The Bureau of Meteorology has just released its outlook for the severe weather season. So what will your summer look like?
Catch up on our Q&A live blog where we unpacked the weather outlook.
Key events
Live updates
By Jessica Riga
We'll wrap things up here
Thank you for joining myself and Kate this afternoon and for sending in your questions as we unpacked what BOM's severe weather outlook means for you.
You can continue to stay up to date with ABC News and ABC Emergency, and on the ABC News app.
By Kate Doyle
Early start to the wet season likely
What does Darwin have in store this Wet season? We've already had more rain and storms in September and October than usual. Are we in for a very wet and wild Wet season?
- Mel
Hey Mel,
An early start to the wet is likely and the northern cyclone region, which includes Darwin, has a 61% chance of more than the average three tropical cyclones this year.
By Kate Doyle
How is South East Queensland looking?
How's SEQ going to be?
- Izzy
Seriously though, the ground is sodden and the outlook is for above average rain and increased risk of cyclones.
Cyclones hitting down into SEQ is unusual but not impossible.
The Gold Coast had a direct hit from a cyclone back in the 50s, and as the climate warms tropical cyclones are pushing further south.
Even ex-tropical cyclones pack a punch. Think Debbie back in 2017 or the infamous Cyclone Wanda that hung over Brisbane and caused the 1974 floods.
We are all hoping for the best but this would be a good time to review your flood plan.
The Brisbane City Council's flood map is a good place to start.
By Jessica Riga
What's in store for Queensland?
What about Queensland, any severe weather? Next year or the rest of this year.
- GiGi
Hey Gigi,
The outlook warns of an increased risk of widespread flooding for eastern and northern Australia and an increased risk of an above average number of tropical cyclones and tropical lows.
In terms of high tides, the outlook warns those in coastal regions that unusually high tides are expected on January 23, 2023 for the New South Wales and southern Queensland coasts.
It gives the same warning for February 20 on northern Queensland coasts, including in the Torres Strait.
In terms of storms, the outlook is suggesting a normal risk of thunderstorms this season, which means the usual barrage of storms for northern New South Wales and south-east Queensland.
By Jessica Riga
How do you prepare for a thunderstorm asthma event?
A thunderstorm asthma event occurs when warm days are followed by storms, and can particularly affect people who suffer from hayfever.
Speaking to Virginia Trioli on Mornings, Director of Research at the Royal Melbourne Hospital, Professor Jo Douglass, said face masks are one way people can protect themselves.
"Stay out of the storm front, stay inside, close the windows, but then yes, an N95 would also be helpful," she said.
By Kate Doyle
What's the bushfire risk?
Hi. I am wondering where you think has the highest risk of bushfires this summer? Is there anything even left to burn? I heard maybe some grassfires in SA. Love to hear your thoughts. Thanks, Matt.
- Matt D
Hey Matt,
Let's be honest, with so much of the east so sodden the chance of big forest fires like we saw in 2019/2020 is slim.
The spring fire outlook suggested the regions that suffered though the worst of the fires in 2019/2020 had below-normal fire potential this spring.
The only regions looking at heightened risk were Central Australia and parts of northern WA.
Of course, even in a normal year there is a risk of fire. Southern Australia is one of the most bushfire prone regions in the world. All the rain over the last few years means vegetation levels are high and it won't take many dry days in a row for grasses to dry out. Today's severe weather outlook warns of grass fires, especially for those on the urban fringe.
By Kate Doyle
Check the roads
planning to cross by road from Adelaide to Hervey Bay and stay there for 3 months. Any flooding or road closures expected?
- Andrew
Hey Andrew,
Yes.
I would expect lots, depending on when you head out and which way you are going of course.
Road closure info managed by the states:
Not going direct?
Long way..
Make it a proper holiday...
By Jessica Riga
Let's talk about thunderstorm asthma
Do you know if we're likely to get a severe asthma event in Melbourne before Christmas? I think I should get an extra ventolin spray if so. Also will we be affected more if we get a COVID infection from somewhere? Thanks very much for your blog.
- Merrowyn
Hi Merrowyn, thanks for your question.
BOM's forecast does warn of a heightened potential for thunderstorm asthma, especially if conditions are dry late in spring and for early summer, particularly in parts of Victoria.
So while we don't have a more specific time frame, your comment about getting prepared now sounds like a great idea.
By Kate Doyle
WA is looking fairly neutral
Hi A lot of the current forecasts relate to the Eastern Coast weather predictions. However what can we expect for Perth’s weather over the next few months? Will we be subjected to Heatwaves and the possibility of Bushfire’s over Summer? Thanks Lynne
- Lynne
Hey all the folks asking about WA,
No you are not forgotten, it is just that your weather situation isn't looking quite as precariously sodden at the moment.
The rainfall outlook for WA over the next three months is pretty neutral. Southern WA doesn't get much of an impact from the climate drivers churning things up this year so it is looking fairly normal.
There is a pretty good chance of more cyclones than normal. With Seroja not long ago a good reminder that cyclones can bring a punch well south.
By Kate Doyle
Normal risk of storms still means hail
What's the risk of large hailstones in Eastern Australia compared with previous years?
- Rex
Hey Rex,
The outlook suggests there is a normal risk of thunderstorms this season. But a normal year means plenty of hail, especially for northern NSW and SEQ.
By Kate Doyle
South Australia = Australia's middle child
Hello, Is there any information on how this affects South Australia in general and Adelaide in particular? Thanks
- Often overlooked
Hey Often Overlooked,
As a native South Australian I concur that the centre state is shamefully neglected!
Most of SA's rain comes from the westerlies that should stream through over winter. As the high-pressure systems move down, SA usually gets hot and dry summers.
There is some influence from the negative Indian Ocean Dipole and La Niña climate drivers working behind the scenes at the moment but it is not expected to be as wet in SA as further east.
This the outlook for November to January rainfall:
... bearing in mind normal conditions in SA are less than the eastern and northern siblings.
There is always a chance that a rogue big rain event could come though. I'm certainly keeping an eye on Lake Eyre this summer.
By Jessica Riga
How do I prepare for a flood?
BOM's outlook warns of an increased risk of widespread flooding for eastern and northern Australia and an increased risk of an above-average number of tropical cyclones and tropical lows.
You might not have much warning, so if you live in an area that could be affected by a flood it's important to make preparations.
We've put together a list of things you should do to get ready in case the worst happens, which you can check out here (and it's probably worth bookmarking for later).
By Jessica Riga
Rain but heatwaves???
Here's an update from our weather reporter Kate Doyle.
Yeah, it might sound counter intuitive but the outlook for this severe weather season is predicting widespread rain as well as increased risk of prolonged heatwaves.
Individual days are not likely to be as hot as in a normal or dry summer, but prolonged heat events with high overnight temperatures and high humidity will combine to make us hot under the collar this summer.
By Jessica Riga
Got a question about BOM's forecast?
Wondering what's in store for your summer?
Submit your questions and comments to the blog using the blue 'leave a comment' button and we'll answer them here in the blog.
By Jessica Riga
By the way, we're in the third La Niña in row
In case you missed it, last month BOM officially declared we are in the third La Niña in a row.
In the video below, our weather reporter Kate Doyle explains what to expect.
By Jessica Riga
When should we expect this severe weather?
The Bureau of Meteorology says while severe weather can occur at any time of the year, October to April is the peak period for bushfires, heatwaves, flooding, tropical cyclones, and severe thunderstorms in Australia.
Here's meteorologist Jonathan How to help walk us through the forecast.
By Jessica Riga
What does BOM's severe weather outlook signal?
- The outlook warns of an increased risk of widespread flooding for eastern and northern Australia and an increased risk of an above average number of tropical cyclones and tropical lows
- It finds normal bushfire potential in eastern states but an elevated risk of grass fire in southern Australia, and increased risk of prolonged heatwaves in southern areas with higher humidity
- There is a normal risk of severe thunderstorms but a possible increase in risk of thunderstorm asthma events if conditions are dry in late spring and early summer
By Jessica Riga
BOM severe weather outlook signals a summer of cyclones and floods
Well, here we go again.
The Bureau of Meteorology is urging us to prepare for another sodden summer with the release of its severe weather outlook.
So what does it mean for you?
Send us your questions and comments as myself and weather reporter Kate Doyle break down what's in store this summer.
