We’re entering the final stages of the men’s college basketball transfer portal window, with only a week to go before the portal closes on April 22. A significant portion of the top players is already off the board. That said, there should be a slow trickle of new names to come in the final days, a mix of players realizing their roles aren’t what they expected initially after seeing portal commitments come in and some being tempted by significant tampering efforts to move for more money than they initially agreed to return for. As we’ve seen already in the case of BYU’s move to flip Robert Wright III from Baylor, there’s little stopping players (even those who’ve signed contracts to return) from reneging on initial agreements to pursue better deals elsewhere. It won’t be a surprise if there are a few more similar situations to the Wright deal in the portal’s final few days.
Here’s a notebook on the latest Sports Illustrated is hearing in the portal, from big-picture narratives to impact commitments that will shape the 2025–26 season.
Top Talents Largely Off Board
Based on EvanMiya.com’s transfer rankings, just 19 of the top 100 players to enter the portal are uncommitted and don’t need a waiver for additional eligibility. That includes a handful of recent commitments, including Indiana beating Kentucky for Sam Houston State transfer Lamar Wilkerson and Texas Tech snagging Washington State transfer LeJuan Watts.
Of those 19, a handful are players whose recruitments are likely to drag out as they also work through the NBA pre-draft process. The two biggest examples of this: Texas Tech’s Darrion Williams and St. John’s RJ Luis Jr. Both Williams and Luis are projected draft picks should they stay in the NBA draft, but could use the massive NIL deals they are expected to command in college (likely north of $3 million each) as leverage to receive draft day promises from NBA teams for guaranteed contracts and potentially multiple guaranteed years. Williams and Luis could make commitments prior to next month’s NBA draft combine, just as Michigan commit Yaxel Lendeborg did, or they could wait things out until after the NBA dust settles as most players have done in prior years.
Either way, the pool has shrunk to the point where high-major programs that have several spots left to fill have begun scrambling for additional options or are working their way back down the list of players they initially had held off on pursuing. And with that, agents representing players who otherwise might be on the fringes of earning a high-major roster spot are now in some cases holding off to maximize their leverage. Every year, there are a handful of players who capitalize on the desperation late in the market, and agents I’ve spoken to are happy to have their clients wait out the market as much as possible until that desperation hits. That’s a dangerous game, however, as doing so often limits the ability to be selective based on fit.
With options in the portal dwindling, the international market has heated up as an alternative, particularly in positions that are especially depleted in the portal like point guard and center. Expect a slew of high-level commitments coming over from European leagues in the coming weeks. You’ll see a mix of younger top prospects hoping to use college as a springboard to the NBA the way Egor Demin and Kasparas Jakucionis used it this year and older players (many of whom have been playing rotation minutes in high-level pro leagues) hunting a bigger payday in college than they can get in Europe.
Roster Construction Philosophies Vary
The pending House settlement’s changes to how rosters will be constructed has had a significant impact on the portal. Teams can roster 15 players going forward, but all 15 can be on scholarship instead of the old 13-scholarship cap. That said, just because all 15 may receive a scholarship doesn’t mean staffs will allocate precious revenue share and NIL dollars to players at the back end of their rosters. Even the biggest budgets nationally, believed to be just north of $10 million for a handful of top-tier programs, can vanish quickly if spread around 12 to 15 players. Some will operate with a traditional 12 to 13 players and allow their walk-ons to stay on the team in those final few roster spots; others may take it even further and focus all their resources to nine or 10 players and backfill the remaining roster spots with dart throws. You’ll see very few teams fill all 15 roster spots with players talented enough to make a real impact that season, both for budgetary and also chemistry reasons.
One high-major staff I spoke to this week has spent its entire budget on nine players and is now looking for two to three freshmen or transfers who’d come for nothing other than a scholarship, which are extremely hard to find in this day and age. Some staffs have saved a few dollars here and there for those end-of-bench filler pieces, referred to by some GMs and personnel staffers as “minimum contracts” that often end up in the $100,000 range to woo freshmen or junior-college players who’ll largely serve as developmental pieces and practice bodies. But those end-of-bench value pieces can sometimes end up becoming critical role players after injuries or missed evaluations blow up projected rotations, so keep an eye on those moves around the margins.
Big picture though, there has been an emphasis in conversations with several top assistants and GMs on avoiding overpaying for players projected to come off the bench. One program I spoke to earlier this cycle said they wanted to ensure they spent 75% of their overall budget on their projected starting five after spreading their dollars around far too much the previous year, and that general framework is something that has been echoed in a number of conversations in recent days and weeks. The thinking: Spending $500,000 each on two mediocre wings is less efficient than betting big on a $700,000 or $800,000 potential high-level starter and using a developmental piece in the $200,000 range behind them.
Notable Recent Commitments
A big early test for new Indiana coach Darian DeVries was the battle for Lamar Wilkerson, an elite shooter from Sam Houston State who had earned comparisons to Tennessee guard Chaz Lanier. DeVries went toe-to-toe with Kentucky and won out in the end, the biggest win yet for DeVries as he rebuilds the Hoosiers. There’s plenty of work still to be done here with just five (six if you count waiver-seeking Luke Goode) players on the roster, but Wilkerson should be an impact scorer on the wing to play next to DeVries’s son, Tucker. Davidson transfer Reed Bailey was also a nice add on the wing.
North Carolina has done most of its work to retool in a critical spring for the future of Hubert Davis in Chapel Hill, most recently bringing a local kid in Jarin Stevenson home after two years at Alabama. Stevenson has immense potential but never quite found his stride in Tuscaloosa. Right now, he profiles as UNC’s starting power forward next to Arizona transfer Henri Veesaar. The other big add of late at Carolina is former Colorado State guard Kyan Evans, whom Carolina invested heavily in after being involved with several other top guards. Evans is more of a natural combo guard than true point guard, but he made a ton of big shots for CSU during its late-season run to make the NCAA tournament. How he takes to being a more traditional table-setter for the Heels could determine the fate of next season in Chapel Hill.
As far as fit goes, there might not be a better match than Iowa and Brendan Hausen. Hausen was one of the top three-point shooters in the portal, making 90 threes at a 39% clip for Kansas State this season. He’ll enter a three-point friendly system at Iowa with an elite point guard to set the table for him in Bennett Stirtz. The Hawkeyes’ roster is still in flux, with Robert Morris transfer Alvaro Folgueiras a top target, but Hausen was a big win.
Many of the top programs in the country were involved, but SMU won out in the Jaron Pierre Jr. sweepstakes. I’m a bit more skeptical of Pierre’s ability to translate up to the elite levels of college basketball than others are, but there’s no doubt he possesses a great deal of talent on the offensive end as a wing creator. The Mustangs should have NCAA tournament aspirations after getting this one done.
Texas Tech coach Grant McCasland increasingly looks like one of the top roster-builders in the country. He retained a pair of stars in JT Toppin (for a reported $4 million NIL package) and Christian Anderson, and has now gone to work supplementing with high-level role players. LeJuan Watts from Washington State is a capable replacement for Williams as a physical wing who can facilitate, while Tyeree Bryan and Donovan Atwell are elite floor-spacers with good size on the wing.
This article was originally published on www.si.com as Men’s Basketball Transfer Portal: With One Week to Go, How the 2025–26 Season Is Shaping Up.
