Good morning.
Insurance is the science of balancing probability and consequence. The higher the odds that something will happen, the more it will cost you to insure against its consequences. The more you do to lower that probability—whether it’s installing alarms or visiting a president-elect who’s threatened to impose 25% tariffs on everything you export to their country—the less likely those negative consequences will presumably occur.
That was clearly the hope for Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in racing down to see President-elect Donald Trump on Friday. On Truth Social, Trump described the meeting as “very productive,” underscoring Trudeau’s commitment to border security.
What are the odds the U.S. will impose high tariffs on its two largest trading partners, whose supply chains are integrated with U.S. companies as part of a free-trade zone? Not high for Canada, in my view, as the fix doesn’t involve complex economic disputes like Canadian softwood lumber exports or its price controls on drugs. Instead, Canada has to commit to curb the flow of illegal immigrants and drugs coming into the U.S.
The risk is more acute but still relatively low when it comes to America’s southern border. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum expressed confidence last week that a tariff war could be averted after a phone call with Trump.
Has such outreach reduced the odds of a tariff war to zero? No. But encouraging rhetoric on all sides may lower fears to the point where it’s almost business as usual. (Let’s wait to see how the threat of 100% tariffs now facing BRIC nations plays out.)
Fear is a hard emotion to tamp down, though, even if it’s not based on realistic threats. Take, for example, the alleged panic over the potential for period-tracking apps to be used to monitor for abortions. Oura CEO Tom Hale, whose ring can track sleep, fertility and more, assured Fortune that the Finnish company is bound by customer preferences, not to mention privacy laws in the U.S. and Europe.
“I don’t know of any cases where anyone’s biometric data is being contested or being used against [people],” Hale said. “It’s probably more a statement about the political atmosphere. That being said, it’s important to make that risk zero if we can.”
In the meantime, emphasizing the low probability of these rumored consequences occurring may help reduce panic.
More news below.
Diane Brady
diane.brady@fortune.com
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