D-Day has finally arrived for Gerry Hutch, who is said to be so confident he will be found not guilty - that he already has his flights booked.
He’s spent over a year in custody in Dublin’s Wheatfield Prison, but on Monday ‘The Monk’ believes he will walk out the doors of the Special Criminal Court a free man.
If that happens it is likely Hutch, who remains a top target of the Kinahan cartel, will be facilitated with a swift exit out the side exit of the courts building - in the same way his nephew Patrick did in 2019.
He’s then expected to almost immediately head to Spain - free from the possibility of further arrest or the threat of the cartel.
READ MORE: Gerry 'The Monk' Hutch sent bagfuls of good luck cards ahead of Special Criminal Court verdict
If things don’t go his way then it’s back to his restricted landing in Wheatfield Prison, and a mandatory life sentence - which he may one day get to serve in Spain, awaits.
But what exactly is in store this morning is anyone’s guess.
Covering the trial from the beginning I can tell you that there is no ‘smoking gun’ in the case against Gerard Hutch.
However that doesn’t mean the judges won't decide that there is compelling evidence to convict him of the murder of David Byrne.
In the end there are two main strands of evidence in this case - what’s said in a bugged 10 hour conversation - and the claims of State witness Jonathan Dowdall.
Coupled together with the events before, at and after the shooting in the Regency Hotel, the State says there can be no doubt that The Monk was ‘one of the two’ gunmen dressed as gardai who shot and killed Byrne that day.
And in particular if Ms Justice Tara Burns, Judge Grainne Malone and Judge Sarah Berkeley find Dowdall’s claims credible, then Gerry Hutch is in real trouble.
Dowdall has supplied to the court what is termed ‘direct evidence,’ in that he is giving a first-hand account of alleged instances he had with the accused that the judges can determine to be credible or not.
By now most people know of Dowdall’s claim that he met with Hutch in Ellenfield Park in Whitehall either two or three days after the Regency shooting.
The judges might decide that the questions around the exact timing of this incident are legitimate - given that Dowdall folded on the witness stand when challenged that phone evidence did not corroborate his claims.
But even that might not matter.
If the judges decide that the essence of the story, in that Dowdall claims Hutch confessed to murder to him in the days following the shooting, is true, then that spells a guilty verdict.
They are likely to have forensically examined every word Dowdall said to gardai when he came forward in 2022, and in his incredible, but oftentimes meandering cross-examination on the witness stand.
The judges may decide that Dowdall is not a reliable narrator when it comes to other evidence in the case - but if they believe him on the park confession, then that’s it.
Then when it comes to the tapes you have to remember that this was considered enough to charge ‘The Monk’ with murder in the first place.
It was on that evidence that Hutch was quite dramatically returned to Ireland in a military jet and ushered into the Special Criminal Court late in the evening of September 27, 2021.
The Director of Public Prosecutions determined Hutch could be charged with the murder of David Byrne on the basis of the tapes which were secretly recorded by members of the Garda National Surveillance Unit (NSU) on March 9, 2016.
The tapes formed the primary evidence against Hutch in the absence of Dowdall, who only came forward with new information months before the trial got underway.
Hutch’s words on the tapes of handing three “yokes” over as a “present” just two days before the rifles used in the Regency were moved is admittedly a powerful piece of evidence.
The State says the tapes make it clear that Gerry Hutch is “the man in charge” of these weapons and is talking about having them moved just days before they actually are.
It’s this evidence, coupled with the fact that the rifles ended up being found in possession of IRA man Shane Rowan - who Hutch was snapped meeting with weeks prior, that the prosecution says point to his guilt.
But that’s not all.
The trial lasted 13 weeks but it was only in that final week that the prosecution stated out loud that another crucial part of the tape is also tantamount to a confession.
The State claims that an almost seemingly throw-away line from Hutch to Dowdall on the tape of “Yeah he knows, yeah” is an admission to involvement in the Regency Hotel shooting.
That is because Dowdall is just seconds earlier asking ‘The Monk’ whether he told a person they met up north that it was “them” at the Regency.
A taped 'confession' might be considered more powerful evidence than an alleged witnessed one, should the judges accept the prosecution's narrative.
This was a lengthy and detailed trial that encompassed hours of CCTV, a 10 hour tape, hundreds of witnesses, unparalleled garda manpower and plenty of twists and turns.
At times it was difficult to follow, and some of the evidence often pointed in the direction of other people as opposed to Gerry Hutch himself.
What was particularly jarring was the revelation that no evidence would ever be presented to the trial, one way or the other, as to the exact whereabouts of Gerry Hutch on the day of the murder itself.
There was no CCTV evidence in relation to this and no witness to state they could definitively say where Hutch was on February 5 - let alone that he was even in the country.
But in the end none of that even matters - only the evidence, and in particular those two strands of evidence.
In my mind at least there are still quite a lot of ‘ifs’ ‘buts’ and ‘maybes’ at the end of this case - despite an obviously meticulous investigation by the gardai.
And just like a jury the three judges of the Special Criminal Court have to find a person guilty ‘beyond all reasonable doubt.’
They are set to present their verdict in a lengthy, written judgement that will outline, in great detail their reasoning for their decision.
Unlike the rest of us, the judges have a knowledge of the case like no one else, and have spent the past three months combing over every single detail of it - listening to those lengthy tapes and re-examining witness testimony and the credibility of Dowdall.
In the end of the day their decision is the only one that matters here, and no matter the result, Hutch’s life is set to change dramatically.
The end of this trial also comes after years of hardship for the family of David Byrne, and for the many victims on both sides of the ruthless Kinahan Hutch feud.
Should Hutch be convicted of murder the final word will go to Byrne’s family, who have attended the trial almost every day - and will be afforded the opportunity to give victim impact statements.
It will also likely mean that others may end up facing trial in relation to Byrne’s murder - on the basis of Dowdall’s evidence.
But if that evidence is rejected, it will be hard to imagine there being any appetite to bring this matter before the courts again any time soon.
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