Estate agents have conceded that house prices in Northern Ireland are likely to fall in the coming months, adding to a malaise which has taken hold in the market in recent weeks.
In the most recent survey by industry body RICS (Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors), a net balance of 13% of agents said they expected prices to slide in the next quarter despite continuing to rise in the three months to October. A majority also said that new buyer enquiries continued to fall in October and that the number of transactions are also likely to ease in the next quarter.
The news comes after strong gains in the Northern Ireland housing market in recent years which has pushed the average price of a property up by 20% since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic. Rising interest rates, in part prompted by October’s mini budget, soaring inflationary pressures and concerns around a slowdown in the global economy have all dented confidence and led to expectations that prices could slide.
Still, a net balance of agents in the RICS survey said prices had climbed in the previous three months, despite the macro environment. In addition, a lack of new supply – a key feature behind the recent gains – is only expected to tighten in the future.
“In Northern Ireland we’re seeing a continued easing in demand, which is unsurprising given the recent mortgage market turbulence and the time of year,” Samuel Dickey, RICS Northern Ireland Residential Property Spokesman, said. “Surveyors didn’t see the same levels of interest in October as we have been seeing throughout this year, which is also linked to limited supply.
“This limited supply is expected to be significant factor in the market for the foreseeable. And whilst demand is lower, we continue to see properties selling relatively well, and asking prices often being met.”
The latest Northern Ireland Quarterly House Price Index from the University of Ulster also said house prices were still growing in the third quarter of the year, but gains have been curtailed. Tellingly, it also reported a sharp fall in the number of transaction in the quarter by some 18%.
It pegged the average price a house in Northern Ireland in the third quarter of the 2022 at nearly £207,000, an increase of 3.3% on the same time last year.
