Last month was the hottest January on record, according to Europe's climate monitor, despite predictions that the La Nina weather pattern could break last year’s streak of record-breaking temperatures.
Heat has lingered since the warming El Nino event peaked in January 2024, and January 2025 hit a record at 1.75 degrees Celsius hotter than pre-industrial times, the Copernicus Climate Change Service said Thursday.
Climate scientists had expected the historical high temperatures in 2024 to drop as the cooling La Nina took over from El Nino, so there is now debate about what other factors could be driving the rising temperatures.
La Nina is expected to be weak and Copernicus said temperatures in parts of the equatorial Pacific Ocean suggested "a slowing or stalling of the move towards" the cooling phenomenon.
Why is the heat persistent?
Scientists are unanimous that burning fossil fuels have largely driven long-term global warming, but there are questions about which human activities are impacting year-to-year natural variability.
One theory about the current continuing heat is that a global shift to cleaner shipping fuels in 2020 accelerated warming by reducing sulphur emissions that make clouds more reflect more sunlight.
Last month, Copernicus said that global temperatures averaged across 2023 and 2024 had exceeded the warming target set by the Paris climate accord of 1.5C for the first time.
While not a permanent breach of the limit, persistent high temperatures are a clear sign that it is being tested.
Focus on oceans
Scientists warn that every fraction of a degree of warming above 1.5C increases the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events like heat waves, droughts and heavy rainfall.
Copernicus said it would be closely monitoring ocean temperatures throughout 2025 for hints about how the climate might behave.
Oceans are key to regulate the climate and they are a carbon sink, with cooler able to absorb greater amounts of heat from the atmosphere, helping to lower air temperatures.
They also store 90 percent of the excess heat trapped by humanity's release of greenhouse gases.
(with AFP)
