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AAP
AAP
Business
Jacob Shteyman

Dutton prays for rate cut as RBA enters conclave

There are high hopes Australia's mortgage belt will get a rate cut after the RBA meeting ends. (Darren England/AAP PHOTOS)

Opposition Leader Peter Dutton is hoping for a reduction in interest rates as the Reserve Bank board cloisters themselves away to contemplate a much-anticipated cut.

But even though money markets and a majority of economists are predicting a first cut in more than four years when the policy smoke billows from RBA's Martin Place conclave on Tuesday, borrowers are being warned not to expect major relief this year.

In an AAP survey of 32 Australian economists, 25 predicted the central bank to cut its cash rate target by 25 basis points, including independent economist Saul Eslake.

Mr Eslake said the RBA was unlikely to cut rates by as much as its peers, including central banks in Canada, NZ, the UK and the US, which have already begun their easing cycles in earnest.

"That's mainly because it didn't put them up by as much as those peers did, but also because fiscal policy is turning stimulatory in Australia," he told AAP.

Australia's peak cash rate of 4.35 per cent is significantly lower than the 5.5 per cent it reached in the US and 5.25 per cent in the UK, while the federal government is staring down the barrel of a decade of budget deficits following two consecutive surpluses.

Ongoing strength in the Australian economy (compared to Canada and NZ where high unemployment and recession are more pressing concerns) and the potential for Donald Trump's trade policies to spur global inflation again also made cuts less urgent, Mr Eslake said.

Mr Dutton said he hoped that there would be a cut, for the sake of Australians who had experienced 12 rate rises in this term of government.

"As the Reserve Bank governor points out, the Albanese government has spent an extra $350 billion and that money in the economy is what is driving inflation," he said. 

"It's not just your mortgage rates, but it's the price of groceries and it's the price of electricity and the price of gas. All of them are up by Mr Albanese."

But Treasurer Jim Chalmers said Australia's economy had made a lot of progress under his government.

"No matter what the independent Reserve Bank decides, our focus as the Albanese Labor government will continue to be the cost of living," he said. 

"In the almost three years that we've been in office, we've been able to get inflation down substantially, wages up and keep unemployment low and that is our focus."

Most economists predict a "shallow" easing cycle.

Reserve Bank Governor Michele Bullock in December
An AAP poll of 32 economists found 25 predict the RBA will cut interest rates by 25 basis points. (Steven Saphore/AAP PHOTOS)

While the path forward remains unclear, markets are pricing in just three 25bp cuts before the end of the year, but several economists, including ANZ's Adam Boyton, are predicting just two cuts.

Even if banks pass the rate cut on in full, mortgage holders are still likely to experience rates above five per cent for the foreseeable future, with the average variable mortgage rate currently at 6.51 per cent.

The Property Council of Australia called for the government to cap interest rates for first homebuyers purchasing a new build, by offering a guarantee for lenders.

"With cost-of-living pressures and housing affordability consistently the two issues of most concern for Australians, the government can and should use its balance sheet to support first-home buyers and the delivery of new homes," the council's chief executive Mike Zorbas said.

Under the proposal, which would apply only to people planning to live in the property, first homebuyers could expect to save up to $1087 every month and $13,044 annually, Mr Zorbas said.

"This policy requires zero up-front government spending and would be subject to appropriate credit checks and serviceability assessments, meaning future exposure will be minimal."

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