A tropical wave plowing its way across the Atlantic Ocean has an even greater chance to form into the season’s next tropical depression or storm, according to the National Hurricane Center, which also began tracking a second system in the Atlantic.
In its 8 p.m. tropical outlook, the NHC said showers and thunderstorms associated with the a broad area of low pressure continue to become better organized as it finds favorable waters for formation located several hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands.
“Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form over the next day or so,” the outlook stated. ”This system is forecast to move westward at 15 to 20 mph across the central tropical Atlantic with further development through the middle part of the week.”
The NHC’s forecast bubble for the likely path of the system puts it just off the Leeward Islands by next Sunday with a more likely path to bring it into the Caribbean than the NHC’s forecast from Saturday when it looked like it might swing to the north in the Atlantic.
The NHC gives the system a 90% chance to form into a depression or storm in the next two days.
If it develops, it would become Tropical Depression Three and if it spins up to sustained winds of at least 39 mph, it would become Tropical Storm Bret.
Late Sunday, the NHC also began tracking a new system of showers and thunderstorms amid a tropical wave that emerged off the coast of Africa.
“While this activity is currently disorganized, some slow development of this system is possible through the middle to latter part of this week as the system moves westward at about 15 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic,” according to the outlook.
The NHC gives the system a 10% chance of forming in the next two days, and 20% in the next seven days.
The NHC determined the year’s first storm was an unnamed subtropical storm in January, which was followed by Tropical Storm Arlene that formed earlier this month.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration seasonal forecast released in May projects 2023 to be an average season with between 12 and 17 named storms. Of those, five to nine would grow into hurricanes, and of those, one to three would reach major hurricane strength of 111 mph sustained winds or greater.
The official 2023 Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1-Nov. 30.
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