The Cardinals’ big picture is sunnier than it has been for many years.
MVP-caliber corner infielders, productive young veterans, impactful rookies and a wave of high-ceiling prospects have the franchise trending well.
Rival teams respect the Cardinals’ potential. Independent evaluators place them among the teams capable of paying the extreme trade price for Washington Nationals superstar Juan Soto.
Writing for ESPN.com, Jeff Passan cited the Cards’ epic 2021 draft to explain why the talent-poor Nationals are looking in this direction:
“The Cardinals stole third baseman Jordan Walker, who just turned 20 and is crushing at AA already, with the 21st pick. Their three second-round picks were all home runs, too: Masyn Winn, the dynamic, toolsy shortstop; Tink Hence, the right-hander with a 0.99 ERA and 48-to-9 strikeout-to-walk ratio in Low-A; and Alec Burleson, an outfielder already at AAA and slashing .339/.379/.554. Any of the four could be in play for Soto, alongside right-hander Gordon Graceffo and a myriad of big league or big league-ready players: second baseman Nolan Gorman, outfielder Dylan Carlson or left-hander Matthew Liberatore.”
But overspending on a single luxury item at the midpoint of the organizational build-up could prevent the Cardinals from assembling something truly special.
When we say special, we mean establishing a strong six-man starting rotation backed by a strong five-man rotation at Triple A. During the brief periods when all six big-league starters are healthy and effective at the same time, two of them could piggy-back starts to reduce bullpen strain.
Special also would include six relievers capable of handling high-leverage work backed by four good prospects staying fresh on the Memphis shuttle.
A special offense would feature a dozen productive position players with power and speed, left-right balance and multi-positional flexibility to optimize matchups — backed by minor-league muscle ready to flex.
The Cardinals have used this Reunion Tour campaign to move closer to that lofty goal. They’ve sorted, tested and assessed their top prospects.
By refusing to commit huge long-term deals for a free-agent hitter over the winter, the Cardinals kept the path clear for Gorman, Brendan Donovan and Juan Yepez to further their growth in the big leagues. Circumstances also forced the Cardinals to expedite the development of rookie pitchers Andre Pallante, Zack Thompson and Liberatore.
Down in the minors, Burleson, Walker, Winn, catcher Ivan Herrera and first baseman Malcom Nunez made strides. So did starting pitchers Graceffo and Michael McGreevy.
During the latest draft, Randy Flores’ team replenished the organization’s arms supply by selecting pitcher after pitcher after pitcher from the college ranks.
Now the Cardinals must manage these assets wisely. They could build an enduring 100-victory roster through a combination of promotions, trades and free-agent additions.
Agent Scott Boras almost certainly will take Soto to free agency after the 2024 season. Spending massive assets to rent him for this rest of this season and two more would make it difficult to build a strong top-to-bottom roster.
That’s not to suggest that John Mozeliak and Co. should stand pat ahead of the trade deadline.
The injury-depleted Cardinals still should take their shot at the expanded playoff bracket this fall. Returning to postseason play would put a fitting climax to the Reunion Tour of Albert Pujols, Yadier Molina and Adam Wainwright.
October baseball would reward the remarkable performance of Paul Goldschmidt and encourage Nolan Arenado not to exercise his contract opt-out. Postseason play also could enhance the development of the youngsters the Cardinals take forward.
This team is assembling more emerging talent than it can house on the 40-man roster. Mozeliak should convert some of the surplus into pitching help for this season and beyond rather than risk losing it for nothing.
When starting pitcher Steven Matz stepped on that landmine in Cincinnati, the mishap just underscored where management must focus ahead of this deadline. Adding Soto to the batting order sure would be fun, but it wouldn’t address the glaring need for pitching, pitching and more pitching.
That’s why MLB.com‘s survey of 17 baseball executives found only three who picked the Cardinals to get Soto. That’s why an ESPN simulation projected a mere 2.9-victory gain for the Cardinals if they acquired Soto, leaving them on the playoff bubble.
Let’s face it: The Cardinals would need to add two reliable starters, two high-leverage relievers, a strong all-around catcher, another impact outfielder and a more productive designated hitter to become special for this stretch run.
That is not going to happen between now and Aug. 2.
This team still could improve, though, through additions from the outside, players returning from injury and other prospects making their debut. This team still could chase down the Milwaukee Brewers in the National League Central.
And that would set the stage for much better things to come.
