Voters are less angry about the Morrison government’s handling of the pandemic than they were a fortnight ago, but a majority of respondents think the definition of full vaccination needs to be three jabs, not two, according to the latest Guardian Essential poll.
The survey of 1,069 voters has 40% of the sample (up from 35% a fortnight ago) rating Scott Morrison’s pandemic management as good, while 34% of respondents (down from 38%) characterised it as poor.
But while the prime minister on Monday confirmed Australia’s international border would be reopened from 21 February for double vaccinated tourists and travellers – 57% of poll respondents think the definition of fully vaccinated in Australia needs to be three jabs, not two (31% say it should be two and 12% are undecided).
The Victorian premier, Daniel Andrews, has been lobbying to change the current definition of full vaccination during recent national cabinet deliberations, but there has been no shift yet. The next national cabinet meeting is this Friday.
Morrison said the definition of fully vaccinated for international tourists would remain at two doses, even if the definition changed domestically, because the chief medical officer had advised two doses was “sufficient”.
Compulsion around vaccinations remains a politically fraught issue for the Coalition, with an insurgency building on the party’s right flank. With federal parliament resuming on Tuesday for a two-week sitting, Morrison is facing rolling public protests against vaccine mandates in Canberra.
A major rally is planned at parliament house on Tuesday, and the parliamentary leader of the United Australia Party, Craig Kelly, has signalled he could sign protesters into the building. Two government MPs, George Christensen and Gerard Rennick, have also indicated they will address the protests.
The prime minister has just endured a horror week. Last Tuesday, Morrison was blindsided when the Network 10’s political editor, Peter van Onselen, used a televised question and answer session at the National Press Club to reveal private criticism of the prime minister shared between the former New South Wales premier Gladys Berejiklian and an unnamed federal ministerial colleague.
Then it was revealed late last week that Barnaby Joyce labelled Morrison “a hypocrite and a liar” in a private text message sent before he returned to the leadership of the National party. After the damaging leak, Morrison and Joyce closed ranks and characterised their relationship as amicable and productive.
Morrison is attempting to rally his troops for an election within months. The latest Guardian Essential survey has the Coalition on a primary vote of 37% and Labor on 35% with the Greens on 9%, One Nation on 4%, independents on 5%, the United Australia party on 2% – with 8% of respondents undecided.
Voting intention figures calculated by Guardian Essential now express the head-to-head metric of the major party contest as two-party preferred “plus”. This change in methodology, adopted after the 2019 election, highlights the proportion of undecided voters in any survey, providing accuracy on the limits of any prediction.
Labor is on 47%, the Coalition on 46%, with 8% of respondents undecided in the latest two party preferred “plus” measure. Earlier in the summer, with Morrison under heavy political fire because of pandemic management missteps, Labor’s lead blew out to 50% to 43% on 2PP+ with 8% undecided.
Guardian Essential has only been publishing the head-to-head metrics on a quarterly basis since the last federal election. But given the proximity of the contest, these figures will now be reported fortnightly.
As well as a modest rally for Morrison during the past fortnight, the latest poll suggests the NSW Perrottet government has also recovered some of its lost standing with voters after the significant surge in new Covid cases and deaths during the Omicron summer.
In mid-December, 54% of respondents approved of the state government’s management of Covid-19, but that crashed to 37% by the end of January. In the latest data, 44% of respondents rate the state government’s response as good.
State governments in Queensland and South Australia also saw positive shifts in voter sentiment about pandemic management in the past two weeks, but the Victorian government went backwards, with 47% of respondents characterising management of the pandemic as good at the end of January compared with 42% this fortnight.
The latest poll indicates Morrison has political vulnerabilities beyond pandemic management. The data indicates 38% of respondents are less likely to vote for the Coalition because of rising cost of living pressure, and 37% say the same about the government’s lack of a credible climate change policy.
But the data indicates another issue Morrison has focused on – greater regulation of social media platforms – is salient with voters. Significant majorities agree with the proposition that digital platforms have a duty of care to protect users and people should not be permitted to hide their identities through the use of anonymous accounts.
Parliament will open on Tuesday with a statement of acknowledgment. Last year Australia’s sex discrimination commissioner Kate Jenkins in a landmark review of parliament’s toxic workplace culture recommended political leaders make a public statement acknowledging “the impact of the misconduct on individuals and the lack of action taken in the past” and “outline the institutional leadership commitment to change, with shared accountability for progress”.
Sorrow will be expressed at the opening of the day’s proceedings as well as the next steps in implementing recommendations from the review. The Jenkins inquiry was triggered after former Liberal staffer Brittany Higgins alleged she was raped after hours in a ministerial office in March 2019. Higgins’s allegations are the subject of separate criminal proceedings.
On Wednesday, Higgins will appear at the National Press Club in Canberra with former Australian of the Year and survivor advocate Grace Tame.
