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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
World
Lili Bayer in Paris

Marine Le Pen says National Rally have ‘serious chance’ for absolute majority despite polls – as it happened

Marine Le Pen National Rally (Event) Europe CNews
Marine Le Pen is interviewed by Apolline de Malherbe.
Marine Le Pen is interviewed by Apolline de Malherbe. Photograph: Domine Jerome/ABACA/REX/Shutterstock

Summary of the day

  • As the French campaign comes to a close ahead of Sunday’s second round of elections, opinion polls showed the far right winning fewer seats than originally projected, with the withdrawal of many candidates in three-way races impacting estimates.

  • The latest Ifop-Fiducial poll put the National Rally and its allies at 170-210 seats. Ipsos put them at 175-205 seats.

  • The National Rally’s Jordan Bardella called on supporters to mobilise to vote and not be intimidated. Marine Le Pen also urged supporters to go to the polls and insisted the party could still win an absolute majority.

  • The French prime minister, Gabriel Attal, urged all political parties to call for calm on a tense last day of campaigning.

  • The interior minister, Gérald Darmanin, said that “this campaign is short and yet we already have 51 candidates, substitutes and activists who have been physically assaulted.”

  • The Guardian spoke with voters and candidates in the Paris area about their experience with the campaign. Some of the voters expressed frustration with the “mess” of the political status quo.

French PM urges calm after assaults in run-up to second round vote

The French prime minister, Gabriel Attal, has urged all political parties to call for calm on a tense last day of campaigning for a snap election in which the far-right hopes to win a majority in parliament.

“Violence and intimidation have no place in our society,” Attal wrote in a social media post.

The interior minister, Gérald Darmanin, said: “This campaign is short and yet we already have 51 candidates, substitutes and activists who have been physically assaulted.”

Darmanin told BFMTV that some of the assaults had been extremely serious and led to people being admitted to hospital. He said more than 30 arrests had been made across France and denounced what he called “a climate of great violence towards politics and all that it represents”.

Read the full story here.

Bardella calls for mobilisation ahead of Sunday's vote

In a social media post, the far right National Rally’s Jordan Bardella called on supporters to mobilise to vote.

“This Sunday, don’t let victory be stolen from you, don’t let yourselves be intimidated,” he said.

‘“Make room for alternation and change. I call on you to mobilise. Give us an absolute majority to govern and restore France,” he added.

Updated

National Rally at 170-210 seats: Fiducial poll

And here’s another poll.

Updated

In Paris’ first constituency, I meet Raphaël Kempf, a candidate for the New Popular Front representing the hard left France Unbowed, as he was speaking with voters outside a school.

In the second round, he is facing Sylvain Maillard, representing Together, an alliance of Macron allies.

“We’re in a campaign which is very tough,” Kempf said.

“We’re fighting for equality, for justice, for environment – all the things that we think the Macron party didn’t do,” he said, accusing the president’s allies of being the “engine” driving the far right’s rising popularity. He also argued Macron’s allies have echoed far right ideas.

“We understand that the far right is going so far because Macron left forgotten maybe all of the issues on social justice and equality and tax equality.”

Kempf also addressed rivals’ accusations of anti-Semitism, rejecting them and insisting: “I’ve always been fighting against racism, islamophobia, anti-Semitism.”

French Jewish communities and prominent figures across the political spectrum have raised concerns about comments from top figures in France Unbowed which they have described as anti-Semitic.

Updated

In Boulogne-Billancourt, a Paris suburb, I meet Pauline Rapilly Ferniot, a 28-year old member of the Ecologists and candidate for the New Popular Front who is facing Macron ally Stéphane Séjourné in the second round on Sunday.

In the first round, Séjourné took 46%, while Rapilly Ferniot took 21%.

Sitting outside a local coffee shop, the green candidate said that while the area tends to lean toward the traditional right, she has noticed a spike in engagement from left wing activists during this campaign.

“The national atmosphere made a lot of people come into the campaign – more than any campaign before,” she said.

In the last election, she said she had about 50 activists campaigning. Now, she had about 280.

“This is something that happened everywhere in France,” she said, speaking of the activists’ mobilisation.

In her area, she noted, “we got a lot of new people, even if there is no far right risk, people wanted to be involved in this huge union of resistance.”

Updated

National Rally at 175-205 seats: Ipsos

A new Ipsos poll is out.

Far right National Rally and its allies: 175-205 seats

Left wing New Popular Front: 145-175

Macron’s allies: 118-148

Updated

Speaking on TF1 today, the French prime minister, Gabriel Attal, argued that the far right National Rally’s policy program would lead to violence – and that the party’s program would also be a catastrophe for the country’s economy.

Over 50 people assaulted during election campaign, minister says

More than 50 politicians and campaigners have been assaulted during the French election campaign, Gerald Darmanin, the interior minister, told BFMTV, AFP reported.

“This campaign is short and yet we already have 51 candidates, substitutes and activists who have been physically assaulted,” he said.

More than 30 people have been arrested, according to the minister, including people from far-right and far-left groups.

As Sunday’s election nears and politicians rush to mobilise their supporters, candidates are trying to convince voters that they can win.

Aurélien Le Coq, from the hard left France Unbowed, wrote that “the New Popular Front can govern.”

'Since Bardella arrived, it’s changed', says National Rally voter

At a newspaper stand in central Paris, not far from the Eiffel Tower, I chat with the cashier, Jean-Luc, who cast his vote for the far-right National Rally.

I asked him why he’s a fan – and he said he didn’t like the original National Front – and isn’t a fan of Marine Le Pen, either.

What made a difference for Jean-Luc is Jordan Bardella, the National Rally’s 28-year-old leader.

“The National Front was not good – Le Pen, the father, was bad,” he said.

“Since Mr. Bardella arrived, it’s changed. Even Marine Le Pen isn’t excellent,” he said.

“The others are too aggressive – Bardella not at all,” he added.

Updated

Far right at 205-230 seats: Les Echos poll

And here’s another new poll, conducted for Les Echos.

This poll puts the far right National Rally at between 205 and 230 seats.

Updated

Here’s a look at the polling numbers in the 6th district of Calvados, where a former prime minister, Élisabeth Borne, is competing against far right candidate Nicolas Calbrix.

An Ifop study found that Borne would take 54% in the second round, compared to 46% for Calbrix.

Meanwhile, prep is ongoing for the upcoming Paris olympics.

There’s one phrase I’ve heard repeated among voters I spoke with in Paris this morning:

“It’s a mess.”

Here is the latest projection from Ifop for France’s 577-member national assembly:

Far right National Rally: 210-240

Left wing New Popular Front: 170-200

Macron’s allies: 95-125

'It's always the same thing': Disenchantment on the metro

At another Paris metro stop, I sit next to a middle-aged woman who asked that her name not be published.

Asked about Sunday’s election, she said: “honestly, I have no trust at all. It’s always the same thing, it’s always the same debates.”

But asked if she will go vote she said “yes,” adding however that “honestly I don’t feel like voting.”

She did say she has a preference: “not the extremes, not the right, the middle.”

Updated

On the metro: A voter hoping for stability

I’m now at a metro station in central Paris talking to commuters about how they are feeling about the election.

As she was waiting to board a train, one voter, Fatima, she is hoping the extremes won’t do well.

“I will go vote, that’s for sure – I think it’s an obligation,” she said.

She said she hopes the situation in France will be stabilised.

“I hope the extremes won’t pass,” she said.

“We try to vote for the least worst,” she added, saying that everything has been done in a hurry and there was “surprise” about this election.

Updated

National Rally would fail to get absolute majority: Elabe poll

Here’s another poll by Elabe for BFMTV and La Tribune Dimanche, published this morning. As a reminder, 289 seats are required for an absolute majority in the national assembly.

Far right National Rally: 200-230

Left wing New Popular Front: 165-190

Macron’s allies: 120-140

Serious chance for absolute majority, Marine Le Pen argues

It’s Friday morning, and the campaign is soon reaching its conclusion.

The far right National Rally’s Marine Le Pen appeared on Cnews – a channel critics have labelled the “French Fox News” – to urge supporters to go to the polls on Sunday.

“We have a serious chance of having an absolute majority in the national assembly,” she said.

Polling has shown, however, that the most likely scenario on Sunday is that National Rally will not win an absolute majority of seats.

Le Pen told viewers that the seats polling is not an exact science.

Welcome to the Paris blog

Good morning and welcome back to the Europe blog, coming to you today from Paris.

With the second round of the French legislative election just days away, we will be delving into the latest on the campaign trail.

Send comments and tips to lili.bayer@theguardian.com.

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