As President Donald Trump's tariff policies strike fear in the hearts of business leaders across the U.S., a handful of major retail CEOs are sounding relatively calm about the whole ordeal.
Last month, Trump threatened to impose across-the-board levies on Mexico, Canada and China. Although those North American partners have received two reprieves, the on-again-off-again policymaking is spooking the markets, especially after the president refused to rule out the possibility of those policies creating a recession later this year.
Some business leaders have issued dire warnings about the new tariffs, with Ford CEO Jim Farley going as far as to say they will “blow a hole in the U.S. industry that we have never seen.” But several retail CEOs have been downright sanguine about the prospect of a trade war on recent earnings calls, citing their diversified supply chains, and previous experience weathering tariffs.
"Tariffs are something we've managed for many years, and we'll just continue to manage that," said Walmart Inc CEO Doug McMillon last month. Home Depot CEO Ted Decker echoed that sentiment, saying "we've been through that before, and I think we have the best team to manage through any tariff environment which would impact the industry broadly.” Target chief Brian Cornell was equally even keeled last week, telling investors that the company has “managed through tariffs in the past.”
Many retailers were forced to negotiate tariffs during Trump’s first term. And they have also spent the past decade diversifying their supply chains, and expanding the number of countries from which they buy their merchandise. That’s particularly true for clothing-focused retailers like Abercrombie & Fitch and Gap, both of whom touted diversified geographical sourcing on recent earnings calls. Apparel made in China represented 34% of clothing imported to the U.S. in 2017, according to a Bloomberg analysis. By 2023, that number was down to 20%, as countries moved their production to places like Vietnam and Bangladesh.
But that’s not to say that all retail companies are feeling calm. Best Buy CEO Corie Barry said that while the company only directly imports 2% or so of what it sells, the rest coming from electronics vendors, the tariffs could cause a ripple effect that would ultimately hit consumers. "We expect our vendors across our entire assortment will pass along some level of tariff costs to retailers, making price increases for American consumers highly likely," Barry said. Best Buy estimates the tariffs could hit comparable sales in 2025 to the tune of 1%.
Grocery executives at Kroger ] also expect fresh food like lettuce to get more expensive, along with other staples that U.S. companies import from warmer Mexican climates during the winter. That applies to the burgeoning grocery businesses of big box retailers like Walmart and Target as well. Cornell said that if tariffs go into effect, consumers would see price hikes on items like fresh fruit and vegetables "within days."
No matter what happens with tariffs in the near future, Trump’s latest moves are prompting a number of U.S. companies to keep diversifying their overseas suppliers base. Hasbro CEO Chris Cocks told Wall Street analysts that the company was "on a path to move from 50% of our U.S. toy and game volume originating from China to under 40% over the next two years."
And despite the unruffled demeanor of America’s top retail CEOs, Wall Street's selloff on Monday suggests that trade wars could sink the economy into a recession. The National Retail Federation has estimated American consumers' spending power could fall by between $46 billion and $78 billion every year they are in place. And that does indeed have retail executives, even veterans of the tariff wars, watching closely.
"What we don't know is the potential consumer demand that's across the board based on how tariffs ripple across the economy," said Target finance chief Jim Lee.
