Stop me if you’ve heard this before: expect the Minnesota Vikings to be busy from now until free agency.
Due to the Vikings’ success in drafting first-round picks and their decision to trade for a top-tier tight end last season, general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah will be busy trying to keep the Vikings’ core together.
Wide receiver Justin Jefferson will be the priority, and rightfully so. Jefferson is one of the league’s best offensive players but has just two years left on his contract, setting up a perfect time to work on a long-term contract extension.
Offensive tackle Christian Darrisaw and edge rusher Danielle Hunter will likely see extensions as well, and there’s the ever-looming Kirk Cousins extension waiting in the wings.
And then, after all that, the Vikings will have to discuss Hockenson’s long-term future with the team.
Hockenson, 26, is entering a contract season and will likely look to be paid as one of the league’s best tight ends.
The Vikings could let him walk into free agency, but such an approach would be awful asset management after trading a 2023 second-round pick and 2024 third-round pick to the Detroit Lions for him at last season’s trade deadline.
If the Vikings choose to begin discussions on a long-term contract extension, how should they approach should a move, and what would the cap implications be for the extension?
How does Hockenson fit with the Vikings?
T.J. Hockenson is a nearly perfect fit in a Kevin O’Connell offense.
Hockenson is best as a secondary target in an offense and fits nicely with Justin Jefferson. With Jefferson attacking the intermediate parts of the field, the Vikings can attack the shorter areas with Hockenson.
Hockenson experienced a career low in yards per target with the Vikings (6.0) but also had an incredibly productive time in the offense. In ten games, Hockenson tallied 519 yards on 60 receptions. Averaging both numbers over a 17-game stretch would give Hockenson an incredibly respectful season of 882 yards on 102 receptions.
While it’s likely nothing, it’s worth mentioning the Vikings signing free agent tight end Josh Oliver in the off-season.
Oliver was a backup tight end in Baltimore last season, but the Vikings gave him the contract of a tight end that will see the field more often.
Will that come at the expense of Hockenson? It’s unlikely, but the Vikings mainly operated in 11 personnel (one running back, one tight end) last season, meaning they’ll either have to use more 12 personnel looks or keep one on the bench.
A look at the Vikings cap situation
Cap space outlooks are always fluid, so take these numbers with a grain of salt.
The Vikings are projected to have $53 million in open cap room for the 2024 season, meaning they should have some money to spend on free agents.
However, that money doesn’t include potential extensions for Kirk Cousins or Hockenson, both free agents in 2024.
For the sake of simplicity, let’s operate with just Hockenson’s extension.
Using past extensions as a baseline, let’s assume the Vikings offer Hockenson a 4-year extension worth around $56 million, similar to Baltimore’s Mark Andrews. This is what managing editor Tyler Forness predicted the extension look like.
Andrews’ cap hit was $9 million in 2022, but that number quickly balloons to over $13 million in 2023. The final two years of the extension will have Andrews count for $16 million against the cap.
Using a similar cap hit structure, Hockenson’s extension would drop the Vikings’ available cap space to $44 million in 2024. That figure would not include free-agent signings (K.J. Osborn and Ezra Cleveland) or other extensions (Justin Jefferson).
That figure assumes that Hockenson is willing to become the fifth-highest-paid tight end in the NFL. There’s a real possibility that Hockenson pushes to become the highest-paid tight end in football or close to it. That approach would increase his cap hit in 2024 and beyond.
What about the franchise tag?
Last season, the Jacksonville Jaguars chose to franchise tag Evan Engram despite the two heading toward a potential extension.
That move gave the Jaguars an extra year of evaluation on Engram at a slightly-elevated cap hit of $11.3 million. That move makes Engram the 6th-ranked tight end in terms of cap hit.
Could the Minnesota Vikings use a similar approach on Hockenson?
OverTheCap projects the 2024 tight end franchise tag to be worth $13.642 million. Teams can’t manipulate the franchise tag, so Hockenson would account for $13.642 million against the cap.
That number would put Hockenson at 9th in the NFL, directly behind Darren Waller of the Giants.
Giving Hockenson the franchise tag is an inherent risk, though. If Hockenson has an incredible 2024, his potential extension would be higher. However, it would also offer the Vikings some protection.
Hockenson avoided injury in 2022 but saw two of his professional seasons end with an injury.
In 2019, Hockenson suffered an ankle sprain in week 13 that kept him out for the rest of the year. Hockenson then missed the final five games of 2021 with a thumb fracture.
It’s not fair to call Hockenson injury prone, but it is worth paying attention to. A franchise tag could allow the Vikings to see how Hockenson’s health holds up over two seasons before offering a long-term extension.
Frankly, such an approach is wise. If Hockenson doesn’t end up being a long-term fit with Minnesota, they can let him hit free agency after the 2024 season. If he is the perfect second option, a long-term extension likely won’t be league-altering.
Prediction
As of late June, it feels likely that the Vikings will offer Hockenson a long-term extension.
While the figures are hard to pinpoint, an extension would make Hockenson one of the five highest-paid tight ends in the NFL and could see him become one of the three highest-paid.
That’s not a bad idea either. Hockenson fits the Shanahan-adjacent offense to a T and is still reaching his physical prime. Now is the perfect time for the Vikings to extend him, especially if they choose to operate with a quarterback on his rookie contract.
Playing armchair general manager, however, a franchise tag is the approach that makes more sense.
Hockenson’s 2024 cap hit likely wouldn’t be significantly different from the franchise tag number in an extension, and tagging him offers the Vikings an easy out.
