Closing summary
… and on that note, it’s a wrap from me, Jakub Krupa.
Here are the three things to take away from today’s Europe Live blog:
Polish prime minister Donald Tusk dropped a hint that there are plans for European leaders to meet in London this Sunday to discuss defence and security issues (12:05). If confirmed, it would come at the end of a week in which both France’s Macron and UK’s Starmer meet Trump in Washington (12:28).
Most likely next German chancellor Friedrich Merz has confirmed that formal talks about forming a coalition government with the Social Democratic party are now under way (15:03). But he warned the SPD that they would need to shift their policy on migration (15:31), despite earlier pointed criticism from the party’s leader in talks (10:31).
British prime minister Keir Starmer announced plans to “begin the biggest sustained increase in defence spending since the end of the cold war,” hoping to reach 2.5% (or 2.6% when counting new funding for intelligence and security services) GDP in 2027 (13:48). This would put the UK as the seventh highest spender (as a % of GDP) within Nato, according to 2024 figures collated by Nato and published by the British parliament. (13:50)
And that’s all from me, Jakub Krupa, for today.
If you have any tips, comments or suggestions, email me at jakub.krupa@theguardian.com.
I am also on Bluesky at @jakubkrupa.bsky.social and on X at @jakubkrupa.
Updated
Tesla sales in Europe fall after Musk's involvement in politics
Sales of new Tesla cars almost halved in Europe last month, indicating waning demand for the US carmaker’s vehicles as its chief executive Elon Musk intervened repeatedly in the politics on both sides of the Atlantic.
The Texas-based carmaker sold 9,945 vehicles in Europe in January, down 45% from last year’s 18,161, according to data from the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association (ACEA). Tesla’s share of the market dropped to 1% from 1.8%.
This could suggest that Musk’s interventions in European political affairs and senior role in Donald Trump’s administration defunding and depopulating the US government – including shutting down its aid programme – are leading to a consumer backlash.
Merz was also asked about the reported plans to change the constitutional debt break (11:27) and said it was “out of the question in the near future.”
He also talked about a potential one-off defence fund, reported by media, but said it was “too early to say anything about it now.”
In response to a question, he also insisted that he wanted to progress his plans for toughening the rules on migration and asylum – despite previous criticism on this point from the SPD.
“This is not an election campaign, not a tactical exchange of position. The majority of the population desperately wants an improvement … and it is our job … to meet these wishes,” he said.
Speaking alongside Merz, Söder insisted that the new government would have to focus on delivery as the only way of countering the rise of the far-right Alternative für Deutschland.
He welcomed the election outcome, saying that the ultimate failure of the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance paved the way to a two-party coalition government, and saved the CDU/CSU from a three-way coalition.
German coalition talks with SPD have begun, CDU/CSU's Merz confirms
Speaking before a parliamentary party meeting, Fredrich Merz has just confirmed that the coalition talks with the SPD over forming the next German government “have begun.”
“I cannot say anything about the content of the talks today, because it is far too early for that. But I assume we will intensify them in the next few days,” he said.
Merz will lead the talks together with CSU leader Markus Söder.
He stressed the new government would face “urgent” issues, and that is why he felt it was important to “enter into talks quickly.”
He once again repeated his three priorities – foreign and security policy, migration, and the economy – and intent to form the government by Easter, that is 20 April.
Germany's Scholz met with election winner Merz
Meanwhile back in Germany, outgoing chancellor Olaf Scholz has met earlier today with his most likely successor, Friedrich Merz.
The German weekly Der Spiegel reported that the pair spoke for about 90 minutes, probably mostly about the transition phase between the current and the next government, but we don’t much more.
Merz is expected to arrive at a CDU/CSU meeting fairly soon, and so we may get to hear from him – if so, I will bring you all the key lines.
For example, regular readers of our Europe Live blog will know that Denmark announced its plans to increase defence spending by 50 bn kroner ($7bn) just last week, which is expected to bring overall spend to 3.2% GDP.
In a clear signal of the urgency, Danish prime minister Mette Frederiksen said last week that “there is one message for the chief of defence: Buy, buy, buy.”
Our Nordic correspondent Miranda Bryant covered the plan in detail:
As Reuters noted, Denmark’s defence spending was at just 1.4% in 2022, before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Updated
Starmer’s announcement of 2.5% GDP defence spend by 2027 would put the UK as the seventh highest spender (as a % of GDP) within Nato, according to 2024 figures collated by Nato and published by the British parliament.
Worth noting, however, that these figures seem to be slightly out of date, given rapid developments across the continent and a number of defence spending decisions made in recent months.
Polish leaders, for example, have been talking over the last week about the country spending 4.7% of GDP on defence, the highest % in the alliance.
Updated
UK to raise defence spend to 2.5% from 2027, with 3% target in next parliament
Starmer now talks about plans to “begin the biggest sustained increase in defence spending since the end of the cold war,” hoping to reach 2.5% (or 2.6% when counting new funding for intelligence and security services) GDP in 2027.
He wants to go beyond to 3% by the end of next parliament, so by 2033/34 at the latest.
Updated
We must 'reject false choice' between allies, Starmer says, as he talks of US importance for Britain
We must reject any false choice between our allies, between one side of the Atlantic or the other. That is against our history, country, and party because it’s against our fundamental national interest.
The US is our most important bilateral alliance. It straddles everything from nuclear technology to Nato to Five Eyes, Aukus, and beyond.
So this week when I meet President Trump, I will be clear. I want this relationship to go from strength to strength.
His comments strike a notably different tone to those of likely next German chancellor Friedrich Merz, who talked about the importance of reaching European independence on defence in his first comments after this Sunday’s election.
'We must stand by Ukraine,' UK's Starmer says
UK prime minister Starmer is speaking now and reminds lawmakers of the UK’s role within Nato.
As a young man, I vividly remember the Berlin Wall coming down. It felt as if we were casting off the shackles of history, a continent united by freedom and democracy.
If you had told me then that in my lifetime, we would see Russian tanks rolling into European cities again, I would not have believed you.
Yet here we are in a world where everything has changed, because three years ago, that is exactly what happened.
He goes on:
We must stand by Ukraine, because if we do not achieve a lasting peace, then … the threats to our security, they will only grow.
You can follow the latest of his proposals for UK defence spending on our UK blog below, but I will bring you some key lines on European defence, too.
Tusk's comments on London summit - video
The London summit is understood to be still in planning and would serve as a forum for European leaders to get debriefed on both Macron and Starmer’s conversations with Trump during their respective visits to the White House and to consider implications for European and Ukrainian security.
It so happens that Starmer is due to speak in UK parliament in the next half hour, so we could get an official confirmation of what Tusk said.
Updated
Poland's Tusk hints at London summit on defence on Sunday
Speaking alongside Costa, Polish prime minister Donald Tusk dropped a hint that there are plans for European leaders to meet in London this Sunday to discuss defence and security issues.
Here is what he said:
I hope that this greater [defence] mobilisation of Europe, of member states and Europe more broadly, will become a fact.
[Before meeting at the next European Council,] we will be in London on Sunday, together with our British friends and a group of leaders, to talk about these joint plans on defence.
It would make sense at the end of a week in which both Macron and Starmer meet Trump in Washington. One to watch.
Updated
EU’s António Costa is in Warsaw today, where he just held a press conference with the Polish prime minister Donald Tusk.
He said that the European Commission “is coming with a package of proposals to strengthen defence capabilities of Europe,” and leaders will discuss them at the next week’s special European Council.
“Russia is a threat, not only in Ukraine, but for European security as a whole, especially on the Eastern border, in Poland, the Baltics, Romania, the eastern flank of the EU,” he said.
He also added that EU leaders will talk how to support Ukraine “in war and in future peace negotiations.”
Costa is off to Budapest next, where he is likely to hear a very different take on this.
EU leaders to get debrief on Macron's visit on Wednesday
European Council president António Costa said he called a videoconference of EU member states for Wednesday to get a debrief from the French president, Emmanuel Macron, after his White House visit on Monday.
Here is what he said:
To prepare for the Special European Council on 6 March, I am organizing a videoconference of the members of the @EUCouncil, tomorrow morning, to hear a debriefing from President @EmmanuelMacron on his recent visit to Washington DC.
But, but, but… before we even get to the new Bundestag in late March, there is some plotting under way to change the country’s constitutional debt brake in this parliament before it finishes its term.
Once the new parliament gets in, two opposition parties – the far-right AfD and the far-left Die Linke – will have a blocking majority for constitutional changes and are unlikely to be willing to agree to fund further defence spend this way.
So Friedrich Merz thinking about striking a deal with the SPD and the Greens to relax the rules in the last weeks of the current parliament.
He said yesterday he would hold exploratory chats with both parties to see if they can find a way to make it happen.
Defence minister Boris Pistorius, from the SPD, appears to be keen, telling Bild that the suggestion “shows a sense of responsibility,” but you won’t be surprised that others – including the AfD – are furious about the idea.
One more issue to talk about over the next few weeks!
Updated
Merz needs to change his tone, SPD co-chair warns
And if you think it’s all going to be oh-so-easy in the coalition talks, because the two parties worked together in the past, think again.
SPD’s co-leader Lars Klingbeil, who is expected to lead his side in coalition talks, was on the ZDF last night.
He said the party has “never ducked away” from responsibility for the country, but insisted that the responsibility for forming the new government lies with CDU/CSU’s presumed chancellor, Friedrich Merz.
In a warning shot, he also said that “it is no secret that Friedrich Merz has deepened the rift with the SPD in recent weeks,” pointing to his controversial migration motion passed with the far-right Alternative für Deutschland.
“The expectation is clear that Merz will change his course and his tone significantly,” he said.
“He will make offers about what the future of this country could look like, and we have clear expectations in this regard,” he asserted.
German business wants cuts in bureaucracy, faster approval, lower taxes - survey
German companies expect from the next government drastic cuts in bureaucracy, faster and more efficient approvals, noticeable relief in taxes and lower electricity costs, the DIHK Chamber of Commerce and Industry said on Tuesday.
Reuters reported that almost 90% of the 4,000 companies surveyed said they have seen a deterioration in the business conditions in Germany over the past four years.
“The new federal government must urgently tackle this now,” DIHK president Peter Adrian said in the presentation of the corporate barometer for the election. “A lot of trust has been destroyed in the past.”
According to the DIHK study, 95% of companies consider the reduction of bureaucratic hurdles to be one of the most important tasks of the coming government.
“Politics must credibly declare war on bureaucracy,” Adrian said, adding that for every new obligation, at least two existing ones should be eliminated, “better even three.”
Pope 'slept well, all night,' Vatican says
Pope Francis continues his recovery from pneumonia in a Rome hospital, with Vatican telling us this morning in a one-sentence update that “the pope slept well, all night.”
The 88-year-old was admitted to Gemelli hospital on 14 February, and his condition remains critical – despite some encouraging reports about a “slight improvement” on Monday night.
AP reports that thousands of people have gathered in St. Peter’s Square last night to pray for the pope.
Still, the mood was mostly grim in the monumental square on Monday evening, with many understanding they may be in Rome for Francis’ final days. Crowds sat under umbrellas on folding chairs or stood by the vast colonnades as they reflected fondly on the pontiff’s legacy.
Updated
European charm offensive on Ukraine - what you need to know
If you missed the start of the European charm offensive in Washington last night, here is all you need to know:
Emmanuel Macron, the French president, has warned Donald Trump against a “surrender” of Ukraine as the US president said Russia’s leader Vladimir Putin “wants to make a deal” that could include European peacekeepers.
Mixing flattery and firmness, the French president sought to heal the transatlantic schism over Ukraine, giving Keir Starmer a tough act to follow on Thursday.
The United Nations general assembly has backed a resolution drafted by Ukraine and the European Union condemning Russia on the third anniversary of its full-scale invasion. The United States, Russia, Belarus and North Korea all voted against the resolution underlining an extraordinary shift in US policy since the US president’s election.
These developments come as European allies rush to showcase extra support for Kyiv just after the third anniversary of the war.
For live updates on Ukraine, follow our special live blog here:
Morning opening: No more GroKo
Deutsche Presse-Agentur, the German news agency, has ruled that the new expected coalition between the conservative CDU/CSU union and the Social Democratic party will no longer qualify as a “grand coalition”, or GroKo, as it was known in Angela Merkel years.
This is to account for the reality that the two are no longer the largest parties in the new Bundestag – with the far-right Alternative für Deutschland now the second largest, ahead of the SPD, after the elections on Sunday.
So, the hunt is on for a new name. Building on a slightly unusual tradition of naming coalitions by references to other countries’ flags, first suggestions were to call it “the Albanian coalition” or “the Angolan coalition” (black and red are the colours of the two parties, although in both cases there are some, erm, additional elements on their flags, too), but in more unusual ideas someone said it could be the “Coke Zero” coalition, too. “Real taste and zero calories”. Any other ideas?
As entertaining as it is, finding an informal nickname for the new coalition is probably going to be the least important of their problems.
With parliamentary party groups meeting for the first time since election today, the countdown to Easter, when chancellor-in-waiting Friedrich Merz said he would want to have his government in place by, starts now.
We will bring you the latest here.
It’s Tuesday, 25 February 2025, and this is Europe live. It’s Jakub Krupa here.
Good morning.
