Few teams have experienced the turnover at running back that the Denver Broncos did between the end of the 2022 season and the start of 2023. New head coach Sean Payton has a history of mixing and matching running backs effectively over the long term (see the coexistence of Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram as proof), but Payton has cleaned house in the RB room and has more questions than answers heading toward training camp.
In 2022, the Broncos seemingly hoarded veteran running backs with Melvin Gordon, Latavius Murray, Marlon Mack, Chase Edmonds and Mike Boone. All of them are gone, and the only running back remaining who made an impact is Javonte Williams, but he is coming back from a devastating knee injury. Of the running back carries Denver had last season, 319 of them are gone (86.9 percent) – the most of any team other than Detroit (94.6 percent).
Does that mean the Broncos are going to be pass-happy in 2023? Probably not. In free agency, the team added power-back Samaje Perine as well as signing tackle Mike McGlinchey, guard Ben Powers, veteran fullback Michael Burton and blocking tight end Chris Manhertz. This has the look of a team wanting to run more, not less, but the nagging questions will remain about the workload share for the Broncos this season until Williams’ recovery is apparent.
Javonte Williams
Expectations were sky high for Williams last season after splitting time with Gordon as a rookie. He was getting more carries to start the 2022 season and showing improvement as a receiver, but that ended in an instant with an injury about as bad as knee injuries get – a torn ACL and LCL and a partially torn PCL in his right knee. It’s difficult enough to return from one torn ligament, but it’s rare when three of the four have been severely damaged. Simply stated, this is the type of injury that ends careers.
On the positive side, Williams was looking good on a side practice field during OTAs and has vowed he will be ready for the start of the regular season. While coaches can never be fully trusted when discussing player injuries, Payton doubled down and said Williams may be ready for the start of training camp.
The Broncos are likely to err on the side of caution but firmly believe Williams will return this season. The question that hasn’t been answered is when exactly that will be.
Samaje Perine
As a rookie in Washington in 2017, Perine rushed 175 times for 603 yards. He has never approached those numbers since. In the 54 games he has played during the last five seasons, he has rushed just 226 times for 989 yards, spending the past four seasons as Joe Mixon‘s backup in Cincinnati.
However, the Broncos wasted little time in free agency, signing the 236-pound battering ram to a two-year, $7.5 million contract as a hedge to the franchise’s bet that Williams will return healthy. What may have caught Denver’s attention was how Perine performed in the two-and-a-half games the Bengals were without Mixon last year. In those contests as the primary back, Perine rushed 49 times for 194 yards, caught 14 passes for 136 yards and scored four touchdowns.
With all the veteran backs the left Denver in the offseason, they brought only one in, and that should carry a lot of weight in how Perine is viewed by the organization.
Tony Jones Jr.
He has averaged just 2.7 yards in 67 career carries and hasn’t offered anything as a receiver. The best thing he has going for him is that he started his career with the New Orleans Saints when Payton was the head coach. He impressed the coaching staff in New Orleans and, while it hasn’t translated into on-field production, it seems clear that Payton still sees something in him. He will be competing with first-year pro Tyler Badie for a backup role.
Fantasy football outlook
If not for the knee injury, Williams would likely be a high-end RB2. As it currently stands, many will dramatically drop his fantasy value. His current ADP number finds him at the very back end of the RB3 category, where he likely should be given the uncertainty of his return.
The player who should be on fantasy radars is Perine. He has proved to be durable and made the most of his opportunity in Cincinnati when pushed into the spotlight last year. If the Broncos ease Williams back into a workload, not only could Perine open the season as the starter, but he could command a time-share in the backfield for which Payton is famous after Williams returns. He’s consistently being drafted as an RB4 in most early drafts and could be a steal if he stays in that position.
Jones and Badie currently have no fantasy value, but if Williams has a setback, that could change.
