SUPPORT for independence is not yet high enough to break away from the United Kingdom – but a Labour government at Westminster will “help in that regard”, Stephen Flynn has said.
In an exclusive interview with Lesley Riddoch for The National, the SNP Westminster leader was pushed on the direction he would like to see his party take in order to gain Scottish independence.
The SNP have said that if they win a majority of Scottish seats at the General Election – at least 29 out of the 57 on offer – they will take that as a mandate to open independence negotiations with the UK Government.
First Minister John Swinney has said those negotiations should actually be about a repeat of the 2014 referendum – which was held using a Section 30 order from the UK government to allow Holyrood to legislate in a reserved area.
However, both Labour leader Keir Starmer and Tory leader Rishi Sunak have said that they will flatly refuse any request for a second independence referendum regardless of how the people of Scotland vote.
Speaking to Flynn, Riddoch raised a question from one National reader who asked: “What are the next steps? If there's no Section 30 coming, what's the plan?”
He said: “I would be pretty confident in my mind that if we do win a majority and the United Kingdom prime minister – a Labour United Kingdom prime minister – says no and ignores the view of the people of Scotland, that's quite a compelling argument to take into the 2026 election.”
Riddoch said that, before Swinney took control of the party in May, the SNP had seemed to be heading towards treating the 2026 Holyrood election as a de facto referendum.
The National columnist put it to Flynn that “things have changed because John Swinney is not up for it”.
Responding, Flynn said that was “definitely” not the case, and insisted that the SNP’s direction would be decided by the party membership.
He further argued that polling numbers – which suggest that 50% of Scotland support independence while 50% oppose it – are “not good enough”, but that a Labour government implementing conservative policies at Westminster would help move the dial.
Flynn said: “The point I was trying to make was, whilst parliamentary machinations are all undertaken over the course of the next 10 days and beyond, we need to make sure that we are actually winning the argument here.
“We're still 50/50 in the polls and that's not good enough. We need to be doing better.
“We need to convince people that independence is the right way forward and we need to do that in big numbers.
“I actually think a Labour government's going to help in that regard, because the change that people might be expecting isn't going to come.
“We know what [shadow chancellor] Rachel Reeves stands for. We know that she believes in the continuation of austerity, massive public sector cuts, has the same fiscal rules as the Tories. [Former Bank of England chief economist Andy Haldane] said there was a ‘lettuce leaf’ between the Labour and Tory fiscal rules.
“We know that on Brexit we're not going to see any on the single market or customs union or freedom of movement.
“We know that on the cost of living, there's not going to be anything substantial put on the table in terms of energy bills, mortgage payments, or food bills.
“So as we build up to that 2026 election, with the party position being what it is, with a Labour government not delivering, I think that's quite a compelling narrative for us to grow support for independence.”
Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar has also previously suggested that his party’s fate at the 2026 Holyrood elections could be tied to how a Starmer-led government performs in London.
In February, he told The New Statesman: “I am really open with Keir and the UK shadow cabinet that I want to and need to be going into a 2026 election in the midterm of a popular Labour government, not an unpopular one.”
Elsewhere in the exclusive interview, Riddoch challenged Flynn on his position on oil and gas licensing and the environmental test the SNP say new fields will have to pass, Labour’s plans for GB Energy, and perceptions of his party after 17 years in power at Holyrood.
You can watch the full interview here.
