Tadej Pogačar begins his 2025 Classics campaign at Strade Bianche on Saturday, starting a seven-week block that could see him win every race he rides, writing another record-breaking chapter of his career and of pro cycling history.
The UAE Team Emirates-XRG leader will target Strade Bianche and Milan-San Remo, before heading north for three Belgian cobbled Classics, including the Tour of Flanders. Paris-Roubaix is also a possibility, while he's confirmed for the Ardennes classics – the Amstel Gold Race, La Flèche Wallonne, and Liège-Bastogne-Liège.
There are no stage races on his spring schedule, just big one-day Classics almost every weekend as part of a carefully calibrated plan for the 2025 season. Pogačar already has two stages and the overall at the UAE Tour to his name, and in the summer he'll turn his attention to the Tour de France and Vuelta a España, ahead of the Road World Championships in Rwanda in late September.
A fourth Tour de France victory is the most important goal, but Pogačar just wants to have fun and enjoy his racing.
"I prefer the idea of being a Classics rider who wins Grand Tours, even if I started with a victory in the Tour," he told L'Equipe during the winter. "I love the Classics, they're pure adrenaline, a one-day shock that has nothing to do with suffering spread out over three weeks.
"You have to be physically and psychologically ready to battle for six hours, often in bad weather, on roads that are always the same and that everyone knows by heart. The good move can start anywhere, you have to be a bit of a gambler, not make mistakes.
"On that one day, you have to be the strongest, the luckiest, the most inspired, everything has to line up, there are no catch-up sessions. As everything is decided in a single day, the emotion of victory is incomparable."
Milan-San Remo and Paris-Roubaix are the only monument Classics missing from Pogačar's palmares and he could win both this year – should he decide to take on the latter, that is.
"Milan-San Remo is the least predictable race on the calendar, but it's the one where I really want to improve and try to win it again and again," Pogačar said of La Classicissima, where he and his UAE teammates are expected to try to blow the race apart on the Cipressa climb ahead of a decisive attack on the Poggio.
The possibility of Pogačar riding Paris-Roubaix has been discussed for months and he only fueled speculation by doing a reconnaissance ride in February while in northern Europe and posing for photographs in the Arenberg Forest. Only 14 Tour de France winners have won Paris-Roubaix, with Bernard Hinault the last to do the rare and multi-talent double in 1981.
Ciro Scognamiglio of La Gazzetta dello Sport reported at the weekend that there is a secret plan for Pogačar to ride this year's Paris-Roubaix. He only seemed to enjoy fueling the speculation about riding Paris-Roubaix as a guest on the French RMC radio show, Sport Bartoli Time.
"I can't say if it will be this year or next year, but I can't say no to the fact that it will be this year, there is always a chance. We will see, let's leave a little surprise, I really love this race," he said.
"I thought it would be too hard for me, but when I did the reconnaissance I said to myself that maybe I could do it. If I am in good shape, maybe I could try… For now I am focused on Strade Bianche and Milan-San Remo, after these two races I think I will make my decision."
Targeting a triple triumph at Strade Bianche
The Strade Bianche is Pogačar's first Classics goal. He won the part-gravel Tuscan race in 2022 and then again last year.
A third victory would equal the success of Fabian Cancellara (in 2008, 2012 and 2016), meaning a sector of the famed white gravel roads would be named in his honour and a special milestone erected on the roadside. Only Michał Kwiatkowski (Ineos Grenadiers) has a chance of achieving that recognition, having won in 2014 and 2017.
Three years ago, Pogačar attacked solo with 50km to go, finishing alone in the stunning Piazza del Campo in renaissance Siena. In 2024, he attacked 80km out, surging away on a gravel road descent before cruising to victory again. He had time to smile at the photographs at the top of the Via Santa Caterina climb into central Siena and won by 2:44.
We don't know if Pogačar will produce yet another solo ride to victory but it seems likely; he just has to choose his spot and the right moment in Saturday's race. Pogačar races on informed instinct and so will make a pre-race plan with his teammates and directeurs sportifs and then study his rivals during the race.
If he senses a weakness or fear, he may go early and time trial his way to victory once again. It is a risk but also helps avoid any crashes in the peloton. He could wait until the circuit that includes two climbs of the Colle Pinzuto and Le Tolfe gravel sectors and blast away from anyone still on his wheel, but take that risk if he is so much stronger than everyone else?
Pogačar and his teammates will do a reconnaissance ride on Thursday morning, no doubt covering the final 130km of the 213km race route. That would include 11 of the 16 gravel sectors and 68km of the 81.7km total of gravel roads, starting with the longest ones mid-race near Buonconvento and then the final circuit and the decisive sectors nearer Siena.
He will be UAE's sole leader at the race, with no place for on-form teammate and possible co-leader Juan Ayuso, who will focus on Tirreno-Adriatico after winning the Trofeo Laigueglia.
The team's squad includes climbers and rouleurs who can ride for Pogačar early in the race and support him later if needed, with Filippo Baroncini, Isaac Del Toro, Felix Großschartner, Domen Novak, Florian Vermeersch and Tim Wellens also in the seven-rider lineup.
"The team is on a good wave at the moment with many wins already and we'll hope to continue that over the next races," Pogačar said. "Strade is a race where I have some great memories. My track record there is pretty good and I hope to be up at the pointy end of the action again on Saturday.
"We can expect some strong rivals, the startlist is always on a high level for these big races, and it should make things exciting both for us and for the fans."
Pogačar 'both the beauty and the ugliness of modern-day cycling'
It's often difficult to understand if Pogačar is being modest and gracious towards his rivals or trolling them and playing tactical mind-games. He is pro cycling's smiling assassin.
Pogačar won 25 races in just 58 race days last season, including the Giro d'Italia, Tour de France, Liège-Bastogne-Liège and the world title, the latter with a 100km attack.
He already seemed lean and on form during the UAE Tour when he blasted away from his rivals to win on the closing Jebel Hafeet climb and seal overall victory.
His coach Javier Sola believes Pogačar is still improving. The UAE coaches have added more gym work and more intensity to boost Pogačar's "maximal torque production." That should help in this block of spring Classics racing and especially at Strade Bianche on Saturday.
This season, Pogačar's biggest rivals seem to be avoiding any head-to-head battles, at least until the Tour de France. Jonas Vingegaard, Primož Roglič and others shied away from riding the UAE Tour and have opted for alternative goals or races where they at least have a chance of success
Pogačar's delay in confirming he will ride Paris-Roubaix and especially the Vuelta, seems part of the mind games at play between the biggest riders in the sport.
Tom Pidcock appears to be a possible rival for Pogačar at Strade Bianche. After all, he won the race with a Pogačar-style attack in 2023. The Yorkshireman, this year racing for Q36.5, has won four races this season, but may not yet be at his best and so looks unlikely to be able to challenge the Slovenian in a mano-a-mano battle on the gravel roads and steep climbs of Tuscany.
Few riders will admit it but most of the Strade Bianche peloton will be riding for second place behind Pogačar on Saturday. It could be a battle for first amongst the mere mortals. A podium place alongside Pogačar and a haul of UCI ranking points would still be a success for most riders on Saturday.
"Pogačar is both the 'bello e il brutto' [beauty and the ugliness] of modern-day cycling," Alberto Bettiol told Cyclingnews on Thursday morning as he travelled to Tuscany.
"He makes cycling beautiful to watch because he's as good as Eddy Merckx and is smashing all the records. The 'ugly' side of racing against Pogačar is that you line up for a race knowing that it's almost impossible to beat him.
Bettiol is convinced that Pogačar is beatable at Milan-San Remo and perhaps the Tour of Flanders but the Italian remains brutally pragmatic about Strade Bianche.
"I honestly don't think there's anyone on the Strade Bianche start list who can even try to stay with him," Bettiol said with honesty.
"I'd have loved to see Mathieu van der Poel take him on when he's at his best but he's only just started racing and is logically focused on the cobbled Classics, when he has more chance of beating Pogačar."
Bettiol will be riding to advise and guide an on-form XDS-Astana teammate Christian Scaroni, who matched Juan Ayuso during the hilly and hard-fought Trofeo Laigueglia on Wednesday. However, being as strong as Ayuso does not mean Scaroni can challenge Pogačar.
"We have to be realistic, there's nothing we can do. Pogačar can race without calculating his effort. Van der Poel can too, but us humans have got to think carefully about every effort we make in a race," Bettiol said.
"I hope Pogačar attacks early on Saturday, after UAE hurt everyone on the San Martino in Grania sector with 100km to race. He can clear off, do his thing, and things fall into place.
"That's safer for him, he can avoid any crashes and pace his effort. If he gains a minute, he can have the team car with him in case he punctures. For the rest of us it'll then be fast and furious behind as we race for second place. I like our chances for a place on the podium alongside Pogačar.
"That's still a result anyone and everyone should be proud of. Being beaten by Pogačar is not a dishonour, it's a 'success' to remember and cherish when we are old and retired and talk to our kids about our career and we understand just how good Pogačar was during his career."
