The proposed stadium at Hobart's Macquarie Point would generate a loss of more than $300 million over 20 years of operation, according to a newly released cost-benefit analysis.
The analysis from MI Global Partners, commissioned by the Department of State Growth, was completed in November but was only published on the department's website on Wednesday.
It shows the cost of the Hobart stadium to be $1 billion, or $618.1 million in 2022 values when factoring in costs for construction, operation, and acquiring events.
Over the 20 years after construction is complete, MI Global Partners estimates the stadium will generate $1 billion, largely through tourism and financial benefits.
However, when taking into account the costs of paying interest on borrowing to fund the stadium, as well as alternative uses of that money, this was discounted to $311.9 million in 2022 values.
Overall, that equated to a $306 million loss, and a benefit-to-cost ratio of 0.5.
Tasmania's opposition said the analysis proved the stadium would be a waste of taxpayer funds.
"The government are claiming that by spending a billion dollars on a stadium in Hobart that they're going to be better able to fund health and education services," Labor leader Rebecca White told ABC Radio Hobart.
"This cost-benefit analysis proves that as a lie. This is an absolute dud of a project; it's not going to help fund the services Tasmanians rely on."
The report also outlines several additional social benefits that the author says should be considered, but cannot not be quantified in a cost-benefit analysis.
These include "civic and community pride", improving Hobart's brand, increased participation in sport, and the stadium becoming a "catalyst for broader invigoration of Macquarie Point".
The Tasmanian Greens urged Premier Jeremy Rockliff to scrap the stadium proposal entirely.
"At every step of the way we have a white elephant loss-making venture that would be an albatross around the neck of this island and it's people for a generation," Greens' leader Cassy O'Connor said.
"We are calling on Premier Rockliff to see sense and walk away from this."
Labor 'cherry-picking': Rockliff
The AFL has made a roofed stadium at Macquarie Point a condition for granting Tasmania a licence for its own AFL team.
The Tasmanian government has submitted a business case to the Commonwealth, asking for $240 million in federal funding for the project.
Tasmania would contribute $375 million and the AFL $15 million, for a total cost of $715 million.
Jeremy Rockliff said Labor was "cherry-picking" a figure from the cost-benefit analysis that suited its "anti-jobs argument".
"The figures that I'm seeing in the business case are very clear; $2.2 billion worth of economic activity generated, 4,200 jobs in construction, $300 million of economic return … during construction, and the opportunity to bring events to Tasmania, events that we are missing out on here in Tasmania right now."
The business case also said the stadium could generate $85 million in direct economic activity every year, and create 950 ongoing jobs after it is built.
Mr Rockliff said the cost-benefit ratio was similar to that of other stadia around Australia.
'Good value', economist says
Chief economist at the University of Technology Sydney Professor Tim Harcourt has previously analysed the economic effects of Tasmania getting an AFL team.
He said the cost-benefit report made him believe the stadium project could be more profitable than he had previously assumed.
"They've been a bit conservative in this report, I actually think the likely benefits are going to be a lot higher and the costs a lot less."
Professor Harcourt said using the stadium to host arts and entertainment events would maximise its value.
"When you look around the world at the cost of new stadiums that have been built recently, this is pretty good value."
"It's comparable to Adelaide Oval, which we know has been a great success, despite the fact that there were a lot of sceptics at the beginning who have now come on board."
