More than 200,000 children will be living in short-term emergency accommodation in England to keep them off the streets by the end of this parliament, according to projections by the housing charity Shelter.
The analysis shows that 206,000 children will be living in temporary accommodation by 2029 – a 26% increase over five years – while the cost to the taxpayer is set to rise by 71% to £3.9bn a year.
The figures, which take account of government policies and projected house prices, show how England’s housing crisis is playing out behind the closed doors of bedsits, hostels and bed and breakfasts across the country.
A Guardian investigation has shown English councils are on average paying 60% above market rent to secure spaces in emergency accommodation, with a £2bn industry now having developed to house people who otherwise would end up on the street. Many are having to stay in temporary accommodation for several years, often in dangerous, unhealthy and unsanitary conditions.
Mairi MacRae, director of policy and campaigns at Shelter, said: “It is a national shame that so many thousands of children in England are growing up in cramped, insecure temporary accommodation – sharing beds with siblings, eating dinner from trays on their laps, and being moved from one place to the next with no stability. This should never be the reality for any child, but without urgent action, the number of homeless families is set to soar.
“Local councils are buckling under the pressure of the housing emergency, forced to spend billions just to keep people off the streets. It’s nonsensical that we keep sinking taxpayers money into damaging short-term fixes when we could invest in lasting solutions that give families the security and stability of a real home.”
Councils in England are meant to use temporary accommodation as a stopgap when a person or family first approaches them asking to be housed and until they have decided whether they are under a statutory duty to give them more permanent housing. But the lack of social housing means people are often being left for years in bedsits or bed and breakfasts – including those with children.
Government figures show nearly 17,000 families have now been living in temporary accommodation for over five years. In London, more than 60% of households with children in temporary accommodation have been there for two years or more.
Many of these rooms and flats are dirty, pest-ridden and unsafe, according to people who have lived in them. The Guardian spoke to people who complained about mouse infestations, a lack of space for children and unsafe communal areas.
The Shelter projections suggest the problem will get much worse over the next few years, even with government action to tackle the problem.
The charity analysed historic data to show the rate of increase in temporary accommodation.
Analysts then factored in the likely effect of the renters’ rights bill, which will stop private landlords evicting tenants without due cause, and recent increases in government funding for affordable housing.
Both of these policies will limit the number of people having to approach authorities for emergency accommodation. But Shelter found that neither will be enough to compensate for the expected rise in private rents over the period.
The analysis shows that by 2029, an estimated 182,000 households will be in temporary accommodation – a 44% increase on current levels.
Experts warn the rise is likely to put further pressure on cash-strapped councils, pushing more closer to the brink of bankruptcy. But they say the problem can be alleviated with a major boost to social housebuilding.
While Angela Rayner, the housing secretary, has promised the Labour government will deliver the biggest boost to affordable housing in a generation, many in the sector say this will not be achievable without a major boost in funding at the spending review in June.
Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, will announce at that point how much she intends to put into the affordable housing programme over the next five years, with campaigners calling for it to be given several billion pounds a year.
MacRae said: “The spending review in June is a critical moment for the government to act. If they are serious about ending homelessness, they must commit to building 90,000 new social homes a year for a decade – ensuring that every family has the foundation of a genuinely affordable, stable home.”
