The Chicago Bears are contemplating dealing the No. 1 overall pick.
So says Todd McShay from ESPN, who relayed some of the chatter he had heard this past week at the Senior Bowl in Mobile, Ala.
I’ve heard similar in talking to scouts and execs this week about Chicago’s situation. Yes, the Bears have to figure out internally if Fields is their guy. But the opportunity they have, with all those QB-needy teams sitting in the top 10 and wanting to trade up, is tremendous. The bigger question becomes how far down the board can the Bears move and still land a top defensive prospect. Alabama’s Will Anderson Jr. and Georgia’s Jalen Carter would still be there if Chicago drops one spot to No. 2, and at least one of them will likely be there at No. 4 if Chicago swaps picks with Indianapolis. But beyond No. 4, who are you getting?
A recent Pro Football Focus mock draft had the Houston Texans making a deal with Chicago. The Texans sent their proprietary Round 1 (No. 2 overall), Round 2, and 2024 Round 4 choices for the top pick overall. According to the Drafttek trade value chart, Houston would be overpaying by 180 points just on the No. 2 and No. 33 overall picks alone. The draft value chart does not take into account how much future selections cost.
If the Texans and Bears ask each other to simply hold picks, similar to what happens in the NBA draft, how much would it cost Houston?
The most recent comparable would be the 2004 NFL draft when Eli Manning refused to play for the San Diego Chargers, who took him No. 1 overall. The New York Giants selected Philip Rivers No. 4 overall, and then made a deal with San Diego. The Chargers got Manning, New York’s 2004 third-rounder, and 2005 first- and fifth-rounders.
In terms of the hallowed trade value chart, No. 1 overall cost 3,000 points. Rivers and the Round 3 (No. 65 overall) pick cost 2,065 points, which means the 2005 selections theoretically had to add up to the remaining 935 for San Diego to relinquish Manning.
What must be noted is the Rivers-Manning scenario was one where a player refused to play for his draft team. Chicago and Houston would be negotiating a player swap as the Bears don’t want to move too far down in the first round to miss out on their intended defensive target.
