FiveThirtyEight have released their latest forecast for how they think the Premier League is likely to finish. The website uses statistical analysis to tell stories about several different topics, including sport, and more specifically the Premier League.
Based on the season so far and the data that has been presented, Leeds United are expected to build on their back-to-back victories by securing their top-flight status. The Whites are expected to finish on 37 points, three points ahead of 18th place Burnley, who have been predicted to go down alongside Norwich City and Watford.
Jesse Marsch's side have a 23% chance of relegation in comparison to Burnley's 51%, which shows the magnitude of the recent victories, as only two weeks ago, Leeds were more likely to go down than the Clarets according to FiveThirtyEight. Everton are the team most at risk of dropping into the bottom three, as they have been predicted to finish 17th, two points above the bottom three.
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There is now very little chance Brentford or Newcastle United will go down with the former now standing just a 7% chance of relegation, and the latter even less at just 4%. Leeds and the Bees are set to go head-to-head on the final day of the season, which still has the potential to be a crucial game.
Elsewhere in the Premier League, Manchester City are expected to retain their Premier League crown ahead of Liverpool by just two points. Chelsea and Arsenal make up the remainder of the top four, with the Gunners comfortably forecasted to beat Tottenham Hotspur, Manchester United and West Ham to the final Champions League place.
Table in full:
1. Manchester City 91 points
2. Liverpool 89 points
3. Chelsea 80 points
4. Arsenal 71 points
5. Tottenham 67 points
6. Manchester United 63 points
7. West Ham 59 points
8. Wolves 55 points
9. Leicester City 51 points
10. Aston Villa 49 points
11. Crystal Palace 47 points
12. Southampton 45 points
13. Brighton 44 points
14. Newcastle 40 points
15. Brentford 40 points
16. Leeds 37 points
17. Everton 36 points
18. Burnley 34 points
19. Watford 30 points
20. Norwich 24 points
