The Matildas’ Women’s World Cup hopes will be on the line when they take on Canada in Melbourne on Monday. The team’s loss to Nigeria on Thursday leaves Australia in third in Group B, on three points, behind Nigeria and Canada on four points apiece.
If the Matildas beat Canada, it will guarantee progression to the round of 16. Lose and their campaign is over, while a draw would put Australia’s fate in the hands of Ireland.
Matildas beat Canada
Despite the devastation on Thursday, Australia’s destiny remains in their own hands. A win over Canada will send the Matildas to six points, securing a spot in the first knock-out round.
If Australia win and Nigeria lose or draw against Ireland, the Matildas will take top spot in Group B. That will lead to a clash with the runner-up from Group D in Sydney the following week – likely Denmark, Haiti or China.
But if Nigeria defeat Ireland, they will go top of the group with an unassailable seven points – leaving Australia in second. The Matildas would then face the winner of Group D, expected to be England, in a blockbuster clash in Brisbane.
Matildas draw with Canada
The nerviest possible result on Monday would be a draw. That would leave Canada on five points and Australia on four points. Progression to the next round would be dependent on Ireland’s clash with Nigeria, played simultaneously in Brisbane. If Nigeria beat or draw with the Irish, who are to date winless in their debut World Cup, the Super Falcons and Canada would both progress – ending the Matildas’ hopes.
If Ireland beat Nigeria, however, the Matildas and Nigeria will end the group level on four points. Fifa’s tie-breaking rules then come into play. First, goal difference is used to separate the teams. The Matildas hold a goal difference of zero, to Nigeria’s one. A one-goal Irish victory would leave the teams level on goal difference. An Irish win by two goals or more would seal the Matildas’ progression.
If the teams are level on goal difference, the team with the greater numbers of goals scored is used to split them. Both teams have scored three goals to date. If the teams still cannot be distinguished, head-to-head results between the two will be used, meaning Nigeria go through.
Matildas lose to Canada
If the Australians fail to collect even a point against the Olympic champions, the home nation’s World Cup is over. A loss to Canada will consign the Matildas to their first group stage exit since the 2003 Women’s World Cup. If Ireland beat Nigeria, then subject to goal difference, the Matildas could even finish bottom of the group.
