The race for the White House remains close with less than 40 days to go until Election Day. National polls suggest that either no candidate has a lead, and when they do, the gap is minimal. But when the focus goes to polls in some of the most consequential battleground states, Vice President Kamala Harris is seemingly performing with a lead in the vast majority of them.
A new poll by Bloomberg News/Morning Consult shows Harris with an advantage in all battleground states but Georgia. The study was conducted among 6,165 registered voters in seven swing states— Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin— between Sept. 19-25. The margin of error is plus or minus one percentage point across these states.
The data shows the Vice President is leading among likely voters by 7 percentage points in Nevada, 5 points in Pennsylvania, 3 points in Arizona, Michigan and Wisconsin, and 2 points in North Carolina. Georgia, however, remains a toss up, with the two candidates being tied.
Those leads are far from comfortable though, as the numbers and the constantly-fluctuating polls suggest that the race will ultimately be decided by narrow margins, Bloomberg argues.
In order to continue with the momentum, Harris needs to hammer down on the economy, the top priority issue for voters in battleground states and nationwide, the study suggests. But she is seemingly making inroads in this area, something that her predecessor, President Joe Biden, was highly struggling with.
Former President Donald Trump's advantage on the issue was just 4 percentage points in the early September poll, down from 6 points in August. Now, when likely voters were asked who they trust more to handle the cost of everyday goods, it was a virtual tie, with Trump standing at 47% to Harris' 46%.
Harris closing down her lead may be the result of a campaign that has focused on her middle class roots and how she plans to help the group, including pledges to build more affordable housing, offering down payment assistance to first-time home buyers, and a promise to make the wealthy pay more taxes.
The messaging seems to be working, as the Democratic nominee also has a notable 11-point advantage on who likely voters trust to help the middle class.
Trump's message on the economy, conversely, has recently taken the back-burner, with his campaign preferring to focus on advertisements prioritizing immigration and crime.
"Voters are beginning to give [Harris] the benefit of the doubt— and that's really significant," said Frank Luntz, a longtime GOP pollster. "Affordability is a top issue for voters, but Trump has failed to hold Harris to account or to tie her to Biden's inflation failures."
Another reason for this change may be the fact that Americans are feeling better about the economy, The Washington Post reports. Prices are stabilizing, interest rates are coming down and wages are rising faster than inflation. At the same time, voters seem to view Harris as a clean slate, unburdened by the rapid run-up in prices that has plagued Biden for much of his presidency.
Nevertheless, another top issue for voters— immigration— continues to be a vulnerability for the Harris campaign. Trump still enjoys a 14-point trust advantage among likely voters on that topic, even after a debate where he repeated false rumors about migrants in Springfield, Ohio and Aurora, Colorado.
As both campaigns embark on their last 40 days, if Harris' support remains at or above 50% in key battleground states, Trump will have a hard time returning to the White House, with his best option being bringing new likely voters into the electorate to overtake her bid, something that analysts don't see as impossible.
"Donald Trump's political magic, when he's been on the ballot, is to bring in voters from the periphery who may not be in likely voter samples," said Eli Yokley, US politics analyst for Morning Consult.
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