Get all your news in one place.
100’s of premium titles.
One app.
Start reading
Manchester Evening News
Manchester Evening News
Sport
Jacob Findell

Julian Alvarez has proved Pep Guardiola was right to take Man City transfer gamble

When Gabriel Jesus completed his transfer away from the Etihad Stadium this summer, many considered the signing to be a real coup for Arsenal.

The Brazilian never managed to nail down a starting spot in the City team, whether playing through the middle or on the wings, and this inconsistency in playing time and role was never ideal for a player whose performances seemed to largely be a result of the confidence he had in himself at the time.

He had a blistering start to his City career, coming off the bench in the final 10 minutes of a 2-2 draw with Tottenham and scoring the winner, only for it to be ruled out for offside. Jesus followed this by scoring seven goals in his first eight starts for City to finish the 2016/17 season. However, by November 2017, the goals had dried up and Sergio Aguero had regained the starting spot.

READ MORE: Man City ace Phil Foden reveals the 'stupid' reason he missed the 'biggest game of his life'

It now seems as though history might be repeating itself. Jesus had hit five goals and four assists in his first 10 Arsenal appearances, but following that fast start, the goals and assists have slowed down significantly.

Questions familiar to City fans are now beginning to arise after a run of nine games without a goal. In fact, he has now failed to register a goal or an assist in his last eight games in all competitions, the one exception being his two assists in a 5-0 defeat of Nottingham Forest.

City fans will be all too aware of Jesus’ tendency to miss when it looked easier to score, and the Arsenal No.9 has now missed more big chances than any other player in Europe’s top five leagues (11).

Of course, goalscoring is not the be-all and end-all of the modern-day striker, with Jesus also contributing enormously in build-up play and to the defensive side of the game. Undoubtedly, he has been a major part of Arsenal’s success this season, even now whilst he is experiencing a nine-game goal drought.

“When we need runners and players that help a lot with our high intensity and high pressing, he is the best in the world”, said Pep Guardiola of Jesus just last season. Despite this, he was willing to allow him to move on just four months later.

Whilst his lack of goalscoring prowess was not necessarily a problem in a fluid City side where goals can come from anywhere on the pitch, the club clearly thought they could do a lot worse than to bank £45million from selling the Brazilian striker.

The summer saw City bring two strikers through the door: Erling Haaland and the less heralded but certainly extremely talented former River Plate striker Julian Alvarez.

Despite his limited playing time this season, making only three starts and having to make do with multiple cameos at the end of games long since won, Alvarez’s numbers already look favourable in comparison to Jesus, who should be enjoying the rhythm provided by playing every game week in, week out that Alvarez has been denied so far.

Alvarez is scoring 0.75 goals per 90 minutes in the Premier League, whilst Jesus lags behind on 0.4 goals per 90, despite the former boasting a much lower expected goals per 90 minutes figure. This demonstrates that Alvarez is scoring more goals while he is on the field, despite having more difficult chances to convert. Whilst Alvarez outperforms his expected goals tally, Jesus is significantly underperforming on his.

The Argentine is also impressively accurate with his finishing, with exactly 50 per cent of his shots being on target, compared to 44 per cent for Jesus. Of Alvarez’s shots on target this season, 60 per cent have resulted in goals. Meanwhile, Arsenal’s No.9 has scored from just a shade under 20 per cent of his shots on target.

Even on the defensive end, Alvarez is proving to be an excellent signing. He is already outdoing Jesus for tackles and blocks on a per-90-minutes basis, and his work rate on the pitch is plain for everyone to see. Against Fulham last weekend, he chased lost causes and harried Fulham’s defenders, creating chances and generally being a nuisance. His tenacity is reminiscent of Carlos Tevez in his time at the club.

It does then seem that much of the pearl-clutching about City’s summer departures was entirely unnecessary. Jesus leaving has had a negligible impact on the side, and Alvarez’s arrival looks likely to fill Jesus’ niche in the squad perfectly.

City have gone from having no strikers, apart from one who plays on the wing instead of up front, to having two exceptionally talented strikers with entirely different profiles. The options this opens up for Pep Guardiola are limitless, with Alvarez already proving he is capable of playing as a striker, a wide forward or as a second striker.

None of this is to suggest Jesus is not a top-quality player, he is clearly a supremely talented striker whose work rate and technical ability never went unnoticed by City supporters. Although it was sad to see him depart, especially after the blistering start to his time in Manchester that he was ultimately unable to kick on from, City fans can sleep well knowing that the squad is stronger now than it was at the conclusion of last season.

ALSO READ:

Sign up to read this article
Read news from 100’s of titles, curated specifically for you.
Already a member? Sign in here
Related Stories
Top stories on inkl right now
One subscription that gives you access to news from hundreds of sites
Already a member? Sign in here
Our Picks
Fourteen days free
Download the app
One app. One membership.
100+ trusted global sources.