kentucky

Height: 6' 5" | Weight: 200 | Age: 19 | Freshman

The Kings were among the biggest winners on Tuesday, moving up from No. 7 to No. 4, which puts them in a fascinating position. Presuming the top three bigs are off the board, they may have a tricky choice to make here: Jaden Ivey’s skill set creates some obvious duplication with De’Aaron Fox. And while Sharpe is much less proven, he looks like a natural complement to what’s already on the roster. Having said that, it’s also entirely possible Sacramento could explore trade-back opportunities, considering the franchise’s emphasis on fighting for the playoffs, and the potential value of this selection, considering it may be an opportunity for another team to move into the perceived top tier of prospects and select one. This is an interesting pivot point in the lottery to monitor.

Based on the buzz at the combine, where Sharpe put on a lengthy pro day workout on Monday that included some dazzling footwork and shot-making, it feels very much like he’s going to hear his name called in the top five on draft night. I’d also scrap the notion that the first four picks are locked in as there's a very real chance Sharpe crashes the party. He’s an amazing athlete who can create space for himself and is also a gifted shooter—rarely do those things all come in one teenage prospect. There are definitely areas of his game he needs to iron out, and he’s behind his peers in terms of high-level game experience, but Sharpe’s upside is significant to the point where someone is going to take a swing. The Kings will have to think hard about it.

5. Pistons: Jaden Ivey, G, Purdue

Height: 6' 4" | Weight: 200 | Age: 20 | Sophomore

The Pistons drew the short straw on Tuesday night, missing out a top-four pick despite favorable odds and slipping to No. 5 in the draft. After winning the lottery last year and landing Cade Cunningham, Detroit remains in a terrific spot to add to its core, with either Ivey or Sharpe likely available to them, and both making a lot of sense for the roster. The Pistons need to get more athletic and add scorers to their roster, and they’re in position to do that despite some unfortunate lottery luck.

The pronounced highs and lows of Ivey’s breakout season gave the NBA plenty to nitpick, but ultimately, his unique speed and explosiveness as a downhill playmaker present way too much upside to overthink. He should benefit more than most from the freedom and space of the pro game, and if his passing chops and decision-making tick upward as he matures, Ivey is going to be very hard to stop. He has the ability to be a very good defender when he tries, he shoots the three well enough to think it keeps improving, and if he can slow down the game for himself mentally while still attacking at a breakneck pace, Ivey can be a star. Playing alongside Cunningham would make his life much easier, and he’s an excellent option for Detroit here—assuming he doesn’t come off the board sooner.

6. Pacers: Keegan Murray, F, Iowa

Height: 6' 8" | Weight: 215 | Age: 21 | Sophomore

Murray had a strong argument as the best player in college basketball last season,and will likely be the oldest player drafted in the lottery. The age stigma matters less in his case, as Murray was a true late-blooming prospect who’s proven capable of carrying an offense and also being a high-level defender. He won’t be cast as a No. 1 option in the NBA, which should allow him to better balance his energy to impact both ends. His playmaking and jump shooting can certainly improve and would make him even more dynamic. Murray can defend multiple positions and score from all over the floor, and he’s going to help a team next season. The Pacers have a hole at power forward after trading Domantas Sabonis, and while they’ll have their pick from among this next group of prospects, Murray makes a lot of sense here on paper.

7. Trail Blazers: Bennedict Mathurin, SG, Arizona

Height: 6' 6" | Weight: 210 | Age: 19 | Sophomore

Mathurin cashed in on a big opportunity at Arizona, emerging as a go-to scorer and a force in transition while polishing up his game as a playmaker and defender. He’s a high-level athlete with some untapped skill potential, and he should be able to help contribute buckets as a complementary scorer next season. Mathurin isn’t the most intuitive player, but it still feels like he’s coming into his own. He displayed confidence and character while coming up big in some notable spots over the course of the season. He’s also young for a sophomore, which makes his individual development over the past year that much more encouraging. He’s an interesting fit in Portland, which needs to find supporting scorers around Damian Lillard and could use help on the wing.

8. Pelicans: Dyson Daniels, G/F, G League Ignite

Height: 6' 6" | Weight: 200 | Age: 19

With a strong overall showing as an 18-year-old in the G League, Daniels played his way into legitimate top 10 consideration and is an excellent option for teams hoping to plug-and-play their first-round pick next season. He’s extremely well-rounded for his age, with the size, strength and smarts to defend four positions while playing all over the floor on offense. His catch-and-shoot game remains a work in progress, but he showed improvement on that end as the year went on and figures to make enough shots to keep defenses honest. Daniels has no glaring holes in his game, and while he’s not going to be a No. 1 scoring option in the NBA, very few players ever are. He is among the most versatile players in the draft and could help form some fascinating super-sized lineups in New Orleans.

9. Spurs: Johnny Davis, SG, Wisconsin

Height: 6' 4" | Weight: 195 | Age: 20 | Sophomore

Davis boasts many of the traits San Antonio has traditionally favored in prospects: he is an intense competitor and worker, has strong feel on both ends of the floor, and boasts an unusually adept mid-range touch that teams hope will lead to more consistency from deep. He’s among the safer prospects in the lottery, and his rapid development points to even more room for growth, considering how seriously he takes his craft. As a smaller two-guard who’s more of a natural scorer than lead playmaker, you have to really believe in Davis’s intangibles to see star potential. But the likelihood he’s a longtime valuable player feels quite high regardless, and he figures to come off the board in the back half of the top 10.

10. Wizards: Jalen Duren, C, Memphis

Height: 6' 11" | Weight: 250 | Age: 18 | Freshman

Although Duren is more of a traditional big, he’s physically quite gifted and holds some appeal as a potential long-term center worth developing. He’s a powerful leaper with a mature frame, good hands and feet, and some untapped skill potential. Teams have some concerns over his inconsistent motor and occasionally questionable instincts, but to be fair, he made the leap from high school basketball a year early and is one of the youngest players in the entire class. The Wizards have drafted several forwards in recent years, and in this scenario the top guards are off the board, so taking a chance on Duren as part of the long-term equation up front makes some sense.

11. Knicks: A.J. Griffin, G/F, Duke

Height: 6' 6" | Weight: 220 | Age: 18 | Freshman

Griffin remains a somewhat polarizing prospect for teams: he is an outstanding jump shooter, but left something to be desired from an athletic standpoint this season, and front offices are cognizant of his injury history. If he can get back to the type of explosive athlete he was early in his high school career, there’s certainly some added upside here, and the fact he’s one of the youngest players in the draft helps his case. It may take him longer than some lottery picks to contribute, but he should appeal to teams in this part of the draft searching for value. The Knicks are entering an important offseason and might prefer someone closer to giving them minutes next season, but adding a young shooter of Griffin’s caliber might be too tempting here.

12. Thunder (from Clippers): Jeremy Sochan, F, Baylor

Height: 6' 8" | Weight: 220 | Age: 18 | Freshman

Sochan, who turns 19 on Friday, is one of the most intriguing prospects in the draft from a defensive standpoint, as a tough, switchable frontcourt player with a mature approach. His offensive game is more of a work in progress, but he is a good ball-handler and passer at his size and has shown the capacity to shoot from distance. Bigs like Sochan seem to be where the game is headed, and as long as his offensive game keeps expanding, he’s likely to be a valuable player for someone. There are feasible scenarios where he could wind up off the board higher than this. The Thunder would really enhance their defense in this scenario by adding Sochan and Holmgren, two versatile players who would add instant character and toughness to their rebuild.

13. Hornets: Ochai Agbaji, SG, Kansas

Height: 6' 5" | Weight: 215 | Age: 22 | Senior

With the 13th and 15th picks in hand, the Hornets have myriad options, making them a team to watch closely. Charlotte can choose to pair two prospects it likes, it can try to combine its picks to move up, or it can use them as chips to create value and upgrade a roster that came close to making the playoffs. Last year’s first-rounders, James Bouknight and Kai Jones, didn’t make much of an impact, but could be slated for bigger roles next season, particularly with a new head coach on the way. Agbaji is ready to help a team in a complementary role, and his shooting and defense would steady Charlotte’s rotation. He should be available in the late lottery, and this is a nice fit for both team and player.

14. Cavaliers: Malaki Branham, SG, Ohio State

Height: 6' 5" | Weight: 180 | Age: 19 | Freshman

The Cavaliers got immediate results from the Evan Mobley-Jarrett Allen frontcourt pairing and certainly don’t need to draft another big. That makes this pick a logical landing spot for a perimeter player. Cleveland needs another wing, and Branham, an Ohio native who was the state’s Mr. Basketball last year, would have runway to develop without immediate pressure. Branham’s blossoming offensive game could give them a spark off the bench, and he could eventually step in for Collin Sexton if Cleveland chooses to move on from him. He figures to come off the board somewhere in the teens.

15. Hornets (from Pelicans): Mark Williams, C, Duke

Height: 7' 0" | Weight: 240 | Age: 20 | Sophomore

On paper, Williams looks like a strong target for Charlotte, which has needed a long-term center for some time. He’d be a useful lob target and transition sprinter alongside LaMelo Ball, and should eventually be an impactful defender with his huge frame and solid instincts. He could come off the board before the Hornets’ pick at No. 13, but if he’s available, he makes quite a bit of sense. Considering that Cleveland—which seems highly unlikely to draft a center—is sandwiched between Charlotte’s two picks, the Hornets could theoretically pass on Williams at No. 13 and get him at No. 15, barring any trades. Grabbing him here would be a coup.

16. Hawks: Tari Eason, F, LSU

Height: 6' 8" Weight: 215 | Age: 21 | Sophomore

This is a pretty big offseason for Atlanta, which has tied up a lot of money in its roster, but didn’t deliver on the promise it showed during its run in the 2021 playoffs. Eason is a bit of a work in progress despite already being 21, but he’s long, athletic and productive. He consistently impacted games with his physicality. His ability to play in transition and guard multiple positions should appeal to the Hawks, who wouldn’t ask him to make on-ball decisions and can empower him to simply bring energy. Eason’s basketball IQ is a bit suspect, he’s foul-prone and an average shooter, but if he can iron those things out he should be able to help a team. He fits quite well with Trae Young in theory, and if Atlanta opts to trade John Collins, he’d give them cover at the four.

17. Rockets (from Nets): Ousmane Dieng, F, New Zealand Breakers

Height: 6' 9" | Weight: 185 | Age: 18

Houston proved last year it was willing to think outside the box and again has multiple first-round picks to play with. The Rockets seem comfortable drafting international talent, and Dieng, who turns 19 on Saturday, started coming into his own toward the back end of his season in Australia. The Rockets’ roster could use a bigger wing or two, and Dieng’s size and playmaking potential might be of interest here, particularly as Houston is in no hurry to win games anytime soon. Dieng isn’t a great athlete and comes with some risk, but he appears to be on a positive trajectory. The Rockets can afford him time to learn. Based on the upside, his range starts in the teens and probably runs into the 20s.

18. Bulls: Patrick Baldwin Jr., F, Milwaukee

Height: 6' 9" | Weight: 220 | Age: 19 | Freshman

For as weird of a season as Baldwin had, he remains a very legitimate top 20 talent: he’s an elite jump shooter for his size, big enough to play the four, and he has a strong feel for the game. The catch here is that in order for him to realize his potential, he needs to be able to stay healthy, improve his conditioning, regain his confidence and string games together. Teams will have to feel comfortable with that in order to draft him, but I’d expect Baldwin to help himself in workouts and interviews and ultimately wind up with his stock in a good place. Chicago could certainly use another frontcourt shooter and would be an interesting landing spot considering his local ties and fit with the Bulls’ roster.

19. Timberwolves: Walker Kessler, C, Auburn

Height: 7' 1" | Weight: 245 | Age: 20 | Sophomore

The Timberwolves made strides this season but need to find the right mix of pieces around Karl-Anthony Towns and Anthony Edwards. At some point, they might want to think about pairing Towns with a gigantic center to help stabilize their defense for stretches of the game and take some pressure off of him. Kessler would be an interesting experiment here, particularly if he can be a consistent floor-spacer, and he’d give Minnesota’s frontcourt some much-needed extra size and backbone at the rim. He was the most prolific shot-blocker in college basketball last season, brings fairly good athleticism to his position and should be in play for teams in the mid-to-late first round.

20. Spurs (from Raptors): E.J. Liddell, PF, Ohio State

Height: 6' 7" | Weight: 240 | Age: 21 | Junior

With three first-round picks and four selections in the top 40, expect the Spurs to be active leading up to the draft, considering they’re already young and don’t need to roster four rookies. Liddell makes for an interesting fit here, giving San Antonio a more rugged option to rotate into the mix. He is active on both ends, had a terrific college career and is more versatile than he gets credit for, fitting a mold similar to forwards like P.J. Washington and Grant Williams. He has a chance to plug in and play positive minutes as a rookie, and fits the Spurs’ traditional ethos with his quiet, consistent approach.

21. Nuggets: Blake Wesley, G, Notre Dame

Height: 6' 5" | Weight: 185 | Age: 19 | Freshman

Wesley has a pretty wide range due to his combination of upside and risk: he is extremely fast and showed flashes of brilliance as a freshman, but he’s also quite raw and may be a bit stuck between positions for the time being. His predraft process will hinge on how effectively he can persuade teams that he’ll reach that potential: he’ll either need to become a much more effective catch-and-shoot player, or get a lot of reps playing on the ball and sharpening his decision-making (potentially in the G League). A playoff team like Denver wouldn’t have to rush him into minutes, and the Nuggets tend to be comfortable taking chances on upside. They don’t have a slashing guard like Wesley on the roster, and he could pay real dividends in the long run.

22. Grizzlies (from Jazz): Kendall Brown, F, Baylor

Height: 6' 8" | Weight: 205 | Age: 19 | Freshman

Teams seem to be all over the board evaluating Brown, due primarily to his offensive limitations. There are varying levels of uncertainty around the league that he can become a plus contributor on that end, factoring in his lack of confidence in his jumper and limited handle. Still, Brown has some feel for playing with teammates, he’s a terrific athlete, and he profiles as a solid defender due to his tools and know-how. It feels like he’s a ways away from helping a team, and fit will be critical—if a good organization can figure out how to get the most out of him, Brown could be a nice value pick if he falls outside the top 20. Memphis has shown a willingness to take risks and buck trends in the draft, and he’d be an interesting project to take on.

23. Nets (from 76ers): TyTy Washington, G, Kentucky

Height: 6' 3" | Weight: 200 | Age: 20 | Freshman

Remember that the Nets have until June 1 to decide whether to take this pick from the 76ers, or defer it until next year, so this could wind up being Philadelphia at this spot. Considering the state of the Nets’ aging bench, there’s room on the roster for a rookie who can give them immediate minutes. Washington’s stock remains in some flux after an inconsistent freshman season in which he battled injuries and ultimately raised more questions than expected about his game. While he still figures to go in the first round, he’ll need a positive predraft process to solidify a place in the top 20, with a number of guards making more compelling cases at the moment. Washington is a capable shooter and unselfish passer who profiles as a useful complementary player, and would be an interesting option for Brooklyn here.

24. Bucks: Jaden Hardy, SG, G League Ignite

Height: 6' 4" | Weight: 200 | Age: 19

Milwaukee could use another scorer to upgrade the backcourt, making them an interesting fit for Hardy, a talented shooter who still needs to round out the rest of his game. Hardy’s stock fluctuated heavily this year, but he ended the season on a positive note and should have flashed enough to maintain first-round interest. He’s going to have an uphill climb toward ideal efficiency, but he can make shots, has fairly good size and ultimately benefited from the challenge of the G League. While Hardy may no longer be projected as a lottery talent, there’s still reason to believe he ultimately finds a niche as a supporting scorer. The Bucks haven’t kept a first-round pick since 2018, but many of their future firsts belong to other teams and the roster is getting older. This might be a good juncture to keep their pick and add a young talent.

25. Spurs (from Celtics): Wendell Moore, G/F, Duke

Height: 6' 5" | Weight: 215 | Age: 20 | Junior

The Spurs may not wind up keeping all their first-rounders here, but Moore makes sense for their style of play as a glue guy who can help early on. He has a strong complementary skill set, with defensive versatility, playmaking skills and the ability to play with and without the ball. He doesn’t profile as a high-end scorer, but he is unselfish and should be able to make teammates better. Moore had a terrific junior year and wound up somewhat underappreciated in the run of things, due in part to all the other talent on his team, but he was the engine that drove the Blue Devils. After grabbing a two-guard and a four-man with their first two picks, San Antonio adds a multipositional role player here with Moore.

26. Mavericks: MarJon Beauchamp, SF, G League Ignite

Height: 6' 6" | Weight: 200 | Age: 21

Beauchamp makes for an interesting fit in Dallas, where he wouldn’t have to create many shots and can focus on fitting in next to Luka Doncic. He’s a terrific athlete who made big strides after taking an unorthodox path to the G League, and he looks the part, although his feel is somewhat questionable. To be fair, he didn’t have a ton of high-level game experience prior to this season, but he’s also already 21. If Beauchamp improves his jumper and lands in a simplified role, he could thrive. He’s an interesting option in this part of the draft. His tools are pretty high-level, but he’ll need to prove he can fit a 3-and-D mold. He needs some work in both those areas.

27. Heat: Bryce McGowens, SG, Nebraska

Height: 6' 7" | Weight: 180 | Age: 19 | Freshman

McGowens put up decent numbers on a bad Nebraska team, showcasing his ability to score the ball but also how far he has to go in other areas. He badly needs a change of scenery, and a stable situation like Miami could be great for his development. He is tall and long and has good instincts, but struggles to shoot the three and doesn’t have much of an off-ball skill set yet. He has a lot to learn, particularly on the defensive and, and if the jumper doesn’t develop, he’ll face tough sledding. But as an oversized shot-creator with length and the ability to create, McGowens has some palpable appeal as a long-term project. He should be in play in this part of the first round.

28. Warriors: Terquavion Smith, SG, N.C. State

Height: 6' 4" | Weight: 160 | Age: 19 | Freshman

After an impressive shot-making season, Smith has gone from off the radar to potential first-round pick, although he has work to do in the predraft process to solidify that status. He’s gifted at both creating shots and shooting from distance, and teams are eager to learn more about him, based on his unique trajectory. He can still return to college, where he’d be due for a star turn, but there may be enough interest for Smith to turn pro now. He needs to get much stronger before seriously contributing, but would fit well on a playoff team that wouldn’t need to rush his development. He’s a prospect to track this week at the combine, with some buzz that’s gradually built around the league.

29. Grizzlies: Max Christie, SG, Michigan State

Height: 6' 6" | Weight: 190 | Age: 19 | Freshman

Christie announced this week that he intends to remain in this draft, and despite an inconsistent freshman year, he continues to draw his share of serious interest around the NBA. He’s a smooth mover with a frame that should fill out as he gets older, and projects as a good shooter in the long run. It’s not a total surprise that he struggled a bit adjusting to the Big Ten, and wings with his prototypical size and skillset tend to get the benefit of the doubt from teams. He feels like a fairly good bet to land somewhere in the first round at the moment, and he’d be a nice project for Memphis, which has done an excellent job with drafting and development in recent years.

30. Thunder (from Suns): Trevor Keels, SG, Duke

Height: 6' 4" | Weight: 220 | Age: 18 | Freshman

If Keels stays in the draft, he could give Duke five first-round picks—and he’s the only one still on the fence about returning to school. He’s got a huge frame, plays with poise, and had some impressive moments as a freshman, but there were also games where his jumper didn’t fall and he didn’t produce much. The idea here in the long term is something like a poor man’s Malcolm Brogdon, as a jumbo combo guard who can play on and off the ball and impact the game as a shooter and playmaker. It helps that Keels doesn’t turn 19 until August, and he’d have a legitimate opportunity to improve his stock by going back, slimming down and taking leadership at Duke. The Thunder are among the teams that could take him now and be patient.