As I reflect upon Wales' summer tour a few days on, my over-riding feeling is one of confusion about where we go from here heading towards the World Cup.
The question I ask myself is this: What did we learn? Not much, is the conclusion, I fear. And I say this despite the wonderful achievement of beating South Africa in their own backyard for the first time, a truly historic achievement by Wayne Pivac and his team.
The fact that we pushed the Springboks so close was down to defensive tenacity which then forced them into errors, more than anything else. But the truth is we can't win the World Cup, which has to be the ultimate aim, playing that way.
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South Africa weren't great either, but they can win the World Cup with that physical, defence first approach — they've already done it once — and they will get better as France 2023 draws nearer, shake the rustiness out of their system and not make the kind of mistakes which ensured the three Tests versus us were close. The Springboks can be pretty confident of nailing it once the real business begins, everything they are doing at the moment is a means to that end.
But I'm not sure which Wales will turn up — the one which flopped so woefully against Italy, the one which we expected to get a good hiding in South Africa yet who pushed the world champions so close, or the one which, for fleeting moments, showed us what they really are capable of this summer.
In Louis Rees-Zammit, Josh Adams and Liam Williams we have a back three as good as any in world rugby, and they're supplemented further by having the power running and threat of George North just inside. Yet how often did we try to get the ball to them in space?
The best rugby we produced was off the cuff in the first few minutes of the opening Test, when Rees-Zammit showed what he can do when provided with try-scoring opportunities. There was also something of a purple spell during a brief period in the final Test, when we tried to keep the ball away from contact, which surely has to be the way forward.
When Stephen Jones came on board as Wayne Pivac's number two we expected a Wales team which would play flowing rugby, get away from the Warren-ball approach ingrained in the minds for so may years. Yet if we're being truthful, how often have we seen a change in style?
We can't just defend, defend, defend and hope to win big matches that way. Sometimes, particularly with the talent we possess behind, you just have to go for the jugular more.
Our riches in the back row speaks for itself. The emergence of Tommy Reffell, on top of the previous emergence of Taine Basham and Jac Morgan, plus the older hands like Taulupe Faletau, Justin Tipuric, Dan Lydiate, Josh Navidi and Ross Moriarty, give us an embarrassment of riches there.
What with those talented backs and those back-row options, Pivac has a lot of stardust to work with here. His issue, I guess, is nailing down the tight five, the platform from which everything else revolves. Wyn Jones and Tomas Francis are our best scrummaging props, but they're unable to carry the ball like we see from the South African or Irish forwards.
Rhys Carre and Dillon Lewis are good in the loose, but I'm fearful we're going to give away a penalty, and thus momentum, field position and points, every time there is a scrum. Rob Evans looked the answer to me, but then he appeared to lose his way in my view by concentrating on being a ball-handler rather than a ball-carrier until he fell by the wayside quite dramatically. Dewi Lake looks really dynamic at hooker, but like Carre and Lewis I worry he's missing in a fundamental skill set (in his case, throwing into the lineout).
I like Will Rowlands. He has enhanced his reputation further on this tour and he, at least, does carry. Adam Beard blows hot and cold next to him, while Alun Wyn Jones' role moving forward, it seems, is utilising his experience and know-how from the replacements bench.
The training ground moves are based on having a perfect set piece and the perfect outcome. The same applies as much now with Liam Williams, Rees-Zammit and Josh Adams as it did in the '70s with JPR, JJ and Gerald so they could work their magic. You could say the same about any era you prefer too, such as in Shane Williams' day. Even Jamie Roberts, who was the fundamental part of Gatland’s Warren-ball strategy, worked better off a decent set piece.
So much relies on having, at the very least, an adequate set piece in order to achieve your overall strategy and major objectives. Not only that, but there aren’t so many set pieces these days. Thus if you botch it up you may not just miss your opportunity to achieve your objective, you even lose possession completely which means the opposition are in control until they make a mistake and, subsequently, you can be without the ball for a fair time.
Trouble is that whilst training ground moves are practised from that perfect set piece (subsequently achieving the perfect outcome), on the playing field when under match pressure, lineouts and scrums must at the very least be adequate to have a chance of achieving this. However, the opposition will have other ideas. It only takes a slight slip-up in the scrum, or a poor throw in the lineout from someone like young Lake, and the whole thing can start to crumble.
We’ve got to a couple of World Cup semi-finals in recent years and we’ve won many friends with our resolve in defence and never-give-in attitude, mainly because we’ve been chasing the game rather than being in control. I felt that our best chance was in 2011 when our set pieces stood up to scrutiny. If it hadn’t been for Sam Warburton’s red card versus France we would no doubt have got to the final and the All Blacks were there for the taking that year.
Unfortunately, unless there is a huge improvement in the reliability of our set-piece and the ball-carrying ability of our forwards, I fear we'll find the going tough this time.
It takes quite a long time for a tight forward to mature. Over the years we’ve had some very good lower age group teams and some skilful players have been produced. It’s one thing to introduce a 19 or 20-year-old wing into senior rugby and expect him to compete successfully and achieve his potential earlier. However, a front row forward is a totally different proposition. You can’t introduce a 20-year-old prop into international rugby on the basis that he looks impressive with the ball in his hands. Bonus skills are great, but only when he’s got a good grasp of the absolute basics of his position.
If the current crop of young front row forwards were brought up in the way that is best for them, they would be ready not for the next Rugby World Cup but the one in 2027. The Premier Division is the place where they need to concentrate on developing their skills and to gain experience. They should have it impressed on them that they are, after all, front row forwards and not overweight back-rowers.
Our two best tight forwards, at the moment, Francis and Rowlands, were developed in the English system. Perhaps that's telling.
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