As Canada heads to the polls on Monday, a historic shift in national identity and foreign policy is unfolding, driven by growing disillusionment with the United States and a renewed embrace of European alliances.
Across Canada there is a strong sense that this crucial election is about more than domestic policy.
It is being seen as a referendum not just on leadership, but on Canada’s place in the world – particularly in terms of its increasingly strained relationship with the United States and a growing desire to forge closer ties with allies in Europe.
“This election really matters,” said Shachi Kurl, president of the Angus Reid Institute, a Canadian, non-profit polling organisation.
“More than nine in 10 Canadians say it’s more important than the last two elections – and over seven and a half million have already voted early. That’s huge, in a country of just over 40 million."
From Trudeau to Carney
The election follows the resignation of Justin Trudeau in January, after nearly a decade in office.
While once a global liberal icon, Trudeau had seen his domestic popularity plunge, and by the end of 2024 his Liberal Party was trailing the opposition Conservatives by 30 percentage points.
His departure set the stage for Mark Carney, the former Bank of England governor, to step into the political spotlight as the new Liberal party leader.
But it wasn’t just the change in Liberal leadership that shifted the political winds.
“The other main character,” as Kurl put it, “was Donald Trump."
Trump unveils sweeping US tariffs on Canada, Mexico, China - EU next?
Trump’s re-emergence on the US political stage – and his increasingly provocative comments about Canada – electrified the Canadian political conversation.
He floated ideas about annexation, referred to Canada as "ripe for reabsorption", and reintroduced aggressive trade rhetoric – all of which triggered a wave of public backlash north of the border.
“Canadians initially dismissed it as Trump being Trump,” Kurl told RFI. “But the more he talked, the more seriously people took it. There was real anger, a sense of betrayal – and the politicians who leaned into that emotion did well”.
Canada's shift towards 'like-minded' allies
Nationalism, the Canadian way
Carney responded with a tone rarely seen in Canadian politics: firm, unapologetic nationalism.
He rejected Trump’s rhetoric outright, reiterated Canada's sovereignty and committed to defending Canadian interests – economically and politically.
“We don’t tend to do overt nationalism in Canada,” Kurl explained. “But this time, it worked.
"We saw a huge swing in the polls – from a 30-point deficit to a five-point Liberal lead today. And that shift is in no small part down to Carney embracing a message of pride and independence."
What’s changed most dramatically is the tone of Canada’s relationship with the US, once its closest ally.
Kurl notes that Canadian travel to the US has dropped significantly in recent months, a reflection of a more widespread cooling of sentiment towards the country's southern neighbour.
“The US was Canada’s best friend – not just its biggest trading partner, but emotionally too. And now people are saying, this just isn’t working."
And for Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, this has been a missed opportunity, as he ignored the Trump factor until the campaign was already under way.
For Kurl, Poilievre's recognition of Canadian anger and disappointment with the US came "too little, too late".
New Canadian PM in Europe to seek 'reliable partners' amidst trade war with US
Looking towards Europe
In Carney’s first foreign visit as prime minister, he bypassed Washington opting instead to meet with French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris.
The symbolism was clear: Canada is looking elsewhere for dependable allies.
That shift is not just diplomatic theatre. The Carney-Macron meeting produced agreements on cybersecurity, clean energy and artificial intelligence, and reaffirmed both countries’ support for Ukraine.
This new strategic alignment has deep roots – particularly in Quebec, where cultural and historical ties to France have given the pivot to Europe added momentum and legitimacy.
“It’s not just short-term crisis management,” said Kurl. “Canada’s been burned before by Trump. During his first term, we saw the renegotiation of Nafta and a lot of anti-Canada trade rhetoric. But nothing really changed – the economy remained heavily tied to the US. This time, there’s a real sense that we need to act, not just wait it out."
That said, a full break with the US is not on the cards.
“There can never be a complete divorce,” Kurl concedes. “Our economies are deeply intertwined, and we share a very, very long border. But there is a renewed focus: Canada must diversify its economic relationships. It can’t afford not to."
French PM defends Ceta trade deal on visit to Canada, despite lawmakers' rejection
For voters, this election is about who can best protect Canada’s independence, its values and its interests, in an increasingly volatile international environment.
As Kurl said: "Canadians are taking this election very seriously, because they know what’s at stake. The question is no longer just, who should lead us? It’s, where do we go from here?"
Interview with Shachi Kurl - President, Angus Reid Institute, Vancouver
