ORLANDO, Fla. — A new tropical wave emerged over the mid-Atlantic Wednesday morning with odds of becoming the subsequent tropical depression or storm, according to the National Hurricane Center’s 2 p.m. EDT update. Meanwhile, hurricane specialists are waiting on another wave to roll off the African coast and have increased its odds of development.
The newly emerged wave is producing a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. It has a 20% chance of growing more organized and stronger within the next five days, the NHC said. Atlantic conditions are expected to be marginally better for slow development east of the Lesser Antilles by Sunday and into early next week.
The wave is pushing west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
Farther east, a surface trough of low pressure that hurricane specialists have been watching near the Cabo Verde Islands has become small and weak, the NHC said. Significant development of this system is no longer expected.
However, meteorologists are keeping their eyes on Africa’s west coast as they expect another tropical wave to emerge by Thursday. Conditions appear somewhat conducive for some slow development as the wave is forecast to have a 40% chance of developing in the next five days.
If either system develops, the first one to do so will be the sixth named storm of the season and don the moniker of Fred. If they both develop, the slower will be named Grace.
The areas of interest are about two weeks shy of the “peak of hurricane season,” or the period where meteorologists observe the most tropical storm and hurricane activity in the Atlantic. Conditions of warm water and low vertical wind shear in the upper atmosphere become ideal for storm production between mid-August and mid-October.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration expect the remainder of the 2021 season to be a bumpy one, according to its midseason forecast. A typical season has 13 named storms and seven named hurricanes. On Wednesday, the NOAA updated its forecast predicting 15-21 named storms with sustained winds of 39 mph or greater, as well as seven to 10 hurricanes and three to five major hurricanes, or storms of Category 3 winds and higher.
In May, the NOAA predicted 13-20 named storms with six to 10 becoming hurricanes and three to five major hurricanes.
Last year, the NOAA made a similar forecast at midseason. By Nov. 30, the end of hurricane season, meteorologists cataloged 30 named storms — the most recorded in a single year.
