In my five-plus years writing the NFL picks column, I can't remember a week where I thought so many of the point spreads were off. You should never question Vegas, so I'm committing one of the handicapper sins. Still, there are a handful of games that I think are a couple points too high and picking games is all about finding value.
Favorites went 8-5-1 against the spread (ATS) in Week 4 and are 31-28-2. Home teams went 6-9 straight up and 4-10-1 ATS, bringing their totals to 31-31-1 and 28-33-2.
My three most confident picks are Jacksonville, Philadelphia and Arizona. With so much uncertainty surrounding Buffalo-Tennessee, stay away. The same goes for Denver-New England.
