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HCA Healthcare, Inc. (HCA), valued at a market of $80.2 billion, is a top U.S. healthcare services provider specializing in operating hospitals and outpatient facilities across the U.S. The Nashville, Tennessee-based company offers a comprehensive range of medical services and innovative care solutions, catering to diverse patient needs through its extensive nationwide network of hospitals, clinics, and care facilities.
Shares of HCA Healthcare have trailed behind the broader market over the past year. Over the past 52 weeks, the stock gained 3.9% compared to the S&P 500 Index’s ($SPX) 22.8% returns. However, in 2025, HCA has shown renewed momentum, climbing 6.8% and edging past the SPX’s 4.5% year-to-date gain.
Yet, despite this uptick, the stock remains a step behind the SPDR S&P Health Care Services ETF (XHS). The exchange-traded fund has gained 14.2% over the past year and on a YTD basis.
On Jan. 24, HCA Healthcare released its Q4 earnings, with both its topline and bottom-line surpassing market estimates. Its Same-facility admissions increased by 3.0%, and emergency room visits rose by 2.4%. HCA shares jumped 6.1% in the following trading session.
For 2025, HCA projects EPS between $24.05 and $25.85 on revenue ranging from $72.8 billion to $75.8 billion. Despite mixed guidance for 2025 and operational disruptions from Hurricanes Helene and Milton. The company also raised its quarterly dividend to $0.72 per share and authorized an additional $10 billion share repurchase program.
For the current fiscal year, ending in December, analysts expect HCA’s EPS to grow 13.8% to $24.98 on a diluted basis. The company’s earnings surprise history is robust. It beat the consensus estimate in each of the last four quarters.
Among the 24 analysts covering HCA stock, the consensus rating is a “Moderate Buy,” a step down from “Strong Buy” three months ago. The current consensus is based on 17 “Strong Buy” ratings, one “Moderate Buy,” five “Holds,” and one “Strong Sell.”
On Jan. 27, RBC Capital Markets lowered HCA Healthcare’s price target from $405 to $384 while maintaining an “Outperform” rating. The firm noted the debate over the earnings quality due to Medicaid direct payment programs and hurricane-related disruptions but remains confident in HCA’s 2025 growth potential.
However, RBC trimmed its 2025 adjusted EBITDA estimate to $14.58 billion from $14.7 billion, citing regulatory uncertainties, including the pending status of Tennessee’s FY25 supplement under the new administration.
The mean price target is $383.05, representing a 19.5% premium compared to HCA’s current price levels. The Street-high price target of $438 suggests an ambitious upside potential of 36.6%.
