The Detroit Lions aim to get their first win streak of the 2022 season and the first road win of the Dan Campbell era when they visit the Chicago Bears in Week 10. Despite being underdogs on the road, the 2-6 Lions have the ability to beat the 3-6 Bears.
It will not be easy. Nothing ever is for Detroit, after all. But there are clear paths for how the Lions can beat the Bears and climb out of the NFC North basement thanks to tiebreakers. That’s the sort of progress everyone from fans to owner Sheila Hamp would love to see.
Will it happen? We’ll find out on Sunday. Here are a few keys to a potential Detroit win in Soldier Field.
Get the ball out quickly but not in a hurry
Jared Goff and his ability to attack the Chicago defense will be a major key to the game. It goes beyond the obvious “throw more TDs than INTs” and “don’t take dumb sacks” commands, however.
Goff has to be quick to get the ball out but not impatient or hurried. Those might seem like competing concepts, but they’re actually intricately related.
The last two offenses the Bears played thrived on quick-hitting pass routes. Dak Prescott with Dallas and Miami’s Tua Tagovailoa each did a good job of not holding the ball too long and making anticipatory throws. But they didn’t rush to get it out at the first possible option, and that’s where Goff has been at his worst; defenses have learned how to bait Goff into those tragic too-quick throws.
If Goff can be patient enough to look at that first read, keep his head and then quickly progress to the next-best option based on the pre-snap look, the Lions receivers will be open. Often wide open. It takes a confident, accurate throw from Goff to exploit those holes, because the Bears safeties do close on the ball very well.
Pass rush with discipline
Justin Fields has made some very good defenses and individual defenders look foolish even when they’re attacking him with sound containment principles. Without them? Well, Fields just set the NFL record for rushing yards in a game by a quarterback against Miami — a team that deployed a full-time spy on him most of the game.
Why the success?
Fields is exceptional at finding the escape angle and he’s too fast for linebackers to effectively spy once he’s got an angle. Taking away those angles means not overcommitting on the rush. The ends, primarily rookies Aidan Hutchinson and Josh Paschal, have to be very mindful about getting run around the loop and leaving big escape routes for Fields. While the second-year QB is rapidly improving as an overall passer, he’s still a more dangerous runner than thrower at this point.
The defensive front needs to remind Fields about the pressure. For as elusive as Fields is, he does still take a lot of sacks (33, most in the league) behind a Bears line that is below-average but trending up. Hutchinson, DT Alim McNeill and the front have to finish the pressures they start, or else…
Call better plays on 2nd-and-long
In general, Lions rookie offensive coordinator has been a pretty effective play-caller, especially given all the injuries at receiver and the athletic limitations of Goff at quarterback. But there’s one specific instance where Johnson has to improve quickly, and that’s on second-and-long.
The numbers are bad. When the Lions have second down and six yards or more to go, they’ve been terrible. Detroit has faced 110 of those situations through the first eight games. They’ve converted just 25 of them, and just three of their last 27.
All those controversial fourth-down decisions and plays? They don’t happen if the Lions offense performs better on earlier downs. Interestingly, Chicago’s defense in those situations is a mixed bag. The Bears are really good versus the run on 2nd-and-long but below-average in pass defense. Johnson tends to have Goff throw the ball short of the sticks in those scenarios. It’s an opportunity to take deeper shots.
This is also a pivotal point when the sides are flipped. As poorly as the Lions have been on second-and-long, the Bears offense is truly dreadful; they’ve given up almost as many sacks (12) as first downs they’ve attained via the pass in those situations (14).
