Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro claimed victory in the country's consequential elections on Sunday. And while the situation remains fluid amid a lack of transparent data and several countries' refusal to recognize the results, the government signaling its intent to remain in power could spark yet another migratory wave from the country.
Venezuela's ongoing crisis has pushed more than 7.7 million people to leave their homes over the past decade, something the U.N.'s refugee agency has described as the largest exodus in Latin America's recent history. Most Venezuelan migrants have settled elsewhere in Latin America and the Caribbean, but many have also set their sights in the U.S.
The Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community states that political repression and lack of economic opportunities will continue to drive Venezuelan emigration. And studies are starting to show it.
A nationwide poll conducted in April by the Venezuela based research firm Delphos indicated that about a quarter of the people in Venezuela were thinking about emigrating if Maduro remained in power after the elections. Of those, about 47% said a win by the opposition would make them stay, but roughly the same amount indicated that an improved economy would keep them in their home country.
Similarly, opposition leader Maria Corina Machado, who was banned from running in the elections, had warned about irregularities prior to the election and its ripple effects in immigration.
"Nobody benefits from Venezuela collapsing and descending into total chaos, which is what will happen if Maduro doesn't hold the election," Machado told the Miami Herald. "Failure to hold the election could result in an additional one to two million new [Venezuelan] migrants over the next few months."
"The migration will only slow down and reverse itself the day when Venezuelans feel they have a future in their country," she continued. "But that will only happen when we kick Maduro and this regime out of power."
Venezuelans were the second largest group of migrants apprehended by U.S. Customs and Border Patrol in 2023, totaling over 260,000 encounters, a fivefold increase from 2020 where there were less than 50,000, putting pressure on the White House to stem the flow.
These results may also have a direct effect on the upcoming U.S. elections, as the Democratic administration faces an uncertain election in November and migration policies are at the forefront of the race, CNN explains.
The Biden administration was critical in helping the elections happen, though Venezuela reportedly halted negotiations between the two countries and did not meet the requirements for a free and fair elections. But as both countries were set for elections this year, now the focus turns to November, to potentially make a difference in Venezuelan democracy.
"If the Biden administration remains in power, I believe (bilateral) negotiations will continue," Laura Dib, a Venezuela expert in Washington said. "Now, if there's a Trump administration, most likely it's just conducting business... without much regard on what happens in terms of democracy and human rights."
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