JP Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon warned Fox Business host Maria Bartiromo on Wednesday that a recession was now a “likely outcome” amid Donald Trump’s escalating trade war and that he expects corporations to default in the near future.
Less than three months after he told people worried about tariffs and inflation to “get over it,” Dimon warned the MAGA-boosting anchor that “sticky inflation” isn’t going away anytime soon while urging the administration to begin negotiating new trade deals with other countries “quickly.”
Still, even as the chairman of the largest U.S. bank sounded the alarm over the impacts of Trump’s tariffs on the global economy, he insisted that he was “taking a calm view” of the situation. “Let them settle down, take a deep breath, negotiate some trade deals,” Dimon said on Mornings with Maria. “That’s the best thing they can do.”
Bartiromo — a fervent defender of Trump’s trade policies despite conceding they’ve wiped away trillions of dollars of wealth in the stock market and could spark a recession — sat down with Dimon shortly after China responded to the president’s 104 percent import tax hike by imposing an 84 percent retaliatory tariff on the United States.
Right away, Dimon wanted to assure Fox viewers that the current financial panic isn’t comparable to the 2008 Great Recession, noting at the time that “the world was massively over-leveraged” due to subprime mortgage securities.
“The banking system’s not that leveraged today, but it’s serious. And it was serious before the last election. We have a huge, complex geopolitical situation; huge fiscal deficits not just here, but around the world.” he said.
“Sticky inflation, which I personally think will not go away so quickly,” Dimon added. “And then the you have, you know, what’s going to happen with tariffs, with trade. Tariffs and trade are just part of that mix. They don’t completely stand alone.”
Asked what he thought about the president’s sweeping tariff plan, the banking heavyweight noted that it “is perfectly reasonable for someone to say that trade was unfair.” At the same time, he took issue with how the White House formulated the trade rates, saying “they have it wrong” and that they don’t seem to fully understand it.
“When they put the tariffs in way beyond what people expected, that will cause a little inflation and slow down growth,” he stated before expressing hope that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will lead trade negotiations going forward.
“Get those things done quickly,” Dimon continued. “If you want to calm down the markets, show progress in those things and let Scott take the time — trade deals are very large and very complex. They can’t be done overnight, but you really have to have teams working on them to get them right.”
After saying the “goal of all of this trade stuff” should be to make America’s allies — such as Europe, Japan and South Korea — “stronger” trading partners and to “bring them closer as we build up our military,” Dimon acknowledged that in the short term the U.S. economy will struggle and businesses could shutter.
“Is there anything you can tell us about the environment right now in terms of loan demand, in terms of default?” Bartiromo wondered. “Because while all of this is happening, you’ve got, for example, your economics team predicting a recession this year, and you’ve got corporations saying I’m cutting back on spending and investing right now.”
While he said he normally doesn’t pay attention to anecdotes, Dimon said “recessionary talk” is “real” and that he’s hearing it “from everybody now” that corporations are “going to hold back a little” for the time being. While noting that businesses could be waiting to see if the administration can push through corporate tax cuts this summer, he said economists are “probably right” that the economy will experience a slowdown.
“How significant a slowdown? Are you seeing defaults?” Bartiromo asked, prompting Dimon to flatly respond: “Not yet, but I expect them.”
The Chase chairman went on to suggest that companies could soon be reducing their workforces to cut back on costs, leading the Fox host to wonder if Dimon’s seeing CEOs actively slashing expenses. “I think you’s going to see that a little bit,” he replied.
“How significant? Do you personally expect a recession?” Bartiromo reacted.
“I think, probably. That’s a likely outcome,” Dimon concluded.
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