Taking a quarterback with the No. 1 overall pick of the draft is sometimes tricky but usually not complicated. Teams with that pick have usually earned it, with subpar — or just plain horrid — quarterback play to blame.
When the Jaguars took Trevor Lawrence, their incumbent starter was Gardner Minshew. When the Bengals took Joe Burrow, they had 32-year-old Andy Dalton coming off the worst season of his career. Even the Cardinals taking Kyler Murray one year after drafting Josh Rosen 10th overall wasn’t a big reach — Rosen had the worst passer rating in the NFL as a rookie. It was the same for the Browns taking Baker Mayfield one year after drafting DeShone Kizer in the second round — Kizer also had the worst passer rating in the NFL as a rookie starter.
And on and on it goes. Josh McCown (Jameis Winston), Case Keenum (Jared Goff), Curtis Painter/Dan Orlovsky (Andrew Luck), Jimmy Clausen (Cam Newton), a 32-year-old, injured Marc Bulger at the end of his career (Sam Bradford). All were incumbent quarterbacks that made the decision easy with a touted quarterback available at the top of the draft.
Bears general manager Ryan Poles has a much more difficult decision to make. Justin Fields clearly making strides in his third NFL season is arguably the best incumbent quarterback for a team with the No. 1 overall pick in the last 20 years.
In 2016, the Titans had the No. 1 overall pick with quarterback Marcus Mariota coming off a promising rookie season — 234.8 yards per game, 19 touchdowns, 10 interceptions for a 91.5 passer rating that ranked 17th in the NFL. Mariota was good enough that Cal’s Jared Goff wasn’t a consideration with the No. 1 overall pick. They traded the pick to the Rams, who took Goff.
Poles’ decision won’t be as easy as the Titans’. Fields, even with his flaws, is a more dynamic quarterback than Mariota. And USC’s Caleb Williams is considered more of a generational-quarterback prospect than Goff.
Poles is in an unusually rare situation for a team with the No. 1 overall pick. With Fields trending up, the Bears are 16th in the NFL in scoring. They are the first team with the No. 1 overall pick that is not in the bottom 10 in scoring since 2004, when the Chargers (4-12) had the top pick with the 16th-ranked scoring offense in the NFL.
Their quarterback was — get ready for it — Drew Brees, who was not yet on the Hall of Fame career arc in his third NFL season. In fact, Fields’ third season in 2023 is statistically superior to Brees’ third season in 2003 — from completion percentage (61.0 to 57.6) to passing yards (201.2 per game to 191.6) to touchdowns/interceptions (15-9 to 11-15) to passer rating (85.8/21st in the NFL to 67.5/28th in the NFL).
The Chargers drafted Ole Miss’ Eli Manning with the No. 1 overall pick, then traded him to the Giants for Philip Rivers when Manning said he would not sign with the Chargers.
Brees beat out Rivers for the starting job in 2004 and made the Pro Bowl with a breakout season. But he suffered a labrum injury in 2005 and took a better offer in free agency from the Saints. The rest is history. Rivers was great — an eight-time Pro Bowl quarterback and likely Hall of Famer. But Brees was better — second all-time passing yards and touchdown passes.
So there is danger facing Poles despite being in an unusually fortuitous situation. There still could be a wrong answer. Sometimes even if you’re right.
2. Poles is on a roll with DJ Moore, Montez Sweat, the No. 1 overall pick, T.J. Edwards and ascending drafted players such as Darnell Wright, Kyler Gordon, Jaquan Brisker, Tyrique Stevenson and Gervon Dexter.
But evaluating quarterbacks is hit-and-miss no matter how good you are. The 49ers — the best thing going in terms of personnel, coaching and player development — whiffed on Trey Lance. Hall of Famer Bill Polian, who chose Peyton Manning over Ryan Leaf, also thought Lamar Jackson should be a wide receiver. Jackson is closing in on his second MVP award.
Poles would not detail his role in the Chiefs’ decision to draft Patrick Mahomes in 2017 (“I’ll give credit to the process,” he said.). With the Bears, he chose Fields over Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud and Anthony Richardson and Will Levis in last year’s draft. And in his most verifiable quarterback evaluation, Poles signed P.J. Walker as the back-up to Fields, but also signed rookie Tyson Bagent, who ended up being the back-up after Walker was cut.
A hit and a miss.
3. The Bears are 5-2 (.714) in the second-half of the NFL season — tied for the sixth-best record in the league in that span, and better than the Packers (5-3), Lions (5-3), Vikings (2-5), Chiefs (3-4) and Eagles (3-4).
If the Bears beat the Packers, their 6-2 record in the second half would be the best in a non-playoff season since 1967 (5-1-1 to finish 7-6-1).
The Bears’ four-game improvement from a 2-7 record in the first half is tied with the Rams (3-6 to 6-1) for the largest in the NFL. The Bears were 0-8 in the second half of the 2022 season.
4. The Bears’ season finale against the Packers is unlikely to be a make-or-break game for Matt Eberflus, with some obvious signs of progress this season — even on offense — pointing to his return in 2024.
And a victory against the Packers figures to seal the deal. No Bears coach has beaten the Packers and gotten fired since Mike Ditka in 1992, when the Bears beat the Packers 30-10 at Lambeau Field before losing eight of their last nine — including a 17-3 loss to the Packers at Soldier Field.
5. One game isn’t likely to make a difference in the quarterback decision, either. But the last thing — or one of the last things — the Bears need is for Jordan Love to outplay Justin Fields on Sunday and remind Bears fans that as much as they love Fields, the Packers have the better quarterback.
Even with Fields’ improvement in six games since returning from a thumb injury, Love has been better in the second half of the season — 68.4% completions, 262 yards per game, 16 touchdowns, one interception and a 109.9 passer rating.
6. The Bears can all but knock the Packers out of the playoffs with a victory Sunday, but their history in similar situations is painful.
In 2013, the Bears lost an NFC North win-or-go-home game against the Packers, 33-28, when Aaron Rodgers threw a 48-yard touchdown pass to Randall Cobb with 38 seconds left in the fourth quarter. In 2010, the Bears had a chance to keep the Packers out of the playoffs in Week 17 at Lambeau and lost 10-3. It was particularly costly — the Packers came back to beat the Bears in the NFC Championship Game at Soldier Field.
6a. The last time the Bears prevented the Packers from making the playoffs was in 1983, in Ditka’s second season, when the Bears won 23-21 at Soldier Field on Bob Thomas’ 22-yard field goal with 10 seconds left in the fourth quarter.
7. The Bears’ resurgence — especially on defense — is a credit to Eberflus. But even an impressive victory against the Falcons showed just how slim his margin for error is. Exposing Fields to a dangerous hit on a sack with 2:00 left in a game the Bears led by 20 points could have been disastrous for the Bears and Eberflus.
Eberflus defended that call after the game, but it likely will be something he doesn’t want Luke Getsy to do again.
8. Quick Hits: The Bears’ 37 points against the Falcons last week were their most against a top-10 scoring defense since 2010 — when they beat the Jets 38-34 at Soldier Field. … The Bears are now 5-1 when scoring 20 or more points since Week 4, after starting 2-8 under Eberflus. … The Bears’ 18 turnovers in the last six games is the most in a six-game stretch since 2012 under Lovie Smith (21).
9. Ex-Bears Player of the Week: Linebacker Roquan Smith had seven tackles and two pass break-ups, including an interception and 30-yard return that set up a touchdown that opened the floodgates in a 56-19 victory over the Dolphins.
Special mention to cornerback Kindle Vildor, who forced a CeeDee Lamb fumble out of bounds for a touchback to save a touchdown in the Lions’ 20-19 loss to the Cowboys at AT&T Stadium. Vildor had five tackles, including one tackle for loss in his first start since last season with the Bears.
10. Bear-ometer: 7-10 — at Packers (L).
