This week, Ukraine will solemnly mark one year since Russian troops crossed the country's border and began what Russian President Vladimir Putin maintains is a "special military operation".
One year on, thousands of people have died, millions more have been displaced and Ukraine is a country that's a shell of its former self.
A lot has happened in a year — let's examine what's happened in the past 12 months, and what could happen next in the war.
Short on time?
There's a lot to unpack from the past 12 months — so if you want to jump to the relevant question (and its answer), hit one of the links below to take you there.
- How did the war start?
- What's the current state of play?
- What has one year of war in Ukraine looked like?
- How many casualties have there been?
- How many people have left Ukraine?
- Is Ukraine any closer to joining NATO?
- Could there be a peace deal between Zelenskyy and Putin?
- Are other countries sending troops to fight?
- Could Putin go nuclear?
- When is the war going to end?
What else do you want to know?
Have you got questions about the war in Ukraine that you want answered? Now's your chance.
We'll be running an expert Q&A live blog with ABC News correspondents who have reported from Ukraine's front line over the past year on Friday, February 24.
Follow this link to ask your questions, and check back in later this week to see them answered.
How did the war start?
For months leading up to February 2022, Russia was tossing around the idea of invading Ukraine.
Russian troops had spent months massing troops around their neighbour, with more than 80,000 moving into the region in March and April 2021.
Some of those troops were removed in June that year but, by the end of 2021, thousands more troops began to amass around Ukraine's border, with the total size of the army in excess of 130,000.
Around that same time in December 2021, Moscow issued a series of demands, including that Ukraine never be granted NATO membership and the NATO alliance be rolled back from eastern Europe (accompanied by vague threats of a military response if those demands weren't met).
Then in January 2022, both the US and NATO formally rejected those demands in writing, while remaining on high alert that an invasion could be imminent.
At the time, Russian President Vladimir Putin consistently maintained that Russia had no intention of invading Ukraine, but some theories about why he might invade at the time included:
- To prevent Ukraine from joining NATO
- To reunite Soviet countries and regain the USSR's former glory
- To increase Putin's domestic influence
- To provide guaranteed access to fresh water for the Crimean Peninsula
Putin continued to deny that an invasion of Ukraine was going to occur — but in a televised address on February 24, Putin ordered a military offensive.
The troops that had amassed on Ukraine's borders advanced, and explosions began to ring out across Ukrainian cities.
What's the current state of play?
One of the biggest changes that happened in the first year of the war was the territory Russia claimed.
Here's how Ukraine looked just days before Russian troops crossed the threshold:
Since September last year, when Russia illegally annexed four regions of Ukraine, the country's territories resembled this:
But parts of these areas highlighted in red are still under contention, with both sides gaining and losing territory. Currently, Russia controls around 18 per cent of Ukrainian territory, largely concentrated in the east.
The Institute for the Study of War provides weekly updates on advances that have been made and areas of contention, which are largely concentrated around the annexed regions — particularly Zaphorizhzhia and Kherson.
What has one year of war in Ukraine looked like?
There's been no shortage of major events that have made headlines, but there have been some significant moments that have dramatically shaped the war.
This isn't an exhaustive list — rather it's a snapshot of some of the major events from the war that made headlines over the past year.
How many casualties have there been?
Both Ukraine and Russia are believed to have suffered significant military casualties, although neither side release their figures.
In December last year, Ukrainian presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak said between 10,000 and 13,000 troops had died. Back in June, he said between 100 and 200 Ukrainian soldiers were dying daily.
Those comments have not been confirmed by the Ukrainian military.
In November, Mark Milley, the most senior US general, said around 100,000 Russian soldiers and 100,000 Ukrainian soldiers had been killed or wounded since the start of the war — but neither Kyiv nor Moscow commented.
In January this year, Norway's army chief estimated that number had grown substantially on both sides of the war.
"Russian losses are beginning to approach around 180,000 dead or wounded soldiers," Norwegian defence chief General Eirik Kristoffersen said in an interview with TV2.
"Ukrainian losses are probably over 100,000 dead or wounded. In addition, Ukraine has about 30,000 civilians who died in this terrible war," the Norwegian general said.
General Kristoffersen didn't specify how those figures were calculated, and neither side commented on the reports.
As of February 13, the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) has recorded nearly 19,000 civilian casualties in Ukraine.
The OHCHR believes the actual figures are considerably higher, particularly in areas where there's been intense fighting — especially in the areas annexed by Russia.
It's also hard to gauge a true picture of how many military deaths there have been.
Foreign fighters and volunteers have also been killed in the war — including four Australians.
How many people have left Ukraine?
Since the start of the war, the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) has recorded more than 8 million Ukrainian refugees fleeing the country.
The latest update on February 15 showed 8,073,182 refugees from Ukraine had been recorded across Europe, with 4,848,209 of those refugees registered for Temporary Protection or similar national protection schemes in Europe.
Some Ukrainian refugees have since returned back to their country, and some have left Europe altogether in search of safety.
Is Ukraine any closer to joining NATO?
The short answer is no.
On September 30 last year, Zelenskyy announced a surprise bid for Ukraine to become a fast-tracked member of NATO.
He made the announcement after Putin said it had annexed four Ukrainian regions, with Zelenskyy saying at the time: "We are taking our decisive step by signing Ukraine's application for accelerated accession to NATO."
But in practical terms — the country is no closer to joining since that application was lodged, although NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg has said that Ukraine will one day be a member.
This is largely due to NATO's charter. Article 5 states that if one NATO member is attacked, all members should come to its defence, which would mean if Ukraine was made a member of NATO, other countries would technically have to join the war with Russia — which could result in a heady escalation from Moscow.
But even without membership, NATO is offering constant support to Ukraine in the way of weapons and ammunition.
That said, NATO could have two new member states soon. The alliance is currently weighing up whether to admit Sweden and Finland as members, who applied after years of being neutral states in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
28 of NATO's 30 member states have given the green light to them joining the alliance — but to be admitted, all NATO members must unanimously agree.
Türkiye and Hungary are the only countries who haven't approved their membership, due to Türkiye's belief that both countries are housing Turkish citizens they consider "terrorists". Türkiye wants those people extradited before it approves the Scandinavian states' applications.
Could there be a peace deal between Zelenskyy and Putin?
It looks incredibly unlikely.
Earlier this month, Zelenskyy said he wouldn't consider letting territory go in exchange for the war ending, and both leaders have been adamant about their abilities to fight in the war for as long as it takes.
Both Zelenskyy and Putin have been unwavering in their aims from the war, making any kind of peace deal almost impossible to negotiate.
Last month, Zelenskyy spoke to Sky News in the UK, telling interviewer Kay Burley that Putin "doesn't want negotiations because he doesn't want peace", and he wasn't interested in meeting with the Russian President.
"We had [a] meeting with him in Normandy Format, it was before [the] full-scale invasion," Zelenskyy said.
"I saw the man who said one thing and then did another."
In the war's early days, there were discussions between Ukraine and Russia about possible resolutions, but those meetings in Belarus and Türkiye failed to create any major change.
A major contributor to those talks between the two countries collapsing was Russia refusing to honour humanitarian zone agreements to keep Ukrainian civilians out of harm's way.
Are other countries sending troops to fight?
To avoid escalating tensions and deepening the war, other countries aren't sending troops to bolster Ukraine's army.
But that's not to say that foreign troops aren't helping Ukraine — currently, there are Australian soldiers working alongside British troops in the UK helping train recent Ukrainian recruits for combat.
So far, around 10,000 Ukrainian soldiers have gone through the training course, which teaches basic battlefield tactics and survival skills.
Plus, some NATO member countries have troops stationed near the Ukrainian border, should they be required — but there would need to be a significant escalation for them to cross into Ukraine.
Could Putin go nuclear?
It's a big question that keeps being raised, but it's impossible to be certain of the answer. The Russian president often makes thinly veiled threats about nuclear weapons, but the reality of whether he would is much less certain.
Putin first cautioned the West about Russia's nuclear capabilities when the invasion first happened, with UN Secretary-General António Guterres at the time saying, "nuclear conflict, once unthinkable, is now back within the realm of possibility".
Then on Tuesday he announced that Russia was suspending its participation in the last remaining nuclear arms control treaty with the United States – the New START treaty – and warned that Russia had put new ground-based strategic nuclear weapons on combat duty.
The New START Treaty limited both sides to 1,550 warheads on deployed intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarine ballistic missiles and heavy bombers. Both sides met the central limits by 2018.
Russia has the largest stockpile of nuclear weapons in the world, with close to 6,000 warheads, experts say.
Many experts tend to agree that Putin likely won't resort to nuclear weapons, but the threat still must be taken seriously.
What we do know is that should nuclear weapons be used, we can expect the West — particularly the United States — to react strongly.
You can take a closer look at what nuclear capabilities Russia has here, and what could happen if nuclear weapons were used in the war here.
When is the war going to end?
Few people could have imagined that the war would have stretched on for a full 12 months, but the conflict continues to grind on with no sign of reprieve any time soon.
What we know is that Zelenskyy is committed to keep fighting Russia, and the evidence of that is clear when you consider the regions Ukraine's fighters have reclaimed.
That sentiment is also shared on the other side of the fence — Putin used a speech in Volgograd to say he was willing to use Russia's entire arsenal to win the war, which includes nuclear weapons.
There are a range of possibilities about where the war could go from here, but it is almost impossible to predict through the fog of war — especially given military intelligence suggests Putin could ramp up Russia's offensive on February 24, when he marks one year of his deadly invasion.
Regardless, day by day the war stretches on — and there are no clear signs it will end any time soon.
ABC/wires
