The 2024 Presidential election has gone from déjà vu to a whole new ball game—and it is time to reconsider all the assumptions about what factors and which voters will decide the outcome of this race.
While we don’t yet know exactly how the presumptive nominee Kamala Harris and Donald Trump will campaign for the presidency, we do know precisely which voters a winning campaign will need to engage and persuade to come out on top in November.
This year, polls have consistently indicated that younger, unmarried voters are a crucial demographic for both Democratic and Republican campaigns alike. These voters have only known a digital world, where anything they want or need is just a click away, including a date. One out of every seven voters has used Tinder in the last year.
Polling firms Global Strategy Group and Tunnl teamed up for an independent, nonpartisan survey commissioned by Match Group that focused on studying the attitudes of young, single voters who recently used an online dating app—we call them “Tinder singles.” Young voters generally express lower motivation to show up at the polls when compared to their older, married counterparts. However, our survey found that Tinder singles, who represent 44% of all single voters under 36, buck that trend—they are highly engaged.
Eighty percent of Tinder singles say that politics are important to their personal identity, compared to just 59% of young, voting-age Americans not on Tinder. This level of political and electoral engagement shows that these individuals are a key voter bloc that will determine who will win or lose the upcoming election.
One of the most striking characteristics of Tinder singles is their uncommon political fluidity. Unlike older, married voters who are more likely to view elections through a rigid partisan lens, Tinder singles are more persuadable.
General assumptions about Tinder singles and party alignment with the Democratic Party appear to be outdated with a growing number identifying as independent or Republican. This fluidity means that Tinder singles are not locked into any one side or one viewpoint, making them an extremely strategic voting bloc that could offer success to the party or candidate that can motivate them to vote. These are not party-line voters—they are issue voters and their participation will depend on whether candidates speak to their issue-based concerns.
The study also shows that the gender gap among Tinder singles is growing, with young, single women drifting further from their male counterparts politically. While women Tinder singles are more likely to identify as Democrats or liberals (57% of our female respondents leaned Democrat, compared to 42% of men), our research reveals nearly half of women Tinder singles say they might not even vote in the upcoming election. Young, single women are particularly disillusioned with the political process, with 58% believing politicians are more likely to ignore them. This apathy is a critical issue that all campaigns must address, as this group’s political involvement will significantly impact the election's outcome.
Tinder singles are not single-issue voters. They care deeply about broad economic issues, inflation, cost of living, jobs, wages, and reproductive freedoms topping their list of concerns. Notably, issues specifically around reproductive rights have emerged as a critical deal-breaker, especially for the group of young women seeking a reason to vote, with 30% citing abortion and reproductive rights as a top deal-breaker issue. Addressing these concerns and issues is key for any campaign.
Winning campaigns are defined not just by a clear, compelling message but also by identifying the voters it can mobilize. Twenty years ago, when George W. Bush was running for reelection, he expanded his base by targeting working-class white men, and the idea of “NASCAR dads” was born. When President Obama ran for reelection in 2012, he had to win over the so-called “Walmart moms,” who had largely voted for him in 2008 but were now facing economic challenges and working to stretch every dollar.
Like Walmart moms and NASCAR dads before them, Tinder singles are uniquely positioned to determine the outcome of this election. As we approach the 2024 election, they represent a dynamic and influential group that could shape not only the election this November, but the political landscape for decades to come.
The high engagement of Tinder singles, combined with the possibility of this voting bloc sitting out makes them key to any successful campaign. Their engagement, persuadability, and distinct concerns mandate that this cohort be a critical focus for campaigns. In order to secure Tinder singles’ votes, or ensure that they vote at all, candidates must listen to and address their concerns. In an election as closely contested as this one is shaping up to be, the Tinder singles' votes could very well be the deciding factor that will determine who wins and who loses.
More must-read commentary published by Fortune:
- Women can’t fix the ‘broken rung’ unless they acknowledge the role they play in workplace bullying and discrimination
- Private equity is devouring the economy as boomer entrepreneurs exit—but a new approach to employee ownership can change that
- Gen Z’s enthusiasm for all things touchable is resurrecting the analog economy—and costing parents
- Nokia CEO: Europe shouldn’t be afraid to back its innovation champions
The opinions expressed in Fortune.com commentary pieces are solely the views of their authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions and beliefs of Fortune.
