Morning everyone. Five days in and our first Essential poll of the election campaign shows Labor is nudging ahead of the Coalition although it’s not all good news for Anthony Albanese. Plus, we ask independent MPs how they might vote in a hung parliament – and house prices appear to be on the rise again.
Overseas, the United Nations has made a shocking claim about the Israeli military, Marine Le Pen is barred from office, and Donald Trump suggests the constitution doesn’t bar him at all.
Australia
Rate boost | National home prices hit a new peak for 2025 last month as February’s rate cut reignited buyer demand, according to separate reports from Australia’s leading property analytics companies. The Reserve Bank is expected to hold rates steady when it meets later today.
Exclusive | Labor has ticked ahead of the Coalition on a two-party-plus basis in the first Guardian Essential poll of the election period, but voters scored the PM and Peter Dutton poorly on trust, competence and being out of touch.
Fellowship fears | It will be tough to attract international research talent if prestigious Australian Research Council fellowships are axed under proposed changes, researchers say, with lack of funding making the nation not “match fit” to take on Trump-led uncertainty.
Exclusive | Throwing more money at cheaper childcare fees won’t be enough to help mothers with young children get back to work, new research shows, as lower-income families lose more in benefits and taxes than they gain from working an extra day.
Mother charged | A mother has been charged with attempted murder and will face court in Sydney today via a bedside hearing after she allegedly attacked her three children as they slept.
World
Killed ‘one by one’ | Fifteen Palestinian paramedics and rescue workers, including at least one United Nations employee, were killed by Israeli forces “one by one” and buried in a mass grave eight days ago in southern Gaza, the UN has said.
Le Pen ban | The French far-right leader Marine Le Pen has been barred from running for president in 2027 after a court found her guilty of a vast system of embezzlement of European parliament funds and banned her from running for public office with immediate effect.
Trump ‘contempt’ | Donald Trump’s suggestion that there are “methods” by which he could run for a third term as US president has been met with scorn – but also warnings that he could seriously attempt it, despite a constitutional bar. Republican voters think that Pete Hegseth, the US defense secretary, should resign, according to a poll about the Signal chat leak.
Market turmoil | Stock markets across the world fell heavily on Monday after Donald Trump suggested that new tariffs he is set to announce this week would hit “all countries”. The ASX200 is expected to dip when it opens this morning. But will Trump’s “Liberation Day” turn out to be more hot air than substance?
Accuser in hospital | Virginia Giuffre, a victim of the disgraced US financier Jeffrey Epstein who once alleged she was sexually trafficked to Britain’s Prince Andrew, has said on social media that she has just days to live after a vehicle accident.
Full Story
From the Oscars to Israeli detention: the attack on Hamdan Ballal
What does the attack on an Oscar-winning Palestinian director say about the situation in the West Bank today?
In-depth
With a strong possibility that the election will result in a hung parliament, we have been talking to independent MPs to find who they will support if they are re-elected. As part of our election coverage we are running a Reality Check on key issues: today, we ask whether supermarkets are really gouging us. There are more questions than answers about Peter Dutton’s energy policy. And our latest Anywhere but Canberra interview is with a graduate teacher from western Melbourne who lists Hecs debt, crime and political accountability as his main concerns.
Not the news
With views for his hundreds of YouTube videos running into the millions, grentperez (real name Grant Perez) is an online singing sensation who has turned his versions of classic and contemporary ballads into global stardom. Caitlin Welsh caught up with him at home in western Sydney as he prepares to embark on a US tour.
Sport
Tennis | Novak Djokovic’s defeat in the Miami Open reveals cracks in his game as he tries to keep up with the new generation.
Women’s rugby union | In World Cup year, New Zealand’s Ruby Tui tells our interviewer Donald McRae about overcoming a traumatic childhood to reach the top of the game.
Basketball | Five players and two coaches were ejected after a fight broke out in the second quarter of the Minnesota Timberwolves’ victory over the Detroit Pistons – with the most tech fouls of any game for 20 years.
Media roundup
The ASX’s “$42bn wipeout” marks its worst start to a year since the Covid pandemic, the Australian Financial Review says. The Sydney Morning Herald reports from outback Queensland where a year’s worth of rain has fallen in a few days, creating a huge “inland sea”. A damning review panel says the planned new Hobart stadium would burden Tasmania with huge debts, the Mercury laments. The Herald Sun celebrates the life of former AFL player Andrew Krakouer who has died aged 42.
What’s happening today
Economy | The Reserve Bank announces its latest decision on the cash rate at 2.30pm.
Housing | The National Housing Solutions Summit run by the Property Council takes place in Melbourne.
Canberra | Malcolm Turnbull addresses the National Press Club.
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Brain teaser
And finally, here are the Guardian’s crosswords to keep you entertained throughout the day. Until tomorrow.
