Data and polling expert Nate Silver recently released his first presidential election forecast, revealing that former President Trump is solidly favored to win the White House. Silver, known for his work on the polling analysis website FiveThirtyEight, shared his insights in a 'Silver Bulletin' substack.
Based on a model that included 40,000 simulations, Silver's forecast indicated that Trump had a 65.7% chance of winning the electoral college, while Biden trailed with a 33.7% chance. Despite this, Biden is slightly favored to win the popular vote, similar to the outcome in the 2016 election where Trump secured victory through narrow swing state wins despite losing the popular vote.
Silver emphasized the importance of considering the Electoral College/popular vote gap, highlighting that a close popular vote could put Biden at a disadvantage. His model adjusts for various factors such as the type of voters surveyed, the presence of certain individuals, and polling reliability.
While acknowledging that Biden still has time to improve his standing, Silver suggested that the president might consider passing the nomination to Vice President Harris or another candidate at the Democratic convention. However, he also cautioned that such a move could have unforeseen consequences.
Despite Trump's lead in the forecast, Silver noted that Biden is not far behind and that the race is not a toss-up. He criticized the notion of labeling it as such, arguing that it allows forecasters and decision-makers to evade accountability for their predictions and actions.
