Rising sea levels, stronger storms and increased erosion are making life on the coast riskier and more unpredictable. For potential buyers or renters, particularly in the wake of another winter of storms and flooding, questions around whether to invest in coastal properties are more urgent now than ever.
The desire to understand flood risk before committing to a seaside home is understandable, but assessing that risk isn’t always straightforward. Knowing how people perceive these risks, however, will help scientists better communicate such risks.
We surveyed over 700 UK residents in a nationwide study to understand how access to flood prediction maps, which indicate the relative risk of flooding for areas based on factors like sea-level rise, storm surges, and local topography, affected their housing preferences. These maps are typically available through government websites and are often consulted during the home-buying process via online property listings or planning reports.
The results were striking. Once people were shown flood risk maps, their preferences changed decisively – away from scenic seafront properties and towards locations that were inland and considered to be “safe”.
However, while this change in preference seems rational, it reveals a deeper underlying problem: flood risk is not being communicated clearly or effectively in the UK. Many people in our study treated flood maps as if their predictions were absolute and misinterpreted areas at risk of flooding as being exposed to actual flooding. In reality, these maps are based on mathematical models with varying degrees of complexity and uncertainty.
Some widely used models are simple and treat flooding as a result of land elevation alone. Others are more complex and attempt to simulate how floodwater spreads over land. Unsurprisingly, these models can produce conflicting results.
In our survey, participants were shown multiple flood maps for the same town produced by different models. Confusion quickly followed, as different models reported different flood risks for the same areas. The uncertainty led to significant risk-averse behaviour.
This change in how people choose where to live matters, not just for individual property decisions but for entire coastal economies. If potential buyers avoid seafront homes en masse due to unclear or alarming flood maps, local property markets will probably suffer. So might businesses that rely on local footfall. Meanwhile, some renters, especially younger ones or those on lower incomes, might still take on flood-prone properties without fully understanding the long-term risks or securing adequate insurance. So, what can be done?
Making sense of flood maps
Flood prediction maps need to be presented and communicated more clearly. Instead of technical jargon, plain language and relatable visuals on flood maps will help people understand the level of risk and what it actually means. Colour-coded maps are a good start, but they should also explain what the colours represent, and how likely the worst-case scenarios really are.
The general public, including prospective property buyers, need to be educated on how to read and interpret these maps. Currently, flood information is often tucked away in legal documents during conveyancing or buried in dense government websites. Instead, it should be part of the house-hunting process: visible, accessible and accompanied by guidance.
Policymakers and real estate professionals must recognise the psychological impact of flood predictions. Overstating risk can cause panic; understating it can leave people unprepared. The goal should be to empower people instead of scaring them, by balancing transparency with nuance.
Flood models are a vital tool for understanding and managing flood risks in a changing climate. But they are only as effective as our ability to understand and use them wisely. Our research highlights that it’s not just about having the data – it’s about making that data work for real people making life-changing decisions.
So, before buying or renting that dream seafront home, check the flood maps – and carefully ask and consider what’s behind them. Be curious about what kind of model was used, how recent the data is and what the uncertainties are. With clearer information and better public understanding, coastal communities can more easily adapt – not abandon – our treasured seaside towns.
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The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article.
